Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses yesterday by eight votes over Rick Santorum. Here are the results:
Mitt Romney: 25% 30,015
Rick Santorum: 25% 30,007
Ron Paul: 21% 26,219
Newt Gingrich: 13% 16,251
Rick Perry: 10% 12,604
Michele Bachmann 5% 6,073
Jon Huntsmann 1% 745
So now what?
Some are saying that this resets the race for the nomination. Don’t listen. It doesn’t.
Look, Santorum has no money. Santorum has no organization in any state other than Iowa. Santorum will lose his home state of Pennsylvania (against Romney and Obama). He’s not going to win the nomination. He will not win– or come close to winning– any other state. This is his flash in the pan. Allow Santorum to have his 15 minutes of fame– because after today, he’ll crumble. Evidence? Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Newt Gingrich.
Thankfully, this also means to end of Michele Bachmann. She has spent as much time in Iowa as Santorum and the Iowans clearly rejected her for Santorum. At least Santorum has some money coming in now; Bachmann’s fundraising dried up weeks ago. I’d be surprised if she doesn’t fold her tent before New Hampshire, because she doesn’t have the money to fly her staff there.
Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich’s campaigns are on life support. Perry will gut it out for through Florida as he at least can raise the money to do so. He spent $480 per vote (Romney spent $156; Santorum $21; Paul $104; Gingrich $92; and Bachmann $4 per vote). If he doesn’t come in at least second in New Hampshire and South Carolina (assuming Romney doesn’t win both states), his campaign will fold before Florida.
Gingrich, unfortunately, has not shown the resolve to do what it takes– actually work– to become president. The question on Newt is when he’ll fold up his campaign– not if. Gingrich should not be the president because when things get tough, he folds, and whines on his way out. We’ll see that in the next 14 days. For all the negative things you can say about Romney, at least when he’s on the ropes, he keeps fighting. Gingrich will fall after taking a shot on the chin.
Rom Paul is the wildcard. But he will not win the nomination. His supporters love him, but outside that 10%, the question will be who has the best shot of winning against Obama– Romney vs. Paul? The answer is Romney.
The upcoming primary calendar is as follows: New Hampshire, January 10; South Carolina, January 21; Florida, January 31; Maine and Nevada, February 4; Colorado and Minnesota, February 7th and Arizona and Michigan, February 28th.
If the anti-Romney forces do not coalesce around one person this week, its over. And even if it the anti-Romney support does come around one candidate– its likely too late. Romney has a campaign that has a national scope and has the money and support to sustain it. Santorum stayed with Romney in the first mile of a marathon (while sprinting), but he does not have the stamina to sustain his pace.
Filed under: National Politics