The top 6 reasons why Bruce Rauner won the IL Governor's race tonight

The top 6 reasons why Bruce Rauner won the IL Governor's race tonight:

6. Rauner had a clear message from the get go-- even in the IL Republican Primary: Get state spending (and in particular state employee pension benefits) and state taxes under control. Get onerous state regulations out of the way of the private sector-- and thru tax cuts, regulatory relief, tort reform and workmen's compensation reform, stimulate dramatically the IL economy and private sector job growth.

5. Rauner had the money to be competitive in terms of total spending on this race, including 28 million dollars of his wealth and about 37 million  dollars of contributions, allowing him to outspend Quinn by 2 to1.  Rauner had to outspend Quinn by 2 to 1 because Quinn had an army of State, Cook County and City of Chicago employees to help him and the IL Democratic Party organization is way stronger than the GOP.

4. Rauner built a strong state wide organization.  He didn't buy the election. But, Rauner did buy a strong, state wide organization that would allow him to be competitive with Quinn in a way that Brady (2010), Topinka (2006) and Jim Ryan (2002) were not. If you went to a campaign event, you would see that Rauner often, if not always, had out-reach type people working the crowd and the media.  Moreover, those out-reach people were working for Rauner day to day.  For example, this reporter interviewed Hermene Hartman after a church service 10 days ago at the black New Beginnings Church (Paster Corey Brooks) on the South Side of Chicago. Hartman (African-American  publisher of N'Digo) told me she had been paid $100,000 for her work for Rauner since January, 2014.  Similarly, Wendell O'Neal, an African-American office manager for Rauner on the South Side of Chicago (Chatham) was also at the event after the church service-- working the crowd and the media.

3. Republicans since Jim Edgar's 1990 and 1994 gubernatorial wins have believed that to win the IL Governor's race, the Republican candidate has to win 20% of the City of Chicago vote. Rauner worked hard for the Chicago vote, including African-American and Hispanic vote.  Tonight, he is winning 22% of the Chicago vote (Senator Brady got 17% in 2010).  Rauner also out performed recent Republican Gov candidates in suburban Cook county and the Collar counties that ring Cook County.

2.  Rauner is a likeable guy who, despite his  $700 million net worth, passes the "you would like to have a beer or cup of coffee with him test." Moreover, Rauner, more than Quinn, is willing to discuss and think about public policy issues in a serious way-- while Gov. Quinn cautiously sticks to platitudes. There are voters who are impressed by a serious discussion of the issues. Further, Rauner  has had a long time commitment, with his wife, Diana, of working hard to help African-American and Hispanic  kids escape failing public schools-- with a choice to attend charter or private schools. Also, the fact that Rauner and his wife are pro-Choice on abortion and moderate on gay rights helped him with  large segments of suburban, married women.

1. Finally, the people of Illinois have had enough with corruption, patronage and a poor economy. Rauner represents the change they are looking for. It is as simple as that.

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  • The other thing brought up on Channel 7 is that Rauner did better than Brady in the Cook suburbs and collar counties. As I noted last time when Kirk won but Brady didn't, the social issues hard line apparently does not play in those areas, despite what the far right wing contended.

    There are other indications that suburban Cook is starting to get fed up with the Dems,, but not enough, for instance, in the 57th, last time it was about 66%-33%, but this time with a far weaker Rep. candidate it was 55%-45%.

    The real question is if the provisional ballots are a wild card. People should have figured out before now that if Illinois can screw up something at the polls, it will, but those interviewed waiting in line to register on election day all claimed to have just moved here.

  • 1. Finally, the people of Illinois have had enough with corruption, patronage and a poor economy. Rauner represents the change they are looking for. It is as simple as that.

    That is an intensely naive statement. I don't disagree with the fact that the state is and has been corrupt for at least my entire lifetime but to think Mr. Rauner is the messiah that will deliver us from a century of corruption is just silly.

  • Actually, people voted against Pat Quinn rather than for Bruce Rauner. Rauner may have had a clear message but he never once said how he would get state spending under control. I think Rauner is in for a rude awakening. Given the veto-proof Democratic majority in the State Legislature, he will not have an easy time doing whatever he wants to do - and we still have no idea what Rauner DOES want to do!

  • Additionally, I always said that Ronald Reagan would make a charming dinner guest -- but I surely did not want him as President!

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