The Top 5 reasons why Romney may yet blow the Republican Presidential Nomination
- Foster Freeze is Senator Santorum’s “angel” benefactor. Sheldon Adelson is Newt Gingrich’s “angel” benefactor. In a world in which federal campaign contributions are limited to about 5K per couple per election cycle, Adelson can and has given more than 10 million dollars to Newt’s superpac and Freeze can and has given more than 1 million dollars to Santorum’s superpac. Under the argument that campaign contributions are speech and since the First Amendment protects speech, so long as Freeze and Adelson give their money to entities that do not “coordinate” their activities with the candidates they favor, Freeze and Adelson can and will keep fueling the campaigns of Santorum and Gingrich even though it appears unlikely either will win the nomination. Freeze and Adelson can’t give that kind of money directly to the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns because the U. S. Supremes have ruled that the public’s right to regulate the corruption that might come from unlimited giving to the campaign outweighs the benefit of protecting that “speech” of Santorum and Gingrich. But, the Supremes say it’s a different story with respect to superpacs that aren’t a part of the candidate campaigns. So, due to this nuanced view of the First Amendment, the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns can live on fumes to continue their quest, perhaps up until the Presidential convention starts in late August.
- Gingrich (south), Paul (randomly located libertarian states) and Santorum (midwest) are strong in different areas of the country, so each can pile up delegates from different regions and by the end of the primary election season, prevent Romney from getting a majority of the delegates.
- Cong. Ron Paul (R- Texas) is a true believer in the libertarian way. Knowing he can’t win the nomination, he is still happy to stay in the race, advancing his philosophy of free markets, individual control and a restrained foreign policy. Also, by not attacking Romney and attacking the others in debates, Paul may be ingratiating himself (and his son, Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)) with the next President of the U. S.
- Romney can execute his campaign game plan quite well and continue to pick up significant delegate numbers, as he did yesterday in Michigan and Arizona.
- Romney continues to suffer from the charge that he is inauthentic—not a “real conservative.” He can’t seem to lay out his philosophy in a consistent, persuasive, cogent manner that attracts the party’s base and snuffs out his competition. Meanwhile, almost everyone believes that Governor Mitch Daniels (R-IN), Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) and former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) would make a stronger candidate for President than Romney. However, Daniels, Christie and Bush all say, publicly, they don’t want the nomination. But, as we go toward Super Tuesday, with about 25% of the delegates at stake, the dream of an open convention turning to Daniels, Christie or Bush and having the “chosen one,” accept the nomination will continue.