I’ve been so preoccupied with the holiday season that I all but forgot about the very important season we’re already in the midst of — awards season. Look, I’ll go through the motions of making my predictions because I have far too many opinions to pass up the opportunity to share them. But lets be real, the Golden Globes are a joke. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is like 50 highly impressionable people easily swayed by A-list stars and studio funded cruises.
But hey, as long as celebrities gather in a large auditorium to congratulate themselves I will be there to lend my own opinions on the offerings. As a special treat, the other half of A Couple of Critics, Kyle Owen, will also be offering his opinions on the nominees. Twice the opinions in one little post! Yes, this if your lucky day.
Note: As always, when I say “Will Win” I am basing it off the current odds and general buzz and when I say “Should Win” I’m basing it off my own personal and deeply biased opinions.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
12 Years A Slave
What Should Win: Gravity
What Will Win: 12 Years A Slave
Yes, 12 Years A Slave is a very good movie about a very difficult topic – a topic that can also feel like pandering to awards show judges. I’m not at all trying to discredit the film; it was very well executed and appropriately moving. Gravity on the other hand felt like an entirely new kind of movie. It was genre bending and a masterpiece of new technology. But the only chance it, or any other movie in this category, has is that the foreign judges, from countries un-steeped in the historical context, might not understand how IMPORTANT it was meant to be.
Kyle here. It’s been awhile, but this is a new year and I’m ready to start bothering you all with my opinions once again. Devin is exactly right on this one. 12 Years a Slave is an important film and certainly deserves praise, but not in this category. Gravity wins here.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks
Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett
The category is nothing but powerhouses, but Cate’s victory is still all but assured. Anyone who questions this fact clearly has not seen Blue Jasmine. And really, you should.
Blanchett was superb in Woody Allen’s latest, but I think people will have forgotten by now. I’m rooting for Sandra Bullock here, who gave one of the most gripping, standout performances in the last several years, let alone just 2013.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Who Should Win: Matthew McConaughey
Who Will Win: Hell, if I know.
There’s really no front-runner in this race and all the men delivered worthy performances. But how much fun will it be to say Golden Globe winner Matthew McConaughey?
There is definitely a chance this one will go to Matt McConaughey who has been breaking his mold over the last couple years and really showing off what he is capable of – which is damn near everything. However, I think it’ll go to Chiwetel Ejifor for 12 Years a Slave. He certainly deserves it.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
Who Should Win: American Hustle
Who Will Win: American Hustle
I should probably come up with better reasoning for these predictions other than “see the movie.” But that would require too much work. I will offer this observation, with the exception of The Wolf of Wall Street (which was embarrassingly mediocre), American Hustle is the most “Hollywood” of the nominees. Meaning it has the all-star cast and the award winning production pedigree to impress the HFPA.
Who the hell knows. With the Hollywood Foreign Press making the calls, The Wolf of Wall Street, American Hustle, and Inside Llewyn Davis are surely the only ones really competing here with no offense given to the other films in the category. I think it’ll be American Hustle whose writer/director and cast are on fire as of late, but it would be no shocker if Wolf takes the cake.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig, Francis Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Who Should Win: Greta Gerwig
Who Will Win: Meryl Streep
Do I actually think Greta Gerwig has a chance? No. But I love Greta Gerwig and I love Frances Ha and I love that she’s even nominated so I’m gonna run with it. Amy Adams is the current favorite and would be my actual choice for a “Should Win,” but it seems like Amy Adams is forever destined to be greatly underrated. Meryl, on the hand, suffers no such fate.
As Devin pointed out, Amy Adams is completely underrated and certainly stands a chance. That said, I think the real competition is between Streep and Delphy. With the conclusion to the nearly 20 year running of the Before films, the HFPA might favor Julie Delphy. But who are we kidding, Meryl Streep won’t go home with just a buzz.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf Of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Who Should Win: Christian Bale
Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
As much as I disliked The Wolf of Wall Street, I won’t argue that Leo didn’t give an amazing, award worthy performance. I will, however, argue that Christian Bale also gave an amazing performance in an equally amazing movie. Also, I’m pulling for an American Hustle sweep.
I don’t even know. Dern? DiCaprio? My money is on a last name beginning with “D“.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Despicable Me 2
Who Should Win: Frozen
Who Will Win: Frozen
Because old school, animated musicals rock. It is known.
I should see more animated work. I’ll go with what she said.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Blue is the Warmest Color (France)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Past (Iran)
The Wind Rises (Japan)
Who Should Win: The Great Beauty
Who Will Win: Blue is the Warmest Color
Fun fact: when picking a foreign film I usually go by the country I’d most like to visit. I hardly ever base my decision on which director has been accused of the most harassment.
Oh Devin, you’re a piece a work. But yes, Blue is the Warmest Color will win.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
With this category the torch will officially be passed. Move over Julia, Jennifer is America’s new sweetheart and she’s earning her accolades a hell of a lot sooner than you did. I suggest an evening with All About Eve and your best bitchy friends to soften the blow.
Undoubtedly Jennifer Lawrence.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Who Will Win: Jared Leto
Who could have predicted that one day the Golden Globes would have to choose between the dude from The Hangover and Jordan Catalano? I don’t have strong feelings on this one, but I’ve committed to pulling for an American Hustle sweep so I’ll stick to it. But the standard will undoubtedly stay the same: go gay, get gold.
I could be wrong about Chiwetel Ejiofor for Best Actor, but not Michael Fassbender. He will take take it home Sunday night. Hands down.
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Remember like a paragraph ago when I was all “I’m sticking to this American Hustle fantasy?” Good times. Look, this comes down to who really did the most as a director and its hard to argue that Alfonso Cuaron did a hell of a lot more than sit in a directors chair and yell action.
All of these directors outdid themselves this year, but Alfonso Cuaron outdid the rest.
BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Jeff Pope & Steve Coogan, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years A Slave
Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russell, American Hustle
Who Should Win: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Who Will Win: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
And we’re back on the American Hustle bandwagon. I’m a fickle little critic like that.
I’m stumped here, but I’d really like to see Spike Jonze take the prize here. Snubbed a director nom, Her was his first solo script. He proves here he can bring even more to the table as one of today’s best filmmakers.
Check back tomorrow when we tackle the TV categories and try to stop laughing long enough to actually make some predictions.
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