Draft Day Rumors and Mock Draft Updates

It’s draft day, and in the build-up to the big event there is lots of information and rumors flying around, plus a whole host of mock draft updates. You can find most of this information through our Twitter feed @FutureSox, but if Twitter’s not your thing, you can follow this post, which I will continue to update throughout the day with any new information that appears. You can also visit our forums for lots of draft related discussion.

Baseball America latest mock (5.0):

1. Brady Aiken
Alaysis: BA say the Astros will try to work out a deal with other prospects looking to save some money, but will ultimately end up back at Aiken. Also mention that one scouting source indicates that both Aiken and Alex Jackson will slide due to signability concerns.

2. Carlos Rodon
Analysis: Say scouting department favour Alex Jackson, but will end up cutting a deal with Rodon

3. Tyler Kolek
Analysis: Say Sox are deciding between Kolek and Nola, with Nola being more in line with past picks.

Keith Law’s (ESPN) latest and last mock draft:

1. Brady Aiken
“Analysis: I’m still hearing they’re down to Aiken, Carlos Rodon, or Alex Jackson, perhaps even just Aiken or Jackson, but the late rumors that they’re still on Tyler Kolek aren’t true.
They’re not likely to get a huge discount on any of those guys, nothing like the Carlos Correa situation a few years ago — a deal that looks like an unbelievable bargain in hindsight — but might opt for the player who allows them to save an extra half-million or million if they think it strengthens their position in later rounds.”

2. Carlos Rodon
“Analysis: The Marlins are apparently praying for Rodon to get to them, and would take him over Alex Jackson or Brady Aiken.”

3. Aaron Nola
“Analysis: I’ve heard they’d now take Nola over Tyler Kolek, although Kolek would still be in play here. I have conflicting notes on whether they’d take Carlos Rodon if he gets here.”

Baseball America’s final mock draft (5.1):

1. ASTROS
Mock Draft 1.0: LHP Carlos Rodon
Mock Draft 2.0: LHP Carlos Rodon
Mock Draft 3.0: LHP Brady Aiken
Mock Draft 4.0: LHP Brady Aiken
Mock Draft 5.0: LHP Brady Aiken
Final Call: LHP Brady Aiken

2. MARLINS
Mock Draft 1.0: RHP Tyler Kolek
Mock Draft 2.0: C/OF Alex Jackson
Mock Draft 3.0: C/OF Alex Jackson
Mock Draft 4.0: C/OF Alex Jackson
Mock Draft 5.0: LHP Carlos Rodon
Final Call: LHP Carlos Rodon

3. WHITE SOX
Mock Draft 1.0: LHP Brady Aiken
Mock Draft 2.0: LHP Brady Aiken
Mock Draft 3.0: LHP Carlos Rodon
Mock Draft 4.0: RHP Tyler Kolek
Mock Draft 5.0: RHP Tyler Kolek
Final Call: RHP Tyler Kolek

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo’s (MLB.com) latest mock draft:

1. Astros: Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego)
Despite rumors that Houston is considering as many as six players, the decision likely will come down to Aiken and North Carolina State left-hander Carlos Rodon, the top two prospects in the Draft, and Rancho Bernardo High (San Diego) catcher/outfielder Alex Jackson, the best available hitter. The Astros are unlikely to pay the full $7,922,100 assigned pick value to any of them, so the players’ willingness to cut a deal will play a role in the choice.
Mayo’s pick: Aiken
The Astros always keep people guessing. Aiken, along with Carlos Rodon, Tyler Kolek and Alex Jackson are the candidates.

2. Marlins: Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State
For now, this appears to be the clearest one in the first four. Miami is focusing on the same players as Houston has been, and on Wednesday, many of the clubs at the top were convinced that the Marlins would get Rodon, who’s believed to be ownership’s preference. It’s uncertain whether Miami would take Aiken if he’s available.
Mayo’s pick: Rodon
Signs are pointing to the Marlins going for the best available pitcher, giving them a choice between a college left-hander (Rodon) and a high school right-hander (Kolek).

3. White Sox: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd (Texas) HS
Assuming Aiken and Rodon are gone, the White Sox will pick between Kolek, the hardest-throwing high schooler ever, and Louisiana State right-hander Aaron Nola, the most polished pitcher in the Draft. The decision could go either way.
Mayo’s pick: Kolek
It’s apparent the White Sox will take the best arm. In this scenario, it’s Kolek. They could play it safer and go with LSU’s Aaron Nola.

Jim Callis’ final mock at MLB.com:

1. Astros: Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego)
2. Marlins: Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State
3. White Sox: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Shepherd (Texas) HS

Chris Crawford (MLB Draft Insider) last mock update:

1. Brady Aiken
Same as it ever was. There are still rumors that they cut a deal with a player like Alex Jackson or Nick Gordon, but I’m sticking with Aiken.

2. Carlos Rodon
Much less confident in this pick, as Jackson is still very much in play, but I still have a hard time believing that Rodon is going to fall out of the top two.

3. Aaron Nola
And we have a change. There’s still absolutely a chance that they go with Kolek, but it sounds like he’s slipping a bit for various reasons and Nola’s stock continues to rise.

John Sickels’ does an ‘alternative’ mock and looks at the effects of the Astros making another surprise pick at #1, similar to their pick of Carlos Correia two years ago:

1) Astros: Nick Gordon, SS:
In this thought experiment, the Astros come to a pre-draft below slot deal with Nick Gordon, then apply the money saved to high upside picks in later rounds.

2) Marlins: Carlos Rodon, LHP:
Rodon still goes to the Marlins in this scenario.

3) White Sox: Aaron Nola, RHP:
Lots of rumors that Kolek is dropping and Nola is rising. The Sox cut a deal with the safer bet.

Matt Garrioch of MinorLeagueBall and MLB Prospect Guide Mock:

1) Astros Brady Aiken, LHP
2) Marlins Carlos Rodon, LHP
3) White Sox Aaron Nola, RHP

Kiley McDaniel of Scout.com final mock:

Pick 1 Houston Astros LHP Brady Aiken Cathedral Catholic HS (CA)
ANALYSIS: The Astros are still trying to get away from taking a HS arm, but the best prospect is the best prospect. Rodon’s $6M+ demand likely eliminates him, with Alex Jackson the backup and Nick Gordon and Aaron Nola the extreme dark horses

Pick 2 Miami Marlins LHP Carlos Rodon North Carolina State
ANALYSIS: The Kolek rumors are dying down and it sounds like meddling owner Jeff Loria’s pick (Carlos Rodon, the Cuban-American lefty born in Miami) vs. the scouting staff’s choice (Alex Jackson). The scouting staff wants Jackson but they know who signs their checks. Boras appears to know he’s got the owner’s guy and priced Rodon accordingly to get most of slot here, more than he’d likely get at the #1 pick.

Pick 3 Chicago White Sox RHP Tyler Kolek Shepherd HS (TX)
ANALYSIS: A couple scenarios could play out here. If Jackson goes 2, Rodon goes here. There’s also still a chance Nola is the pick over Kolek, but sticking with Kolek sounds like the most likely scenario

Perfect Game final mock draft:

1. HOUSTON ASTROS
BRADY AIKEN – LHP – Cathedral Catholic (Calif.) HS
This year marks the third year in a row the Astros have held the No. 1 overall pick, and while their target groups have been known each of the last two years, no one knew for sure who they were taking until the actual call was made at the podium. The same is true this year, as while Brady Aiken seems to be the obvious choice, we won’t know for sure until his name is actually called.

2. Miami marlins
CARLOS RODON – LHP – N.C. State
Apparently there is a split between the Marlins’ ownership and baseball operations, with one side wanting Carlos Rodon given his Cuban-American heritage and the other wanting Alex Jackson. We know who usually wins these disagreements.

3. chicago white sox
TYLER KOLEK – RHP – Shepherd (Texas) HS
The White Sox have been connected to Kolek for several weeks now, and nothing has changed leading up to draft day.

Tweets:


Other Notes:

White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper says that he likes all four of the arms rated most highly by the team, including the three mentioned above along with Aaron Nola, but prefers Aiken, reports Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. “I liked them all,” said Cooper. “I liked the kid Aiken maybe the best. But a high school kid, that’s going to be a little longer. The closest to the big leagues Rodon and the second closest was Nola. It’s hard not to like the stuff coming out of the hand of Kolek. Those high school kids, there’s work to be done there.” –MLBTR

KLaw chat:

Jack (Chicago)
Hi Keith, just read your mock and was disappointing in the White Sox. Is this back to the lower ceiling Kenny Williams days for the draft on Nola or am I missing something. I thought I remember you saying he might move to closer as well. Thanks
Klaw (1:45 PM)
Don’t recall ever saying he’d move to closer. I don’t understand why you’d be disappointed in them taking a close to major-league ready starter.

Nick (Chicago)
If the Astros don’t take Aiken at 1-1, would the Marlins pop him at 1-2?
Klaw (1:07 PM)
Depends on who Houston takes. Aiken doesn’t get past the Cubs.

Sean (SF) [via mobile]
Crazy how many people are caught up in Koleks velocity more than his tools
Klaw (1:58 PM)
Bingo. If I wanted to crush him, I’d argue that he has below-average command, his slider isn’t effective vs LHB because he can’t locate it, he doesn’t throw his changeup, and he’ll have to work to maintain his physical conditioning. If I didn’t tell you that he throws 100 mph, wouldn’t you ask why the heck that guy was in consideration in the top few picks?

Justin (Chicago)
If a team can teach Luke Weaver a breaking ball how does that change his projected ceiling?
Klaw (2:09 PM)
That’s not a minor “if,” but I’ve half-joked that the White Sox should take him in the second round, and in three months he’ll be throwing a plus slider.

John Manuel draft chat at Baseball America:

Rick (Philadelphia): Any chance of Kolek making it to #7 for the Phils?
John Manuel: Sorry for the delay, had a phone call to take. Anything could happen with Kolek; heck, it wouldn’t totally shock me if he went 1-1. He’s such an outlier I would believe anything. Our best info at this point is the White Sox prefer him at 3. But the Aaron Nola rumors will not go away, and that could send Kolek down to 7.

Chris Crawford draft chat at MLB Draft Insider:

4:23 Comment From Brian
IFRodon falls to theWhote Sox at 3, do they take him? Or isBoras still an issue with them?
4:23 Chris Crawford: Not sure if it’s entirelyBoras, but they don’t appearto be in on him at this point.

FutureSox Draft Previews:
Brady Aiken
Carlos Rodon
Tyler Kolek
Aaron Nola
Alex Jackson
Jeff Hoffman
Nick Gordon
Max Pentecost
Kyle Freeland

Comments

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    Are you guys going to include the DSL and the VSL in your minor league recaps? I am really interested in how Micker Adolfo does. I really enjoy this site. It's the best Sox minor league content on the net.

  • In reply to Jim Pedigo:

    Hey Jim thanks for the kind words. The problem with the DSL is that the updates are usually not available until after our recaps are posted, so it can be a bit of a problem, but we may look to add them in the future. As for Adolfo, currently he is not with the DSL team and the thought is that he will join the AZL team when that league kicks off on 6/20, possibly along with some of the other higher profile IFA guys like.Luis Castillo and Victor Done.

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