Tom Bevan, Co-founder and Executive Editor of Realclearpolitics.com, seemed to hit the nail on the head when he taped our show, Public Affairs, last Sunday. He said that Mitt Romney has about a 65% chance of winning the Republican Party Presidential nomination, with former PA Senator Santorum and former House Speaker Gingrich at about 10% each. However, more importantly, Bevan predicts there is about a 15% chance that nobody gets the requisite majority to win on the first ballot at the National Republican Party convention this summer, meaning that the choice is make by a “brokered convention.” [Bevan, a former advertising professional and Princeton alum, discusses this prediction about 13 minutes into the show].
Bevan predicts that the top three choices for the Party to turn to in a brokered convention are Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (also known as President George W. Bush’s little brother). With Romney still not connecting with voters and Santorum’s campaign starting to implode with his obsession with birth control, abortion, same sex marriage, the “theology” of Obama and anything but the necessary steps to release the private sector from onerous government regulation and taxes and the general population from Obamacare, a brokered convention is looking to be much more likely than 15%. Bevan noted that Daniels, Bush and Christie would each be much stronger candidates against Obama in the Fall, 2012 General Presidential Election than Romney, Santorum or Gingrich. Once again, Realclearpolitics.com is way ahead of the power curve. [For those of you who are Ron Paul fans, I would hope you would concede that while the consistent, libertarian Texas Congressman has many admirable traits and issue positions, he has virtually no chance of winning the Republican presidential election, and even less chance of beating President Obama in the general election-- but please keep reading this blog and submitting comments].
Watch RCP’s Tom Bevan debate and discuss these and other 2012 Republican Presidential Primary issues with show host Jeff Berkowitz tonight at 8:30 pm on Cable Ch. 21 on CANTV’s Public Affairs. You can also watch the show with Bevan-Berkowitz here.
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Tags: Barack Obama, Brokered national Republican Party convention, house speaker Gingrich, Jeb Bush, Jeff Berkowitz, libertarian, Mitch Daniels. Chris Christie, Mitt Romney, Obamacare, onerous government regulation, onerous taxes, Princeton alums, Real Clear Politics, Rick Santorum, Romney can't connect, Ron Paul, Santorum campaign implodes, Tom Bevan