Obama v. Romney for U.S. President

Here is a preview of the upcoming campaign for president between the current President and his opposition challenger:

This will be the dirtiest campaign of your lifetime. The campaigns of these two candidates will spend an enormous amount of time ripping each other to shreds in the media and the third party Super PACs and special interest groups will spend hundreds of millions of dollars demonizing their policy opponent. The campaign will go to a dark and devisive place faster than any in recent memory.

Obama's has more paths to victory in the Electoral College race to 270 votes than Romney. Of Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada, Obama only needs to win 3 or 4 of these to reach 270. Romney must win at least 6 to get close to 270. Romney has little room for error, Obama has more breathing room.

While there are more swing states than in recent elections, the campaigns will likely zone in on 4 or 5 and stake the election there. Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada are almost certainly going to make the final cut.

Obama's best path to victory is a divide and conquer strategy. He has to motivate his base and democratic leaning independents to feverishly turn against conservatism in all its forms and philosophies. The President has a minimal record of accomplishment to run on, thus to win he must find a scapegoat and lambaste them so he can blame someone else for his underwhelming record.

Romney will spend a lot of time campaigning with GOP house and senate candidates as security for the party in case he loses. The party can still have a good election night even with a Romney loss, if they hold the House and capture a majority in the Senate.

Obama is going to be a one man show. He and his camp could care less about Congress and won't use the President in many races to help Democrat candidates.

Romney's VP pick will be scrutinized for inconsistencies and scandal, so a bad choice could scuttle his fragile campaign.

Obama's biggest positives are his personal and family appeal. A majority of Americans like the Obamas and identify with them. A majority agree with the President's handling of foreign affairs and the international community. The President's is a superior campaigner and orator with the ability to whip up a crowd on the campaign trail.

Romney's biggest positives are his experience, his looks and his wife. People like Ann and they want their President to look like a sharp businessman. It may seem silly, but every poll pans out that fact. His experience as governor and senior business executive allow him to pass the smell test on his ability to do the job of President. He still needs to pass the Commander-in-Chief test by showing a firm grasp on military and foreign affairs questions, but assuming he does, people can envision him as the President. His record as a "turn=around" artist will work in his favor as long as the U.S. economy stays in the doldrums without much momentum.

Obama's biggest weakness is his record, specifically the perceived lack of economic growth and the health care reform mess that most people are still confused by. The President has gained the reputation as a poor policy communicator with the American public and is perceived by many as cold, distant and aloof. His negative tone has tarnished his once positive luster as a fresh face in a stale town.

Romney's biggest weakness is the perception that he is out of touch with average Americans and has no idea what working families in America are dealing with today. He is considered disingenuous and lacking core philosophical positions. He has not shaken the perception that he is a slick businessman without a heart who will change his positions on a dime to make certain people happy.

While most politicos believe this race will be won or lost by a razor think margin, I think a landslide either way is not out of the question.

If the economy hits another rough patch or foreign conflicts take a decidedly anti-American turn, Obama's approval rating will plummet and he could lose as many as 33 or 34 states. If the economy does pick up strength, the U.S. achieves more foreign policy successes and Romney fails to shake his elitism problem, Obama could capture all the swing states and open up a 100+ electoral vote victory.

One thing we know for sure is that the race will be long, bitter, painful, angry and full of stunning moments. Let's hope the country avoids the temptation to just check out of the process and sit out this election.

Filed under: National Goverment


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  • "Obama's biggest weakness is his record, specifically the perceived lack of economic growth and the health care reform mess that most people are still confused by. " And who came up with this kind of health care system? Romney. Romney may try to distinguish the Massachusetts must purchase from the Obama one by somehow arguing that the Commerce Clause prevents the feds from doing what he did in the state, but that will be moot, one way or the other by July (and I predict that the law will be upheld, but won't bet on that as a certainty). If Romney thinks that he can run on the basis that the states can do it but the feds can't, I will bet that 99.999995% of the voters won't understand or care about that distinction. In the meantime, someone will have to come up with an alternative, as the current system is broken.

    Otherwise, I agree that only a few states will be in play, and thus, if there are dirty ads in the Presidential election, Illinois voters won't see them (unless they are directed to NW Indiana). Probably will be a good number of dirty ads in Congressional races (especially the 8th, even though most of us can't vote there).

  • Obama will win. And it will not be on the basis of the Affordable Care Act directly. It will be because the nation has past the tipping point of those who produce and those who receive from the producers, with those who receive in the majority.

    Not to mention the usual Democrat vote fraud.

    Obama's job in his next four years will be the deconstruction of the country as we know into the way he wanted to "fundamentally transform" it -- i.e., as the European model with a hammer.

    The wild card over his second turn will be the bankruptcy of the US. Then we could have Obama as president of life.

  • Romney will lose handily as he and the GOP don't really have much of an argument other than "Obama is bad". Plus Romney is about as comfortable on the stump as he is in a pair of undersized penny loafers.

    The downside for the country is that the GOP will drift further from reality and Main St.

    Specifically, when Romney loses badly, the GOP will then decide that their candidate wasn't "conservative enough", and didn't stick to "conservative principals".

    So, next time around you'll be trying to shove another extremist like Sarah Palin in our faces, and trying to end contraception, enact mass deportation of Mexicans, create massive deficits to stimulate economic "growth", and start a war with Iran.

    The United States would have been better off with Santorum losing on Election Day.

  • In reply to Andy Frye:

    Andy's reply is the reason Obama will win.

    Why? He sees the GOP as drifting further from reality and Main Street, when it is the Dem/liberal/progressive/socialist machine that is inflicting regulation upon tax on ordinary people to the point of capitulation. There can never be enough of Big Government directing things.

    Also, he confuses individual freedom with totolitarism because he must think that a decree by one man -- the President-- should require that religious institutions must go against their beliefs and provide whatever (in this case contraception) to their employees at no cost.

    He also thinks, apparently, that country's borders are useless, as illegal aliens must be accepted in large numbers and give the same access to what legal US citizens have.

    And... oddly enough, he blames Republicans for creating massive deficits, when Obama has literally outspent all presidents from George Washington to George Bush COMBINED in 3.5 years.

    This is your Obama voter. Uniformed and needing a civics lesson. Then again, Obama wants to "fundamentally transform" the United States, so it is Obama-civics that is being taught on the fly and lapped up by those who do not know history.

  • Obama will win not because he is doing a good job, but, similar to what Richard said, the country has had 4 years worth of kids that turned 18, and have alraedy been brainwashed to vote Democrat. This country will continue to get more and more liberal every year, especially as govenment continues to grow. More and more will be dependent on government, education will continue to decline, and religion will continue to fade. A grey picture but unfortunately realistic. The voucher system is the only way to change the momentum and end the liberal brainwashing taking place in public education. Hearts and minds need to be changed.

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    Romney hasnt even been named the nominee yet. Ron Paul or the USA is done. Romney is owned by Goldman Sachs so is Barry.

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