2011 Cubs predictions

For several years now, my good friends Andrew Kapral, Trevor Sierra and I have made several statistical predictions about each upcoming Cubs season. Since 2007, Andrew has won our little competition twice and tied another time, Trevor has tied once, and I've won once. 

We always predict how many games the Cubs will win and have continued to predict how many games Zambrano will win purely for its comedic value as we typically overshoot it to an absurd degree. 

We've got a few new ones this year, including our first truly sabermetric prediction thanks to Andrew.

*2010 totals in parentheses

Cubs wins (75)
Andrew 88
Brandon 82
Trevor 82
Zambrano wins (11)
Trevor 16
Andrew 15
Brandon 13
Soriano OBP (.322)
Trevor .333
Andrew .333
Brandon .319
Pena HR (28)
Trevor 36
Brandon 34
Andrew 32
Castro errors (27)
Andrew 37
Brandon 20
Trevor 18
Wood WHIP (1.39)
Trevor 1.325
Andrew 1.30
Brandon 1.28
Silva starts (21)
Andrew 26
Brandon 8
Trevor 3
Byrd weighted runs created, or wRC (83.7)
Andrew 89
Trevor 79.9
Brandon 78.2
From FanGraphs: Weighted Runs Created (wRC) is an improved version of Bill James' old Runs Created (RC) statistic, which attempted to quantify a player's total offensive value and measure it by runs.  This way, instead of looking at a player's line and listing out all the details (e.g. 23 2B, 15 HR, 55 BB, 110 K, 19 SB, 5 CS), you could synthesize all the information into one metric and say, "Player x was worth 24 runs to his team last year." 

Check out this page for more details and context.

Final NL Central standings

Brandon
Brewers
Reds
Cardinals
Cubs
Astros
Pirates

Trevor
Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Cardinals
Astros
Pirates

Andrew
Cubs
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Pirates
Astros

Filed under: Cubs

Tags: Cubs predictions

Comments

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  • Oh boy. I'm hoping Andrew is wrong about those Silva starts.

  • Did you see Reed Johnson made the team and Fernando Perez was cut? Sad day for Chicago humor. On the bright side, I'm going to get a Darwin Barney jersey right now.

  • MMM... A few things on these predications.

    First, I am disappointed with how rational Brandon and Trevor are being with their predictions for cubs wins and division rankings.

    Second, I hope Quade saved me from my own stupidity when it comes to predicting Silva starts.

    Third, I either mistyped or smoked a pound of crack before predicting Castro's errors. The sad part is that he only needs 29 for me to win which may be within his range.

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