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Goose Picks'em: Super Bowl

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Chasse Rehwinkel

I gamble, therefore I write...or I write, therefore I gamble...honestly, they're pretty similar professions…

Brandon Marchand, or the" Goose" as we affectionately call him, is a football fan "extraordinaire," watching the NFL action every week, managing a middling fantasy football team and participating in his annual family pick'em league.

Although the Goose is probably best described as an average football fan, with his spot on the 2001 McQuaid Jesuit freshmen football scout team counting as the only thing on his resume that could be even remotely called "playing experience," he has managed to be somewhat successful at picking the results from week to week.

So without further adieu, here's my roommate and resident armchair quarterback's Super Bowl week "expert" football pick.


Well, here it is. The last game of the season. The big one. Two number one seeds battling it out in Miami for the Lombardi trophy and the title of Champion...there is just no way I'm going to pick this correctly.

 

 

Indianapolis Colts over New Orleans Saints*

I think the Saints have a better offense, I think they have a better defense, I think they have better special teams, I think they have a better head coach. The Colts, however, have Peyton Manning. I don't think there is a player in the NFL right now who can single-handedly win football games like this guy. I doubt that the Colts would even be in the playoffs without him--especially if the were forced to start Curtis Painter. New Orleans has a good defense that loves to create turnover, but nobody pass blocks like the Indianapolis offensive line. Manning has been downed less than 15 times since Week One. His quick release, combined with talented receivers and keen eye means that he will get the ball off before you can get to him almost every time. You may love the story line of the New Orleans Saints, this being their first Super Bowl in the team's 43 year tortured existence, but don't be surprised if they come up empty-handed.


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Goose's predicament also know as "Archie Manning Syndrome"

 

Suicide Pool Pick 'o the Week: Colts over Saints (duh)

 

Last Week: 0-1

Playoffs: 5-6

 

Random Thoughts for Super Bowl:

  • The most important player in this game might not actually be Peyton Manning. It might not be Drew Brees, Dwight Freeney, Reggie Wayne, Reggie Bush or Kim Kardashian and her top. I think the most important person may end up being Gregg "Triple G" Williams. As the defensive coordinator of the Saints, he has been the man responsible for a Saint's defense that ranked third in interceptions--26 with five returned for touchdowns--and tied for fifth in fumble recoveries--13 with three returned for a touchdown--throughout the regular season. The Colts offensive line is great at picking up the pass rush, and Manning is among the best at picking apart defensive backs, so it's up to Williams to design a defensive strategy to put pressure on Peyton and prevent his powerful passing perfection.

 

  • How bad am I at picking games this postseason? Seriously, how bad? Quite bad? Yeah, I'd agree. After a fairly good regular season, I'm in a position where my best case scenario is that I go .500 for the postseason--if you count the Pro Bowl. It's been a tough postseason to pick for a lot of the analysts that I've seen, but after beating most of them in the regular season, I'm quite far behind in the playoffs. This makes me glad I think the Colts will win--because I will be rooting for the Saints. If current trends continue--the trend being that I can't pick games in the postseason--I will get to watch the Saints win their first ever Super Bowl. If--somehow--my logic and reasoning wins out and the Colts win, then I get to say I correctly picked the game. It's a win-win scenario!

 

  • A lot has been made about the crazy ways to bet the Super Bowl, and although I don't want to saturate the internet with more about that topic, I am going to do so anyway. As I explained the other week, Bodog gifted me $10 "eDollars" recently, money I cannot withdraw, but can play with. Having won one of five bets in the Championship Round, I had just shy of $7 to play with. Since the minimum bet is $1, that left me with 6 bets to make. Here they are:

Disclaimer: I am betting with house money. Plus I am an idiot. These bets are for your enjoyment only. Please don't think that they are necessarily good bets to make.


$1.31 to win $0.94 on OVER 2.5 times that the phrase "Hurricane Katrina" will be mentioned by the announcers. Come on, I know it has to be the whole phrase, not just "Katrina," but if this game gets out of hand in any way they will need something to talk about.

$1.00 to win $1.15 that the Super Bowl MVP will thank his teammates first. The kneejerk reaction is "God" but they always thank God last. If it's a quarterback--as I expect it to be--then they have to thank their teammates first.

$1.00 to win $1.20 on OVER 1 minute and 42 seconds for Carrie Underwood to sing the national anthem. During a regular season game a few years ago she clocked in at 1:41 with very little flourish to the notes. It's the Super Bowl, so expect her to embellish some of those notes and show off her pipes.


$1.25 to win $2.00 that the Gatorade dumped on the winning head coach will be "Clear/Water." You may think that this is along the lines of a coin toss bet, but don't think that the Goose hasn't done his research. For the most part, teams use the same flavor at their home games, so assuming both teams brought their flavors, they should use the same color they have all season. What research I've found points to the Colts using clear and the Saints using yellow. So, if I did this right, then this is essentially a bet on the Colts.

$1.15 to win $1.00 on New Orleans Saints +6 points. I know I picked the Colts, but I am rooting for the Saints, and though you should never bet with your heart over your brain, I can still win on a Saint's loss. Plus, it's house money, so whatever.

$1.12 to win $16.80 that Boise State will be the BCS Champions next year. I know it's a long shot, but the line has been moving in Boise State's favor since I placed the bet. They are losing one starter to the NFL this year and have been running on all cylinders, upsetting TCU in their Bowl Game. Expect them to start the season ranked in the top 5 and an undefeated season can get them into the big game.

Trash Bet with the Rounder that the coin flip will turn up tails. You may think that this is a 50-50 shot, but you'd be wrong. There are two reasons for this. The first is that that the current standings for the Super Bowl coin toss is 22 heads and 21 tails--so tails is due because past performances always guarantee future success. The second reason is the old mantra that "tails never fails." So, if you combine the two of those, the coin toss cannot be anything but tails--and if you believe that, then I got some land in Florida to sell you.

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Good "reasoning" Goose...


The saddest thing about the Super Bowl is the day after when the next meaningful football game isn't until September. Sure there is the draft and various off-season acquisitions to look forward to, but it's just not the same. At least this off-season there are some interesting storylines to follow, such as the attempt to put a team--or two--in LA and the possibility of an uncapped season next year, and lockout in 2011. Ugh, a lockout. That would make me one sad Goose.


NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Picks:

Thanks to his article from yesterday, I know that the Rounder is going for broke in the fantasy league. It's very commendable of him and the right thing to do. So I'm not going to do that in hopes that I can earn enough points to stay ahead of him and collect on our trash bet. Additionally, since first place is out of reach, I'm going to do my best to finish in the top five.

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Goose spelled C-H-I-C-K-E-N


QB: Drew Brees (x3)

RB1: Joseph Addai: Do I think he'll have a good game? Actually, yes. On top of that, since Wild Wild Wuest is so far ahead with the Colts, many other people are picking a combination of Saints running backs. By picking Addai, I can get points that they'll--hopefully--be missing out on.

RB2: Reggie Bush: This Super Bowl isn't great for running backs. I expect Bush to be the top earner at the position, mostly because of his special teams work.

WR1: Pierre Garcon: Smart money is on Reggie Wayne, which is why I picked Garcon. Everyone is going to pick Wayne, so his points aren't going to help me. Garcon has been having an impressive postseason and I hope to cash in on that.

WR2: Marques Colston (x2): I am only picking him because of the bonus. I'd rather pick a second receiver who nobody else is going to pick but I'm not going to sacrifice a bonus to do so.

TE: Dallas Clark (x3): This looks nice but he's had a pretty poor playoff run. Combined with the fact that pretty much everybody has him at x2 or x3 and he's not going to help me much. I just can't sacrifice a x3 bonus.

K: Garrett Hartley (x2): He's been pretty good so far and the Rounder has him at x1, so every point he scores, I get double, making him actually hurt the Rounder. Muahahahaha!

DEF: Saints: Neither defense should put up many points against these high powered offenses but the Saints love to create turnovers so I'm hoping they grab a few in this game.

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1 Comment

Tory said:

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Is there any chance of me staying in the top 5 with you? I'm thinking no... But I'm fairly certain I'm beating Chasse, which is what really matters :)

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