Arlington Closing Day - Pick 6 Carryover Sequence

If you love carryovers and turf racing, you need to play Arlington’s closing day Pick 6.

The Pick 6 has a $0.20 minimum bet, and it covers the last six races (races 7-12).  Every race in the sequence is a grass race, and none drew a field smaller than eleven horses.  So, it will be competitive, and it will pay if you’re right.  And, the pot is sweetened: there’s a $64,381 carryover leading into the final day, and there’s a mandatory payout since it’s closing day.

Here are my thoughts on the sequence, as well as my A/B/C/X chart.  Good luck, and let’s get a piece of that carryover!

Race 7: Maiden special weight, three-year-olds and up, one mile on the turf, post time 3:36pm CDT

  • A Horses:
    • 3 – Don’task Don’ttell – The bottom of the pedigree has some turf in it, and this is an easier bunch than the Million Day Undercard race last out.  The Chris Block trainee also gets the switch to top rider Jose Valdivia.
    • 10 – Milliner – Missed by a neck at this level last out, and cuts back from nine furlongs to eight.  Outside post is a drawback, but if he can run back to his last from a less favourable gate, he will be tough.  (Top Selection).
    • 11 – Rock Can Tour – The other Chris Block trainee, and gets Jose Lopez aboard; Lopez has been getting Block’s serious mounts lately.  Outside post isn’t great, but Hansens can wake up first-time turf, and his dam has produced a turf winner already.
  • B Horses:
    • 5 – Travel West – Brian Williamson doesn’t often pop off such a long lay, but when he does, it’s at a price.  He tries turf for the first time, and gets strong maiden rider (and Williamson’s “A” pilot) Edgar Perez in the saddle.
  • C Horses:
    • 2 – Crown Moment – The “other” Brian Williamson.  Will have to run his best first off the lay, but his odds will be massive, his one good race has been his one turf try, and he gets pace to chase.
    • 4 – Andreas – Taking a huge step up in class, and wasn’t competitive in special weight company before, but barn popped last week with a marginal maiden claimer in special weight company (Americanperfection), and James Graham is excellent on the Arlington sod.
    • 9 – Channel Won – This son of English Channel showed signs of life last out, going first-time turf, and he gets Mitchell Murrill here.  Still needs a step forward, and won’t have it easy up front.
  • X Horses:
    • 1 – Thunder Down Under – The son of Lonhro is showing some turf aptitude, but has shown an abiding love of finishing second.  Use under; don’t waste the money on top.
    • 6 – The Shoe – He’s a first-timer, and the breeding doesn’t scream grass.  Wait, see, and take this as a screw-tightener for Hawthorne.
    • 7 – Lovingrdsimmar – Second off the lay, but needs too big a leap forward in order to be competitive against these foes.
    • 8 – Drayke’s Channel – Emerging as a career maiden, and won’t have a free lunch on the front end.

Race 8: Steve Morgan Memorial Stakes, three-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, one mile on the turf, post time 4:08pm CDT

For detailed analysis of this race, as well as the Les Ahrens Memorial Stakes (race 6), read our preview.

  • A Horses:
    • 6 – Shelbysmile – She likes a mile, will like having plenty of speed in front of her, and even though she has been on the shelf since May she has shown the ability to fire fresh.
    • 7 – Lovely Loyree – With a lot of speed in this race, this classy mare is the most trustworthy to rate off of it.  She has been laid off since June, but can run well off a lay.
    • 13 – America Mon Amie – She races her best distance, gets the right pace setup, and has been in excellent form this summer.  (Top Selection)
  • B Horses:
    • 10 – Prado’s Sweet Ride – The post is suboptimal, a concern for a horse likely to go off at as short a price as she will, but she takes a big step down from a proper Grade 1 last out and her ability to rate and rally will serve her well.
  • C Horses:
    • 1 – Daddy’s Boo – The price will be short, and she won’t have it easy up front.  But, she does benefit from the scratch of Sweetbaby, and comes out for top connections over a course and distance she loves.
    • 4 – Seeking Treasure – Her late-running style could logically get her in the frame, though only her very best would give her a win chance.
    • 11 – One Last Shot – Can rate and rally under rider Mitchell Murrill.  But, has to fire her absolute best from a suboptimal gate, and does lose speedy stablemate Sweetbaby.
  • X Horses:
    • 2 – Paint the Corners – She is solid enough at a mile, but this looks a tough spot for her second off the lay, and she may well be in to make pace for stablemate America Mon Amie.
    • 3 – Stormin Elle – She would find this field tough at her best, and she is not at her best right now.
    • 5 – Some Say So – She is competitive against Minnesota-breds, and has hit the exacta in all four career turf mile tries, but this field is a world tougher than anything she has seen.  Without a massive step forward, she is just too slow.
    • 8 – Sweetbaby – She showed all the grit in the world when holding One Liz at bay last out, but these are tougher mares and the early going will not be so easy.  May be a pacesetter for One Last Shot.
    • 9 – Felt In Pocket – Her consistency leaves much to be desired, and she needs a massive step up to have a shot here.
    • 12 – Inconclusive – It’s been a long time since she has won, and these are the toughest horses she has faced since Fair Grounds.  The pace scenario suits her late-running style, but a minor award is the best realistic result here.
    • 14 – Disqualified – May be a brief pace factor if she fires one of her sharper efforts, but she is in over her head here.

Race 9: Illinois-bred allowance, three-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, non-winners of $9,800 once other than maiden, claiming, or starter OR non-winners of a state-bred race other than maiden, claming, or starter OR N2L, one and one sixteenth miles on the turf, post time 4:40pm CDT

  • A Horses:
    • 3 – Applesolutely True – She loses Jose Valdivia to Tannah’blu, but otherwise, there’s a lot to like.  She has blossomed at two turns on the grass, and should be able to sit off the pace and rally in time.
    • 9 – Tannah’blu – The light came on last out, and she made a sharp rally in that start.  She keeps Jose Valdivia aboard from that outing, and the extra sixteenth of a mile should suit.  Yes, she was a well-beaten second behind Mallory’s Channel at this distance two back — but that foe won’t have a free lunch up front as she did that day.  (Top Selection)
    • 11 – Jolee – First time Lasix, second off the lay, and a clever condition book fit (since she already has that open first-level allowance win).  The daughter of Lemon Drop Kid tries grass for the first time, and there’s enough turf in her pedigree to suggest she’ll handle it.
  • B Horses:
    • 7 – Curlinup – Her turf try three back was not bad, and she gets firm going here, not the yielding turf like that day.  Rider Jose Lopez did the best he could with no pace target in the Avers Wexler Memorial Stakes last out, and gets the chance to face state breds with more pace in front today.
    • 10 – Chlobee – Needs a step forward, but between getting pace in front of her and getting a jockey upgrade to Santo Sanjur, she has every right to take that step.
  • C Horses:
    • 2 – Pura Lica – Has not won since her debut last year, so it’s hard to love her on top.  But, she gets a pace target, and she did run a race two back (in her first try on turf, and at this same level and distance) that would make her a contender here.
    • 8 – Chica Bonita – This is a step up in class, but her late-running style should help, and James Graham will be an asset in the irons.  Not a horse you can take for chalk — but her best fits, and stepping up from a $5,000 starter allowance last out, she will not be chalk.
  • X Horses:
    • 1 – Kalispell – Not much of a win sort, and won’t dictate the early terms.  This makes her unlikely to finish the job.
    • 4 – Goddess of Kip – She’s 41: 3-14-7 lifetime.  She’s great at rallying for a piece underneath, even against these state-bred allowance sorts, but not so great at making good when included in the top rung.
    • 5 – Mallory’s Channel – One-way speed, and nowhere near the sharpest of it.
    • 6 – Americanperfection – Took a big step forward to graduate nine days ago, and needs another leap forward here to contend.  Even at a price, it’s hard to argue she’ll take another leap forward when wheeling back so quickly.
    • 12 – Royalty Princess – Should be a pace factor early, but unlikely to get the distance with several others here who are fast early.
    • 13 – Cooper’s Keeper – Also eligible.  If she draws in, the outside post does her no favours, and barring some key scratches this frontrunner will have no easy time on the lead.

Race 10: $10,000 claiming, three-year-olds and up, N2L, five and a half furlongs on the turf, post time 5:12pm CDT

  • A Horses:
    • 8 – Kit Check – Distance is the question, as he has done most of his work at two turns, but the kick he showed in his one career turf sprint (when up for three times this price) makes him a threat here.  (Top Selection)
    • 9 – Oscarific – Returns to the grass, and the $10,000 level, after being competitive on polytrack for twice the price last out.  Two back, he missed by a neck at this level and distance, and his off-pace style fits here.
  • B Horses:
    • 1 – Solanair – Won’t have it easy up front, but a competitive third at this level last out suggests he may not need it.  Does his best work with Mitchell Murrill aboard, and Murrill takes the call today.
    • 12 – Changn Fivehundred – His toughest test yet, but he is fast enough to make the step from maidens to winners here, and has shown he can handle a pressured pace.
  • C Horses:
    • 4 – Ours Again – Will be overbet because he’s a Mike Maker shipper.  But, he did graduate last out in a turf dash at Ellis, and has the right running style.  His best makes him not out of the question.
    • 6 – Lord Turnem – Chestnut has shown an aptitude for dashing on turf in his last two starts, and had some trouble last out.  He will need to bring his absolute best to win in this spot, a tougher field than he faced last out.  If there were a bet for best blaze in the race, though, 1/9 would be an overlay.
    • 11 – Another Richie – Lightly raced enough to have a shot to improve, and his late-running style suits the race.  Demand a price, though, as he steps up from maiden $7,500 company to this $10,000 N2L spot for a ban that isn’t the hottest first off the claim.
  • X Horses:
    • 2 – Return of the Rock – Returns for the first time since last November for a barn that doesn’t tend to fire first off long layoffs, and the worktab is spotty at best.
    • 3 – Holy Brass – Shown little form recently, and not fast enough to contest with the speed horses here.
    • 5 – A J’s Posse – Has found a home dashing on turf and showed guts last out, but hard to think he’ll take another sizable step forward on only a week’s rest.
    • 7 – Purr’s Along – Wired a weak $10,000 maiden claiming field last out on the switch to Pedro Cotto.  Cotto returns to ride, but the front end won’t be quite so easy here.
    • 10 – Chas Tom – Late-running style fits, but the recent race record screams career N2L and his speeds skew a bit too slow to make him competitive.
    • 13 – Alabama Son – Also eligible.  The win last out at the Pea Patch is a positive, but he needs to take a big step up on speed and will not have it easy on the front end.
    • 14 – As You Do – Also eligible.  Closing style fits and he gets a class drop, but he is on the slow side for this bunch, and Belterra form does not tend to hold in Chicago.

Race 11: $5,000 claiming, three-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, three years old OR N3L, races where entered for $4,000 or less not considered in eligibility, one and one sixteenth miles on the turf, post time 5:44pm CDT

  • A Horses:
    • 6 – Hide and Street – Riding a three-win streak, with all of those wins coming over this turf course.  Demolished similar company two starts back, and can either take the lead or rate and rally. (Top Selection)
  • B Horses:
    • 3 – Giant Mongolian – Speeds are consistently competitive for this field, and she fits the old adage of a horse being well meant at the next condition up when the claiming price is sliced in half.
    • 8 – Octacato – Steps up from a win against N2L company last out.  Back form from New York suggests that there could be a bit more in Octacato than she showed last out, and rider Mitchell Murrill stays aboard after that last-out score.
  • C Horses:
    • 4 – Atruevision – Inconsistent, but has a bit of back turf form that could make her competitive here.  And, she goes blinkers-on for the first time.
    • 5 – Atlantic Gulch– Some back turf form suggests she could rise to the challenge.  Trainer Judd Becker is strong third off the lay.  Loses Edgar Perez to Hide and Street, but gets rider Julio Felix, who has been live in his recent mounts for Becker.
  • X Horses:
    • 1 – Kara’s Angel – Gets a class drop here.  But, she’s 0-9 this year, and tends to do better when the turf has a bit of cut in it.  No dice — the ground will be firm today.
    • 2 – Je Suis Belle – Will likely be a pace factor, but has not shown much impetus to finish the job.  A minor award would not surprise; a win would.
    • 7 – Reminisce – Despite the nice turf breeding, her actual turf form has left something to be desired.  May be a pace factor, but that’s it.
    • 9 – Dancing High – Fired a competent enough effort on turf against similar last out, but has established herself as an underneath type.  Don’t leave her off lower rungs of your intra-race exotics, but for a Pick 6 (or 5, or 4, or 3…) don’t waste the money.
    • 10 – Call Me Courageous – Inaptly named filly didn’t show much heart when she strolled on the front end two back (27.1, 51.1!  At a mile!) and still gave in so easily to Hide and Street.  She has hit the board in five of nine this year, but not won, and is 1-24 lifetime.  Can get a piece even from off the pace, so use her in intra-race exotics, but a win would be a shocker.
    • 11 – Turned Back Twice – Tried to Shining Copper ’em two back going a mile at this level, but folded.  Having to clear from the outside won’t help, and neither will the extra half-furlong.
    • 12 – Hurraca – Neither her recent form nor her turf form is very good.  It’s hard to imagine she will find the needed reversal of form, particularly from the far outside gate.

Race 12: Maiden special weight, three-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, five and a half furlongs on the turf

  • A Horses:
    • 3 – Sea Diva – Cuts back to a sprint, and had some solid one-turn efforts on poly earlier in the meet.  She handled the turf well enough two back to suggest she will handle the footing.
    • 10 – Blame T J – The presence of Jose Lopez suggests this one is the “A” entry for trainer Chris Block.  Seemed to be figuring it out late on debut, and any second-start progression puts her right in this.
  • B Horses:
    • 1 – Elusive Ryder – Goes third off the lay and first-time blinkers for trainer Doug Matthews, who can win at a price in both of those scenarios.  She handled a large field well two starts back.
    • 5 – Soul Singer – May be overbet because she comes here from California, but this spot is the softest she has ever seen.  Still lightly enough raced to improve on the class drop.
    • 7 – Flash N Go – The other Chris Block entry.  So far her three-race career has been a story of rank efforts and gate antics; she can improve if she gets her mind right.  Her best effort to date came when Carlos Marquez was in the irons, and Marquez returns today.
  • C Horses:
    • 2 – Whisper Inthe Wind – Not much of a layoff barn, and may be better going a route of ground.  But, at a price (30/1 morning line, and she’ll be at least that), you can’t completely discount Edgar Perez riding a lightly-raced maiden.
    • 4 – Staria Peach – Likely part of the early pace, and her best efforts have come in her turf dash tries.  It’s hard to love her on top since she’s a thirteen-start maiden, but the price still may be right to include on more spread tickets since there isn’t a plethora of pace (barring some surprisingly zippy firsters).
    • 6 – Classy Woman – Aptly named filly is a full sister to Grade 1 winner La Tia.  Hard to love on debut, since even La Tia took four starts to win, and all the other winners out of the mare needed far more than that.  But, the worktab features some drills even longer than this race, and she does lure top rider Jose Valdivia.
    • 13 – She’s Ventastic – Also Eligible.  Gets a class drop from a pair of outings at Oaklawn this winter.  With three bullet works over the deep Fairmount track, she should be fit off the lay, and may be ignored between the also-eligible status and the somewhat obscure connections.
  • X Horses:
    • 9 – Majestic Meadow – The spotty worktab imparts no confidence, and neither does trainer Ruben Flores’s record with maidens.  Better to watch this one here.
    • 11 – Summer Sweet – Cuts back to a sprint, but going long is her better game.  And, with nine starts and five underneath finishes, she always seems to find a way not to finish the job.  She’ll be the chalk, but she’ll be the biggest underlay of the day.
    • 12 – Tizdian – Hard to love from the outside post, and neither trainer Barr Inman nor rider Jesse Lantz pop often on the turf.  Even though one half-sibling (Dancing Dove) won first, out, that was on dirt, and it makes sense to see one.
    • 14 – Glowing Gracie – Also eligible.  Would love to see this one on polytrack and not turf, as she is another one of those Brave ‘n Away babies from the Overalls Brigade.  But, without a particularly turfy pedigree and with no “win first time out” pedigree whatsoever, save this one for later even if she draws in.

Here is the chart summarizing the rankings of each horse in today’s Pick 6 sequence at Arlington.  Good luck!


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