Grab your rotten tomatoes. Boo birds, be ready on standby. It’s time for Hawthorne Showvivor!
Yes, yours truly is ready to try Hawthorne Showvivor one more time.
You can read about the contest in the prior post “On the Eve of Hawthorne Showvivor (Fall)”. Each day we’re alive we’ll break down a race and bold the pick for Hawthorne Showivor. We’ll also recap where we stand.
So with no recap, here’s the Day One Hawthorne Fall Showvivor Play. And you know, you can gamble on these and make some money.
Hawthorne Race Course — Race 3 — Illinois-bred N2X Allowance — One mile on turf — post time 3:10 pm CT
We look at routing females on the turf for the first day of Showvivor. COURSER has a lot in her favor: a three year old getting a weight allowance, missing by a neck last time, trained by Wayne Catalano. She’s never been two turns before, but Catalano is 24% winners with a two sprints-to-route pattern. Speed figures trending upward. Not thrilled with Geroux in the saddle, but he got warm at the end of Arlington. MULATA got on a roll across town at Arlington, with seven starts and seven money finishes in starter allowances on the grass going two turns. Two times, she stepped up to today’s two-other-than condition. The first time, she was a credible third behind lone speed (and IL-bred stakes-placed) Goldway, the second time last out she was third again, but in a weaker field. I think this Hawthorne N2X is going to be no stronger, or perhaps weaker, than that Arlington N2X. Plus, she gets back aboard the rider that piloted her across town so successfully. HOIST THE COLORS looks to be the speed of the speed, and (shock!) E. T. Baird is in the irons. She just missed three back to Leading Astray, well before she became a nice Block-trained sophomore filly that won the G3 Pucker Up a month ago in Arlington Heights. Makes a lateral shift from open N1X to today’s state-bred N2X.
#6 COURSER (7/2) <– Showvivor Pick
#4 MULATA (5/1)
#8 HOIST THE COLORS (4/1)
Longshot: One of my favorite angles is to look at an uncoupled trainer entry with different pace styles. HOIST THE COLORS is a need-the-lead type. #3 PRIMA DONNA PIRATE (15/1) is an off-the-pace type. Could the former set up the latter? Maybe. But also likeable off the fact she’s been up against the likes of Goldway and Leading Astray–turf ladies that would decimate this bunch–and they aren’t here. Although she’s coming off the layoff, like that she shows a work over the super-duper slow Hawthorne dirt and perhaps she’ll be ready to roll.