If the MLS playoffs were to begin today the Fire would left on the outside looking in. Fortunately, the Fire have more than a third of their schedule remaining and some time to make up ground.
Dropped points on late goals in two consecutive road matches don’t make the current table any easier to look at but the reality is that the Fire currently sit in 11th place overall. After defeating the Galaxy in Los Angeles on Saturday night, the Kansas City Wizards moved ahead of the Fire although they have played two more matches. The current table looks like this:
PTS GP
- LA 43 22
- CLB 41 22
- RSL 40 22
- NY 37 22
- FCD 37 21
- SEA 32 22
- COL 31 21
- SJ 29 20
- TFC 27 21
- KC 26 21
- CHI 24 19
- HOU 23 22
- NE 21 21
- PHL 20 21
- CHV 19 20
- DC 15 21
For the purpose of trying to nail down which teams will make the final cut of eight I’ll assume that LA, CLB, RSL, NY, and FCD are going to be in barring some major monumental collapses. I’ll also assume that DC, CHV, PHL, NE, and HOU are out by taking into account the almost unrealistic amount of ground they will need to make up just to qualify for the eighth spot with less than 10 matches to play for each team.
That leaves SEA, COL, SJ, TFC, KC, and CHI. Six teams fighting for three available playoff spots.
Seattle
They have 8 matches remaining but they will also be juggling CONCACAF Champion’s League and the US Open Cup as the season winds down. Remaining MLS matches: @NE, RSL, @CLB, @ CHI, TFC, @KC, CHV, @HOU. Five of their eight remaining matches are against playoff contenders and only three of those remaining games are at home.
Colorado
They have 9 MLS matches remaining: CHV, @NY, NE, @RSL, PHL, DC, @FCD, @LA, RSL. Five of their remaining nine matches are against playoff contenders including two against defending champion Real Salt Lake.
San Jose
The Earthquakes have only played one more game than the Fire and sit five points ahead in the standings. The September 29 match up in California will be huge for both sides. Remaining MLS matches: @HOU, FCD, PHL, @TFC, CHI, @CLB, @DC, HOU, CHV, @KC. Five of their remaining ten matches are against playoff contenders. They have a favorable closing month if they can survive September.
Toronto FC
They will be trying to qualify for the postseason for the first time in team history. It won’t be easy with six of their remaining nine matches on the road where they have been historically awful. Remaining MLS matches: @FCD, @CHI, DC, @HOU, SJ, @SEA, @CHV, CLB, @DC.
Kansas City
Five of their remaining nine matches are against playoffs contenders but their next three are against cellar dwellars. Their fortunes may be known in the next few weeks. Remaining MLS matches: @PHL, @CHV, HOU, FCD, @NY, SEA, @CHI, @NE, SJ.
Chicago
With eleven matches remaining they are the only team with more than ten to play. Six of the eleven are at home, which hasn’t been much an advantage over the last few seasons since the Fire has had a propensity for dropping as many points at home as they have on the road over the last few years. Only three of the eleven matches are against lower rung sides. Remaining MLS matches: LA, TFC, @PHL, @RSL, SEA, @SJ, @FCD, CLB, KC, DC, @CHV.
Who makes it? I’ll say Seattle, San Jose, and Chicago qualify for the remaining three spots while Colorado, Toronto, and Kansas City stay home.
Here’s an interesting site which uses statistical data to establish a percentage for qualifying. The Rapids are currently at 82.6% to qualify while the Fire are at 29.2%. The site’s formula apparently can’t account for road matches at New York, Salt Lake, Dallas, and Los Angeles.
One thing is certain. It will take a minimum of 43 points just to qualify for the eigth spot. The Fire can longer afford careless marking in the waning minutes or any minute for that matter.
Filed under: 2010 Regular Season
Tags: Chicago Fire, Playoff Scenarios
ESPNChicago's Charlie Corr comments on the substitutions or lack thereof during the Seattle match.
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/fire/post/_/id/555/fire-need-to-utilize-dept
i can't say i've been impressed by CDLC this year. if we miss the playoffs, do you think he'll return?
I would say yes.
Freddie Ljungberg first pitch at Wrigley Field: http://www.chicago-fire.com/content/freddies-first-pitch
Castillo says he's ready to play
http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/chicagos-castillo-finally-fit-ready-play
So no more excuses. We'll see.
its gonna be great weather for the game,,,should pack the house...go fire
Game will be a sell out.
Here's the official mid week injury report.
CHICAGO FIRE -- OUT: DF Dasan Robinson (R hamstring strain); PROBABLE: MF John Thorrington (R ankle contusion); MF Freddie Ljungberg (L calcaneal contusion)
surprised to see thor on there! ;)
May as well list Freddie as OUT. Will we see any DP's on Saturday? This is my first game in a couple of months and was bummed to see Freddie would have to miss the game.
I have to believe Castillo will see some time although it may not be as a starter.
Landon Donovan will be there for LA.
The LA game coming up is HUGE. If the Fire can stand up to the league leaders, not only will it move them up in their standings but it would provide some huge momentum going into the stretch run.
I just don't know what to think any more. The line up will be different again. I think
McBride
Patrick Thor Pause Nery Baggio
Sagaress Conde Brown Steve
Again off topic but it is very frustrating to watch the Fox Soccer Report and see the news about Bob Bradley buried amid the much less significant news of player movement in Europe.
Yes. I've always thought FSC was a bit too Euro-centric myself.
Seems like the Bradley re-signing is recieving a lot of negative feedback, but I think it's a fine move. He's a pretty good coach, he gets a lot out of his players, and there weren't a whole lot of other options.
Besides Juergen Klinsmann, I guess there weren't other options. It was time to go in a new direction with the team. We barely got out of the easiest group in the WC. We gave up a goal or the other team hit the bar in the first 10 minutes of every game we played in. We dropped the ball not signing Klinsmann 4 years ago, and now we did it again.
Are you sure Klinsmann said he'd coach for the US?
Part of our struggles also had to do with getting completely screwed by the refs, which isn't a coaching issue. He made some questionable calls, but I think he's a solid if not spectacular coach.
Starting Findley and Clark was a coaching issue.
Bringing Findley to South Africa was a coaching issue.
beating spain and reaching the confederations cup finals and playing very competitively against brazil was under his watch. they tied england and won their group and made it to the final 16.
yes he made mistakes like i mentioned above (who doesn't?), but i still think he's a quality coach.
They won the group but with out the last second goal from donovan they don't advance.
The lineup and the changes in the knock out round where terrible as well.
Lastly, I think he is fine, but I think the records of managers staying on for a second WC has shown it isn't a good thing
i wasn't a fan of the lineup either vs. ghana, btw.
Sooo, the president of El Salvador would like to see De Los Cobos back in charge of the national team.
http://futbol.univision.com/centroamerica/el-salvador/article/2010-09-01/gobierno-de-el-salvador-estaria
They also got beat 3-1 to Italy and 3-0 to Brazil. If Italy doesn't crap it's pants and lose 3-0 to Brazil on the last day, they are on a plane home. If Green doesn't throw the ball in the goal, they are on a plane home from the easiest group in the tournament.
If that's your logic, then Denis the Menace should still be our coach for the Fire.
if the refs didn't take multiple goals away from the team...
and i'm sorry, but italy and brazil should be destroying us. they are that much better talent wise. the fact that we almost beat brazil in the confed cup finals and did beat spain in the semis means a lot to me. it shows that he can get the team to a very high level if things come together.
i just think some of us have completely unrealistic visions of where the US is talent wise and what a coach can do with that (lack of) talent.
http://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/blog/dirty-tackle/post/Bob-Bradley-stays-on-to-keep-the-U-S-from-movin?urn=sow-266483
Sure he beat Spain in the Confederations Cup but they were, once again, extremely lucky to get out of the group in that tournament too. They get smoked by Italy and Brazil and then they score 3 goals in one game and Italy lose by three goals. Bradley did what he was supposed to do with this team. He took the team as far as he could. We need to find a coach, Klinsmann, that can take us to the next level.
lucky to make it to the finals. bad coaching to lose to ghana. seems a bit unfair to me.
finally, it's not even that i think that klinsman isn't a better option. i'm just saying that i don't think bradley is a bad coach and while he makes mistakes (like ALL coaches), i think we should respect what he's accomplished. i don't think the US is in bad hands moving forward.
but, i know, it's quite popular to hate coaches and blame them for any failure.