Mitt Romney squeaks out win in Iowa. Don’t believe the media, the GOP race is over, Romney’s the nominee

Mitt Romney squeaks out win in Iowa.  Don’t believe the media, the GOP race is over, Romney’s the nominee

Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses yesterday by eight votes over Rick Santorum. Here are the results:

Mitt Romney: 25% 30,015

Rick Santorum: 25% 30,007

Ron Paul: 21% 26,219

Newt Gingrich: 13% 16,251

Rick Perry: 10% 12,604

Michele Bachmann 5% 6,073

Jon Huntsmann 1% 745

So now what?

Some are saying that this resets the race for the nomination. Don’t listen. It doesn’t.

Look, Santorum has no money. Santorum has no organization in any state other than Iowa. Santorum will lose his home state of Pennsylvania (against Romney and Obama). He’s not going to win the nomination. He will not win– or come close to winning– any other state. This is his flash in the pan. Allow Santorum to have his 15 minutes of fame– because after today, he’ll crumble. Evidence? Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Newt Gingrich.

Thankfully, this also means to end of Michele Bachmann. She has spent as much time in Iowa as Santorum and the Iowans clearly rejected her for Santorum. At least Santorum has some money coming in now; Bachmann’s fundraising dried up weeks ago. I’d be surprised if she doesn’t fold her tent before New Hampshire, because she doesn’t have the money to fly her staff there.

Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich’s campaigns are on life support. Perry will gut it out for through Florida as he at least can raise the money to do so. He spent $480 per vote (Romney spent $156; Santorum $21; Paul $104; Gingrich $92; and Bachmann $4 per vote). If he doesn’t come in at least second in New Hampshire and South Carolina (assuming Romney doesn’t win both states), his campaign will fold before Florida.

Gingrich, unfortunately, has not shown the resolve to do what it takes– actually work– to become president. The question on Newt is when he’ll fold up his campaign– not if. Gingrich should not be the president because when things get tough, he folds, and whines on his way out. We’ll see that in the next 14 days. For all the negative things you can say about Romney, at least when he’s on the ropes, he keeps fighting. Gingrich will fall after taking a shot on the chin.

Rom Paul is the wildcard. But he will not win the nomination. His supporters love him, but outside that 10%, the question will be who has the best shot of winning against Obama– Romney vs. Paul? The answer is Romney.

The upcoming primary calendar is as follows: New Hampshire, January 10; South Carolina, January 21; Florida, January 31; Maine and Nevada, February 4; Colorado and Minnesota, February 7th and Arizona and Michigan, February 28th.

If the anti-Romney forces do not coalesce around one person this week, its over. And even if it the anti-Romney support does come around one candidate– its likely too late. Romney has a campaign that has a national scope and has the money and support to sustain it. Santorum stayed with Romney in the first mile of a marathon (while sprinting), but he does not have the stamina to sustain his pace.

Filed under: National Politics

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  • RECOUNT. RECOUNT. I can find 8 more Rick voters somewhere in the washroom of the Ottumna Civic Center, or in the Woodsmith's Shop. ;-)

    But I guess you are consistent in saying yesterday that whatever the result, it doesn't mean much.

  • Well stated.

    Santorum received support of 1% of a state that represents 1% of the nation. After spending all of his time and all of his money there, to boot.

    He has zero appeal to the rest of the country. I have never seen a candidate so proud of being anti-immigrant, anti-women, and anti-gay and so out of touch with the majority of Americans. Did he ever even ask himself what it would require to be the President of ALL Americans?

    It will be a relief to see Bachmann and Perry fold and Gingrich implode over the next several weeks. With the sideshow over, Americans can finally see the contrast between Romney (Mr. 1%) and Obama. That's when the race will get interesting...

  • In reply to Brent Cohrs:

    Brent:

    But will there be a contrast? If the contrast is between Romney Care and Obama Care, there isn't much. Similarly, Dukakis was hailed for a Massachusetts miracle that wasn't, and the Mass. that Romney left wasn't much different.

    Either we have a case of (a) the 5 or 6 right wing candidates beating each other up or (b) the supporters thereof sitting home in Nov., with the question whether the far left also sits home, as Obama hasn't brought home the goods they expected, either. Then, like you said, it will be the representative of the 1% (but apparently not the avaricious portion of the 1%) against the community organizer and adjunct law professor. I might be interested in that, but doubt that very many others will be. At least up to now we have had the spectacle of Perry showing his lack of intellectual capacity, which might have had some effect on the electorate.

  • In reply to Brent Cohrs:

    I agree its a blessing to see Bachmann withdraw. Candidates like Bachmann and Santorum are so out of the mainstream that they do not have a chance of winning the nomination, let alone against Obama. Illinois governor's race proved that voters will elect a bad democrat rather than someone outside of the political mainstream. (at least that's true for Illinois-- I'm not certain about nationally. The national map would probaly look like Bush v. Gore with the bad dem picking up Florida or one other state and winning).

    (and I'm not calling Obama a bad candidate. He certainly is not excellent, probably somewhere above mediocre. I AM calling Quinn a bad candidate)

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    dont agree with you Mr author, yeah Rick has not had that much money but the speech he gave yesterday is generating that right now for him. he might just be the nominee

  • In reply to Daniel Okwaisie:

    Daniel: Thanks for reading. I've always said on this blog that just because I write something doesn't mean I'm right-- I understand that. Here's why I think money matters: Prior to sometime late last week, Santorum had no money. So he had little or no operation in New Hampshire, South Carolina or anywhere else. He has no shot in NH, so that one he has to sit out. So his best chance is SC and if he can make it, Florida. Given Romney has had people on the ground there for months, it's just too late for Santorum. Logistically, its impossible for him to win the nomination.

    I would bet $10,000 of Mitt's money on it!

    And if the logistical path isn't enough for him to overcome, now Santorum will have a spotlight on him. Mitt's PACs will make certain the GOP voter knows who Santorum is. There is a reason he got trounced in the Pennsylvania senate race in 2006. So like Cain, Bachmann, Perry and Gingrich before him, Santorum will also fade.

  • Yep. I agree. The Elephant race is all over, and the donkey will win in the end, and Romney will take his place on Mt. Losemore with McCain, Dole and Ford.

  • Good. I can stop googling "santorum".

  • Romney hasn't clinched it yet. The Conservatives are putting their heads together to head him off at the Pass(over).

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