Black Jack

You play GM now, or else no complaining later!

  I have yet to hear much feedback on my proposed White Sox trade deadline moves or hear about any other ideas out there.  Now it's easy to play armchair GM after the fact!  it's easy to complain about the trades that did or didn't happen.  But let's see who can come out with the moves that will most closely resemble what actually happens.  If you can't go out on a line now, you cannot expect to be taken seriously later! I've heard back from a handful of you but am wondering if anyone has missed anything?

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bill said:

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I found this site that lists the contract status of all the White Sox players: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-white-sox.html

1) Pick up options for Dye and Thornton.
2) Trade Jenks, Contreras, Dotel, and Thome before the end of the season.
3) Sign Danks, Richard, Getz, and Beckham to multi-year deals.
4) Sign Podsednik, Carrasco, Nix, Wise, Fields, and Quentin to one-year deals.

Jack McDowell said:

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Getz is the only possibility (unless they have idiot agents) to get signed long term. He is the closest to being an expendable big league players ie a bunch of guys just like him. I still don't know why everyone wants to trade Jenks?

eriqjaffe said:

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I see no point in signing the kids to multi-year deals yet, except Danks. Richard, Getz and Beckham won't hit arbitration for another couple of seasons - ink them to multi-year deals then, not now.

For the same reason, I don't think there's any point in signing Fields and Quentin to 1-year deals, unless it's to avoid arbitration (but I don't think either of them will be eligible until after next year at the earliest).

Contreras might get some return, but he's been inconsistent over the past few years, which may make other GM's gun-shy. Thome is pretty much unmoveable - his only value is as a DH, which limits potential trading partners.

Really, the most movable players on the team are Jenks, Dotel and Thornton. That being said, if we plan on contending this year (which it seems that we do), shipping off solid relief pitchers would be suicide. Maybe if the wheels fall off and the Sox are 10 games out by the end of the month, but not if they're still in the hunt.

Dewayne Wise can go - if the Sox could get a used fungo bat for him, they should go for it. Norris Hopper is sitting down in AAA, and has a far better ML track record than Wise.

At this point, the best thing the Sox could do is maybe try to pick up a 5th starter, maybe they can move Colon or something.

Jack McDowell said:

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Actually the most movable part on the team is Dye. But that remains a big no-no to most Sox fans who hope to contend this year. Again, why would you obliterate the bullpen only to have to rebuild it again? it's easy to go get middle guys, but end of the game guys who are experienced and effective are gold! As far as Contreras being inconsistent, he has been awesome for a number of starts since coming back. All scouts look for is who's hot and who has stuff...both of which are Contreras right now.

Noneck said:

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It depends on if they are buyers or sellers. Currently they should be buyers. As buyers, the 1st move is to open the change purse, The 2nd is to see what prospects or players do not have a future with the club.

If they drop to sellers by end of month, it becomes a garage sale for Dotel and Thome. Getting something is better than nothing. The Dye situation is a little hairy, do they want to lay out the big buck for his option next year or not? That will determine if he is on the blocks or not. Linebrink will be of negative worth with his contract. Jenks will cost arbitration money and Thornton is still cheap and needed. PK ? The only place he would go to is the Angel or maybe Arz but I don't think either will want him, so he stays.

What do you think BJ? If buyer what? If sellers who?

Jack McDowell said:

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The way the roster is set up, this is neither a team exactly for a run this year, or exactly for many runs in the future. I'd go for the second option because the pieces we'd have to give up will not crush the team provided Quentin comes back and can play. I'd entertain offers for Dye and see if there is one that kicks butt. Remember he has what is called a "mutual option" for next year. That means even if the club decides they'd like him back, he can choose to go out and sign with anyone else or push for a multi-year with the Sox. Too many if's for me.

Barry Foote said:

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Black Jack,
If Dye gets traded, his option becomes a player option. I think he'd be happy making $12 million next year. If I could make a trade I would see what Toronto wants for Haladay. Supposedly they would consider trading him. Some of those minor leaguers are going to be busts, so if they want a few of them, so be it. If Reinsdorf is interesting in buying a hockey team that plays in the desert, owning professional teams must be a little more lucrative than he wants us to believe. Add Haladay to the rotation and if Contreras keeps it up, the Sox could easily make it to the playoffs in the weak division and really should be set up to contend in the division I can't see getting much better for a few seasons.

Jack McDowell said:

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Dye should command that money next year either way so I don't think it'll matter much. Good luck with Halladay! I'd trade half of the organization for him! They won't get fooled by a below average deal. That guy is the best pitcher in baseball...period. No questions asked. Owning teams is always a money maker. Ask yourself this...when has there ever been a LACK of interest when a team comes up for sale?

NCSoxfan said:

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Your comment about teams making money is spot-on. Seems of all the organization in MLB that cry poor, the Sox do it loudest and most often. It's ALWAYS been the fans fault for not being able to make this move or another. If current ownership isn't able to get the support they think they need, they should sell to someone who thinks the Sox provides an opportunity, not a burden.

Barry Foote said:

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KW was talking about trades a week or so ago and mentioned making trades that might be a "push" this year but help the Sox in the future. Maybe he's talking about trading Dye and the push being the return of Quentin. I don't see the Sox paying Dye $12 million next year even with all the money coming off the books. JD may be offended he has provided 5 seasons of outstanding service but the Sox don't want to pay him any more and maybe even less than other teams and will probably walk. Trading him now may be getting something, hopefully they will get a better return than they received for Ray Durham and for when they dealt Black Jack. Lyle Mouton? No wonder Schueler can't get another GM job.

eriqjaffe said:

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Just as a note, Dye will have 10/5 status next year. Just sayin'.

Noneck said:

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Interesting note on Dye getting the 10/5 next year but I really don't think it will come into play because if the Sox keep him it will be just his option for 2010.

Jack McDowell said:

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Like I said, Dye's option is a "mutual option" I believe which means it's actually nothing. Either side can decide to say no, and should a team say yes, then why would the player agree without at least trying to sweeten the deal? He's getting moved!

bighurt27 said:

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Just get Geoff Blum :)

bighurt27 said:

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For real though maybe I take a shot at picking up a Bedard, Webb, or Haren. But I don't part with Dye or Jenks if we're still in it. If a Milwaukee or SF are interested in Contreras, I'd take a serious look at their prospect pools and who they're willing to give up as it would be nice to get that contract off our books.

Jack McDowell said:

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#1 who on our staff is Bedard better than? Don't believe the past free agent hype! Webb isn't supposed to come back until Sept. and will probably only buy him a couple of months before the surgery will have to be done. And from what I hear Haren isn't available. We can definitely move Contreras if the deal is good but I'd try to move Dotel first because I think they'd get similar packages in return.

Noneck said:

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Yes that mutual option scares me now. I am now in your corner about Dye even if they decide to be buyers. If Quentin comes back ok and Pods at the corners, Dye can be expendable for a kick butt deal now. At the same time you could be giving up prospects to fill holes to contend. (Another SP) Kinda like hedging a bet.

Jack McDowell said:

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That's been my question all along, what exactly do we need? The biggest question mark has been consistent TEAM hitting. How do we address that?

Noneck said:

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You address this team hitting with finger crossing and church candle lighting's. If Beckham is what he is suppose to be, Quentin comes back as the 08 Quentin, Nix does what he has been doing the last couple games,PK does what hes been doing all year, Thome does what he always does, Ramirez keeps progressing with good plate appearances, field getting his HR stroke up and KO stroke down, Anderson and Wise average .250 and Pod keeps visiting the fountain of youth daily. Dye can be expendable for a SP. No acquisitions can produce consistent team hitting. I think a dependable veteran starting pitcher would be of most value.

TheWall said:

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If we are playing to win this year, id have to say maybe the best move is the one you dont make. Getting Quentin back after the Allstar break would be just like getting a top slugger in a trade. Id much prefer an outfield of Quentin, Podsednik, and Dye, than any that would have Wise or Anderson playing all the time. Wise becomes expendable to me (even with the left handed bat), because he is nowhere near as good defensively as Anderson. I would leave the bullpen alone. Guys like Thornton, Dotel, and Jenks just dont come around all that often. Unless they think Nunez or Link can come up and fill one of those spots right now, id say leave the bullpen the way it is. The Starting pitching is coming around to being a strength. They have the 2nd lowest ERA in the AL. Floyd, Danks, are pitching like it was last year, and Contreras is showing a late surge like he did in the second half of 05 when he was near unbeatable. Buerhle is Buerhle, and while Richard can be shaky at times, he has shown enough to be a capable 5. Colon is done with the Sox, and could possibly see them taking a flyer on byrd to see if he could help out at all. If they want an internal option, Egbert has regained his form since being switched back to a starter.

Echo said:

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I too think KW should trade Jenks now while he still has some value. His velocity has dropped every year since '05 and teams are getting on base against him. He no longer challenges hitters, falls behind in the count, and puts players in scoring position too often. I would argue that he is one of the luckiest closers in baseball. Go with a closer by committee with the bulk of innings going to Thornton. We have young guys who should get a chance to toss some relief innings.

I'm still confused as to why Black Jack agrees closers are overrated but then feels differently about Jenks. Linebrink, when he is on, is capable of closing as is Thornton. Am I the only guy who feels like it's adventure time every time Jenks takes the mound??

I don't see the benefits of being a buyer in this market. Who cares if you win the Central only to be eliminated by any of the other three teams in the playoffs? Shouldn't we be trying to arm ourselves for the future? I don't know where this team is, but it isn't close to the top teams in the AL...

Jack McDowell said:

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You're correct that this team is nowhere near the best teams in the American League, but you will argue against the "just get there" mentality and anything can happen! As a general manager you have to play a little of both. Also, I think any major league pitcher who has balls is able to close games. It is a percentage game that is completely stacked toward the pitcher no matter who is in that spot. But, that being said, today's managers, Ozzie included use closers like parrots or clones. They need that guy to be the scapegoat in the ninth inning so every time there's a "save situation" they need a closer. That means the Sox need a closer, and although I feel that almost anyone out there could have the same save percentage as Jenks by the end of the year, that's not the way the game is run. And as far as "lucky closers" how about K-Rod and his 25 hits and 22 BB's in 49 innings.

Jack McDowell said:

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KW should trade Dotel, Getz & Carrasco to the Rockies for Eric Young jr. and two of their pitching prospects

Noneck said:

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BJ you are talking like a flim fam man or a bank robber now.

Jack McDowell said:

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Young is good, but you think he's THAT good?

Noneck said:

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Jack,
You mentioned Eric Young jr. AND two of their pitching prospects, that's quite a haul for a relief pitcher that's a FA after the season, a mop up pitcher that is having a career year and a young decent not great 2nd baseman. You may know more about the upside for Getz & Carrasco and would love for you tell me what you see in them. Finally, Do you think the Rockies will be competing for the division? If not why would they want Dotel?

Jack McDowell said:

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Yeah, that is probably the dream deal! But..the Rockies are one game out of the wild card as we chat here, so they are definitely in the running. They are in the market for middle / set-up relief to get them solidified in the hunt. Maybe we couldn't get two of their top prospects but think of it this way, we would be giving them 3 Major League players for three minor league players. What I see in our guys is TRADE BAIT!!!

Noneck said:

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Now 7 in a row, getting great starting pitching, why no confidence? You think the Tigers or Twins are going to run away and hide or is this Sox streak just a flash in the pan? Or do you see or know something us mere mortals don't? Thanks for your insight.

Jack McDowell said:

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I think the Sox have as good a shot as any of them...we're just having fun playing GM! In that position you have to think of the future as well as just the next two months. can we still win if we sell dye for a great package? Possibly, if Quentin can come back and replace the production. Otherwise, when Quentin comes back do we move Scotty to center? I think they can make moves and still win while bolstering the overall system and evn the Big League team.

Noneck said:

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Ok you have convinced me. If the Sox can't extend Dyes contract before the deadline and a killer deal for the future is offered , he should be dealt. I am afraid the Sox cost containment philosophy will carry over to next year even though they will lose Thome, Contreras, and Dotels contracts. Of course this is all predicated on Quentin being able to come back. If Dye is moved, I would want the Sox to then get that veteran starting pitcher for the stretch run. I understand where you are coming from and are in your corner.

Sleepywilly said:

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So are we predicting or proposing? Doesn't matter, my answer is the same. Do NOTHING. This team was built to contend, lets see Ozzie work his magic. Jenks "velocity has dropped every year since '05"???? Really? Do you still watch games? He's been hitting 97 ALL YEAR!! I realize he hit 99-100 in 05, and it was down to 92-93 last year, but its back. Who cares if he doesn't still throw 100, personally i'm glad he doesn't, i see that chucking 100 mph fastballs out of the zone has done wonders for Zumaya. Black Jack (and i know you didn't make the Jenks velocity drop comment)you of all people on this planet should understand you don't have to have your "good stuff" to win. You routinely got outs and wins by throwing junk on those "off days". Bobby, like Black Jack did, has the fighter's mentality which makes Jenks a good closer. Somedays, they'll blow hitters away with thier stuff, others they'll have to battle, and win.

Echo said:

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Sleepywilly, are we talking about actual velocity or the marketing velocity as promoted by Comcast and Fox Sports? Are we talking about the radar gun tuned to regularly register mid 80s velocity fastballers in the low to mid 90s?

Jenks decided to become a pitcher and since then he's been very lucky. Last year he boasted a K rate of 5.5 per 9 innings - he was 11.44 per 9 innings in 2005. Now, tell me if you think that's a guy throwing high, hard heat and challenging hitters or someone pitching himself out of jams. He gives up at least one hit or walk per inning pitched. He is currently at 9 K's per inning meaning his value is up. He will not continue to pitch this way.

I agree with you that he's got the right mentality, but he's a closer on the decline from where I sit. He has value following a good start and we could probably get something of value for him right now. We may not be able to next season...

Jack McDowell said:

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I actually have made NO comment on Jenks velocity because I couldn't care less! I look at numbers and bottom line...so I agree

Brian said:

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If Kenny is looking to stay in the race, we can still let go of Contreras and Dotel. However, I would like to see Kenny look for a veteran second baseman, someone like Ray Durham, if he was still playing. No offense to Getz, but he has done nothing to say he is our second baseman of the future. A veteran could help Lexi out with his defense. Right now, Lexi is doing his best J. Uribe impression and if the Sox are going to contend, they will need to step up their defense in the infield.

As far as inking guys for the future, start with Thornton. Is their a better reliever on this team than him? Beckham looks like he will be here a while, but I don't know if he will listen to a long term deal at this point. He hasn't lit things up like R. Braun or E. Longoria, either. Braun waited until his second year to sign a long term deal, while Longoria got one during his first year. Let's not go too crazy on signing these kids until we know what they can give us.

And unless an offer blows Kenny away, Dye stays here.

Florida Jim said:

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With Quentin returning I would put Quentin in rightfield and Dye becomes expendable for a proven center-fielder[Sizemore or Zobrist while dreaming].
Dye is playing well but is aging and can go rapidly.
Jenks would stay and get a hug for his good work.
Contreras let's see what he could entice.
Pods is not a centerfielder despite what he did in Milwaukee I cannot take another year of him in center.
Our pitching is looking much better and Danks should be signed for a longer contract. Colon should be forgotten.Richard needs a lot of counseling after each start as he seems to forget important things from his earlier performances.
Perhaps KW can package Anderson, Getz, Wise with some questionable minor leaguers , you know a nice mid-season yard sale, with Nationals perhaps?
This team is doing much better and I am happier with them despite their base-running, Alexii's carelessness, Anderson's very poor batting techniques.

Jack McDowell said:

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I agree with the evaluation that Scotty Pods is not a centerfield option. Also, Sizemore is going as quick physically as anyone in the game it seems! It will be interesting to see how Kenny Williams handles the Dye situation.

Sox fan since 72 said:

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Although, if Ozzie had no problem playing Rob Mackowiak in center field on a semi-regular basis three years ago, he isn't going to mind playing Podsednik out there against right-handers.

Any thoughts on Buehrle being the only Sox All-Star? I really didn't think they'd have more than one. Nobody in the extra man voting either. I suppose Dye could be added later if Josh Hamilton can't play.

Jack McDowell said:

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Dye could and probably should be there as a reserve. Jenks has a possibility as well.

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