A Chicago Tribune poll shows Rahm Emanuel with support of 44% of people surveyed ahead of the February 22nd municipal election. In the February 22nd contest for mayor, if the winner does not take over 50% of the vote, an April runoff occurs with the top two candidates facing each other in that runoff.
Carol Moseley Braun polled with 22% support; Gery Chico has 16% support of those polled; Miguel del Valle has the support of 7%. Nine percent are undecided.
The Tribune looked behind the poll numbers and found that 60% of those polled viewed Rahm Emanuel favorably; 39% of the people polled viewed Carol Moseley Braun favorably, while unfavorable views of her were at 30%. Rahm also enjoys the support of women over Moseley Braun 47% to 23%. According to the Tribune, Rahm even out polls Moseley Braun among blacks, earning support among 40% of the black community versus 39% of the black community for Carol Moseley Braun. Among Latinos- who could swing the race, especially in a Rahm Emanuel, Moseley Braun runoff- Rahm enjoys the support of 30% of the population, while Chico has 26% of its support, with del Valle at 23% and 9% for Moseley Braun.
However you shape it, the race is looking like Rahm's to lose. He has a lead of more than double over the next candidate, 44%-21%; he has the explicit support of the "first" black president, Bill Clinton and the implicit support of the real first black president, Chicagoan Barack Obama. Rahm also has the support of the Chicago business community and it has been reported he has a campaign war chest of nearly $12 million. Gery Chico reports having $2.5 million; there are no reports on the campaign funds of either Carol Moseley Braun and Miguel del Valle yet.
Finally, Rahm polls well across racial groups, whereas all the other candidates polling well with their specific racial group. That is one of the problems Carol Moseley Braun's campaign will face. After fighting to become the "consensus" black candidate, how does she pivot off of being the "black" candidate to become the candidate for all Chicagoans especially after announcing Bill Clinton betrayed the black community by supporting Rahm Emanuel?
As of January 21st, it's Rahm Emanuel's race to lose; however a lot can happen over 30 days. Stay tuned.