NFL Picks: Week 3

NFL Picks: Week 3

So I'm off to a great start this week. Stupid, frustrating Eagles. Next time I want to bet on the Chip Kelly team, can somebody please remind me that they always turn it over? Thanks.

Cardinals (+7.5) OVER SAINTS

The Saints showed last week they will struggle against great corners. Drew Brees beat a terrible Tampa Bay team by as narrow a margin as Geno Smith. The last person they want to see is Patrick Peterson, who is blossoming into the best corner in the league. And Honey Badger! Honey Badger don't give a $h*t! The LSU duo will cause enough problems to keep it close.

VIKINGS (-7) OVER Browns

Lost in the the wild game from Soldier Field last week was a solid second half performance from Christian Ponder. Now you have the reigning MVP looking desperately for his first win in front of the raucous home crowd. Expect the Viking horn to sound frequently. On the other side, Brandon Weedon stinks enough, so imagine what his backup must be like. Their starting runningback showed up a few days ago as the decrepit Willis McGahee replaced the departed Trent Richardson.

Packers (-3) OVER BENGALS

Packers have an offense and are on a mission after the loss in San Francisco. They had their first 100 yard rusher since 2010 last week. The Bengals, are on short rest and primed for a let-down after their Monday night win against the division rival, Steelers. In Cincinnati games after playing the Steelers, the Bengals are 3-14 ATS. And never forget, Aaron Rodgers vs. Andy Dalton.

TITANS (-3) OVER Chargers

The Titans are a good team with an identity. They're one of those great running and defense ball-control teams. The Chargers, on the other hand, were the beneficiaries of the Eagles blowing it last week. This is their second straight trip to the East Coast, and this team will possess the ball for more than just a blink of an eye.

Buccaneers (7.5) OVER PATRIOTS

The Patriots five-best receivers might want to try wearing their gloves without KY on them this week. That's the only logical explanation for their inordinate amount of drops. The Patriots have 10 days off, but never put crappy receivers against Darrell Revis.

Rams (+3.5) OVER COWBOYS

Welp, Dallas looks to be our same ol' Cowboys. They're loaded with talent (Des Bryant, Demarcus Ware, Demarco Murray, Romo, etc.), but continue to blow late games. Whether due to Romo pulling a Romo or Jason Garrett burning timeouts like s'mores, the Cowboys' tendency to underperform should be a feast for bettors. They play down to competition. In Dallas' last 50 games, the underdog has covered 72% of the time. And in the last 20 home games, Dallas has only covered 4. Expect the sneaky good Rams to keep the trend.

Lions (+1) OVER REDSKINS

Robert Griffin III should probably be sitting since he looks like he wants to cry every time he plants on a follow-through. The defense is on pace to give up approximately 1,980,735 points this season (I didn't have time to do the math). Calvin Johnson may break records today.

Texans (-2.5) OVER RAVENS

The Ravens offense looks putrid. Ray Rice is a shell of himself. They rely way to much on Dallas Clark and Brandon Stokely, on pace for a combined 128 catches despite being older than all my uncles. And Joe Flacco has the most overpaid deal since the Enron CEOs.

DOLPHINS (-2) OVER Falcons

The Falcons struggle outside of the Georgia-dome. This Roddy White injury is a real concern. The Dolphins are real contenders to steal the AFC East.

PANTHERS (+1.5) OVER Giants

94% of the public is on the Giants, and the public is always wrong. The Panthers are a talented team with a bad reputation, and the Giants are a reputable team that probably no longer has the talent. Expect the winds of hype to change.

JETS (-2) OVER Bills

Rex Ryan, for all his weight-fluctuations and foot-fetishes, can do one thing well: defend quarterbacks. Ryan has won six of seven of his games against rookie quarterbacks. Are we sure that a team that barely lost to the Patriots and barely beat the Panthers is actually good? The Patriots might stink and the Ron Rivera makes a living of blowing games. Take the team with the better defense and running game.

Jaguars (+19) OVER SEAHAWKS

Another letdown game, Seattle has lost nine straight ATS after playing San Francisco. Don't ever for a moment picture the Jaguars winning (unless they eventually sign TEEEEBOOWWWW!!!) but they'll lost by less than 19.

49ERS (-10) OVER Colts

The opposite side of a letdown game... a pissed off game! Jim Harbaugh is going to have the 49ers chomping at the bit to make a statement. Trent Richardson may be a nice addition as the season goes along, but not against the best running defense in the NFL.

Bears (-2.5) OVER STEELERS

The Steelers are going to try everything to avoid going 0-3 on the national nightcap. One of those games where you throw every trick in the bag at the other team. The problem is the Steelers don't have many tricks in their bag. Their runningbacks have combined for 70 yards rushing. Their best receiving options would be good third receivers on other teams. And their quarterback only gets half a second play, approximately, to make a throw. It saddens me, but Pittsburgh moves to 0-3.

BRONCOS (-16) OVER Raiders

Who would have thought my preseason prediction would work in the opposite manner. With Von Miller out and other key role players coming back from injuries, it looked like the Broncos would get better en route to the playoffs. Instead, they've suffered a crucial injury and things with Vonn Miller are turning A-Rod-esque.  Rest assured for Monday night, though, as Manning in a night game will always beat Terrelle Pryor on the road.

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 7-8-1

Season: 15-16-2

Filed under: NFL

Tags: Gambling, NFL

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