So What is Left for Dylan Cease? (James Norwood Signed or Updated Draft Pool Post)

So What is Left for Dylan Cease? (James Norwood Signed or Updated Draft Pool Post)


James Norwood's signing bonus of $175,000 was released yesterday. As of this point we have the figures for over half of the draft signings, and it is another chance to see how bad I am at predicting anything to do with baseball. Here is a link to our previous draft coverage.

1st Round $4,621,200:
C Kyle Schwarber (My Estimated Signing Bonus-3.8 million)
Confirmed Signing Bonus: 3.125 Million

I have to admit I was very happy to be wrong about this bonus. I figured that he would command at least the amount of the slot below him instead the Cubs were able to save nearly 1.5 million on this draft pick. I will also admit that I started having visions of big day 3 splash signings to go along with the middle round haul of high school arms.

2nd Round $1,250,400:
RHP Jake Stinnett (My Estimated Signing Bonus-1 million)
Confirmed Signing Bonus: 1 million

Hey I nailed one. I am good at this after all.

3rd Round $714,900:
C Mark Zagunis (Confirmed Signing Bonus-615K)

News of this bonus broke quickly after the draft, and so I didn't even get a chance to be wrong about this one.

4th Round $480,600:
LHP Carson Sands (Estimated Signing Bonus-1 million)
Confirmed signing bonus- 1.1 million

Okay was not too bad on this one. Though to be completely honest did have some help with the estimated bonus with a tweet saying that he would command double slot. That said I did correctly guess it was going to be over that so still putting this in the win column for me.

5th Round $359,900:
LHP Justin Steele (My Estimated Signing Bonus- 360K)
Confirmed signing bonus- 1 million

So all those savings in my budget from the Schwarber pick went right to Steele. When Steele's bonus was announced is when most of my hope for a major splash on day 3 went away. However, lets look at teh rest of the math to see if I was being too pessimistic.

6th Round $269,500:
RHP Dylan Cease (My Estimated Signing Bonus-1 million)

I still believe that my bonus prediction is in the right ball park on this one. It might take a couple extra hundred thousand but I feel confident that this gets done.

7th Round $201,900:
RHP James Norwood (My Estimated Signing Bonus-250k)
Confirmed signing bonus-$175,000

This signing is a minor surprise to me, and goes to show again how much front offices and third party baseball experts can differ in their rankings. Baseball America had Norwood as a top 100 draft prospect. MLB.com had him at 119. Norwood was taken with pick the 199th pick, and so I figured the Cubs would have to go a little over slot to entice him to sign. Instead the Cubs actually saved about 25 K on an intriguing upside play. It also suggests that baseball people were less high on Norwood for whatever reason.

8th Round $161,800:
LHP Tommy Thorpe (My Estimated Signing Bonus-100k)
9th Round $151,000:
RHP James Farris (My Estimated Signing Bonus-50k)
10th Round $141,000:
RHP Ryan Williams (My Estimated Signing Bonus-10k)
These three players have all signed, but their bonus figures remain unofficial. Thorpe is the only one with a legitimate chance of being overslot as a college junior, but the amount I've figured is just real rough guesses based upon my excitement level of them as a prospect. I have the Cubs saving nearly $300,000 on the trio, but that might be a bit aggressive, and wouldn't be surprised if I was off by a fair bit on the savings of these three.

Total Pool- $8,769,810
My Estimated Total Spent- $8,185,000
Confirmed Spent Total- $7,015,000
Difference between Confirmed Spent total and Bonus Pool- $1,754,810
Difference between My Estimated and Confirmed Spent- $1,175,000

Now if the three remaining players sign for my estimate bonuses that would leave the Cubs with over $450,000 to throw at day 3 overslots. John Arguello doing similar math has suggested that could be earmarked for Joe Martarano and Brad Deppermann. Martarano has already agreed to a contract and his father has already indicated that the deal was similar to the 100k deal he turned down last year from the Phillies. Deppermann might be a good guess for a deal in the area of Trevor Clifton which would be the amount the Cubs have left over to sign day 3 overslots.

The amount the Cubs have to spend seems to indicate that the big overslot candidates are not in play. Gilliam was identified as a long shot to begin with, but have to think that perhaps their fates are tied together. If Cease isn't willing to sign for a deal in the range of what is available then the Cubs have significant cash to give to Gilliam. Not signing Cease would cause the Cubs bonus pool to drop $282,706. That should leave the Cubs about 1.1 million to load into a dump truck to get either Isaiah Gilliam or DJ Peters to sign.

Unfortunately I have been informed that the Cubs are unlikely to be able to land any in that next tier of overslot candidates. Michael Cantu, Riley Adams and the other catchers that were drafted late are right out. Isaiah Gilliam and DJ Peters only work if Cease fails to sign. Gianni Zayas and Jordan Minch were two college arms that seemed intriguing and I thought the Cubs could get by a going a few hundred thousand over the hundred thousand limit. I was told flat out that they would require a lot more which puts them in the very unlikely to sign column.

At the end of the day I expect the Cubs to land picks 1 through 22 (with maybe John Michael Knighton not signing but not a huge loss either). I also expect those picks to leave just a few hundred thousand left over to make a play at later picks. The guy most likely to receive that appears to be high school righty Brad Deppermann. However, I was also told that this front office is capable of pulling a rabbit out of its hat when it comes to the draft. Even without that rabbit this was a very deep draft with a lot of high upside arms to go along with the best college bat in the draft.

@dabynsky

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