Addison Reed Promoted to AA

In a move that I mentioned as a possibility in yesterday’s Hot and Cold, reliever Addison Reed has been promoted to AA Birmingham today. It’s Reed’s second promotion of the season. The right-hander dominated both A ball stops this year in what is his first full season of pro ball. Right-handed starter Terry Doyle also rejoins the Barons.

Reed, 22, has a 1.49 ERA with 50 strikeouts and five walks in 36.1 on the season, surpassing even the most optimistic projections for the 2010 3rd round pick. Reed features a plus slider and a low 90s fastball, making him a typical two-pitch reliever.

To show how impressive Reed has been let’s compare him to other right-handed relievers taken high in the draft that moved through the minors quickly. For this comparison I used right-handed relievers taken in the first three rounds from 2006 to now that have already pitched in the Major Leagues. I also eliminated pitchers that were starters in the minors like Andrew Cashner, Justin Masterson, Jess Todd and Aaron Crow to level the playing field. Only A ball stats are included (meaning current Indians’ reliever Joe Smith and Detroit’s Ryan Perry didn’t make the list due to few or no innings in A ball)

Drafted Year(s) ERA K/9 BB/9 H/9
Addison Reed ’10 3rd CHW 2011 1.49 12.39 1.24 6.19
Drew Storen ’09 1st WAS 2009 2.92 13.5 0.73 6.57
Craig Kimbrel ’08 3rd ATL 08-09 2.73 16.09 5.6 5.46
Sam Demel ’07 3rd OAK 07-08 3.69 11.26 5.08 7.97
Daniel Bard ’06 1st BOS 2008 0.64 13.82 1.29 3.86
Chris Perez ’06 Supp STL 2006 1.84 9.82 5.83 6.14

(K/9 bolded to separate the columns better, not for emphasis. Movable Type doesn’t play well with tables.)

Everyone of the comps is a successful Major League reliever, but while Reed’s numbers hold their own in that group, I’m not so sure his stuff does. From these numbers, Storen and Bard are most similar, but Bard uses a high 90s fastball so you can’t compare him to Reed. Storen is the best comp, but again, he has a bit more velocity than Reed.

EDIT: JPN tweeted about Reed’s Birmingham debut and apparently his fastball is faster than the preseason scouting reports said. That changes most of my point. Maybe he is comparable to Storen or Bard.

This is a very optimistic group of comparisons and I’m not sure Reed will stack up to their success down the road, but statistically you have to like what the former San Diego State closer is doing. We’ll see how the numbers hold up against much more experienced hitters in AA.

As for Doyle, he made a spot start for the Barons in May, but this could be a more permanent move. Doyle’s departure leaves the Dash with an open roster spot and looking for another starter. Dylan Axelrod also seems to have moved to Charlotte, but he just came off the DL yesterday and that would put the Knights over the roster limit so we’ll see how that shakes out.

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