Hawthorne Carryover Late Pick 4: December 16, 2017

After a day of speed, speed, and more speed, Jochero rallied furiously from last to run down pacesetter The Mess in Friday's Hawthorne finale.  A 50/1 longshot, Jochero enabled a single astute handicapper to scoop the late Pick 3 pool to the tune of over $10K.  The longshot's victory was also enough to trigger a $16,388 carryover into Saturday's Late Pick 4 at Hawthorne.

The sequence covers races 6 through 9 -- and, coincidentally, all four races are six-furlong dirt sprints.  Here, we take a look at the sequence, complete with an ABC Chart of the races.  Let's dive in, and let's go for a piece of that Pick 4 pool tomorrow!

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Race 6: Allowance, three-year-olds and up, non-winners of one race other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state-bred allowance OR N2L, six furlongs on the dirt, post time 3:25pm CST

A Horses:

  • Warcraft (5) - Keeps Rodney Prescott in the irons, likes the distance, and his forward style will be an asset.  [Top Selection]
  • Nyoman (9) - In excellent form, but taking a class rise, and really needs the track to even out and not play so well for speed.  After dark, would be a must use; in daylight, watch the first half of the card closely.

B Horses:

  • River Cactus (6) - Inconsistent, and untested on fast dirt.  But, his best races put him right in this, and his maiden score suggests he can sit closer to the pace than he did in his last-out victory.

C Horses:

  • Dragunov (1) - Barn strong third off the lay, and does switch turf to dirt.  Allowance level may be over his head, though.
  • Picadilly Roadster (2) - Moves up on the switch back to a dry track.  Has an outside shot if the track plays fairly, and if he can hearken back to his Gulfstream form.

X Horses:

  • Saidtomyself (3) - Level is a little tough for him, and there are several better closers in here if the track proves fair to off-pace sorts.
  • Smart Like a Fox (4) - Probably needs an easy lead.  Probably won't get it.
  • Legendary Vision (7) - Wheels back in a week and takes a step up in class.  May be a pace factor, but won't be alone, and faces far better horses here than the ones he narrowly beat last week.
  • Or Sunday (8) - Would hold his own against this set over a wet track, but not over a dry one.

Race 7: $7,500 claiming, three-year-olds and up, Illinois-registered, six furlongs on the dirt, post time 3:55pm CST

A Horses:

  • Georgie My Boy (3) - The layoff and the spotty worktab are questions, but if he's anything like he was before the time off, he's the inside speed.
  • Shanghai Red (5) - Tactically versatile, loves the track, and should fit well at this state-bred level.
  • Even Fever (6) - If Georgie My Boy is not the same, he probably ends up rail speed from the six-hole.  He loves the track, and Santiago was on fire Friday.  [Top Selection]
  • Roski (8) - Won at this level and distance last out, and has both front-end fight and a stalking gear.

B Horses:

  • Flying Mr K. (4) - Gets a rider upgrade, and comes second off the lay.  Level fits beautifully.  Big question is the off-pace running style, as he may leave himself just too much to do if there's a speed bias like yesterday.

C Horses:

  • Four Left Feet (7) - Off-pace style may not help, but he is in as easy as he has ever been, and he does like the course and distance.
  • Iker (11) - Frontrunning style helps, but outside post hurts his chances, and he also loses Edgar Perez.

X Horses:

  • Prize Native (1) - On the slow side for this field, and deep closing style will do him no favours before sunset.
  • The Sligo Poet (2) - Cold connections, needs the lead, and not getting the lead against this set.
  • Edging (9) - Fits on class and speed, but a consummate underneath type.
  • Mafia Muscle Man (10) - Has some back form at Hawthorne, but based on any of his recent form, he is outclassed in this spot.
  • Battle N Away (12) - I love the overalls, perhaps more than life itself, but the outside post is no good, and on dirt he's a little too slow for these.  Save him for across town next summer.

Race 8: Allowance optional claiming, three-year-olds and up, non-winners of $9,800 twice other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state-bred allowance OR N3L OR claiming price $25,000, six furlongs on the dirt, post time 4:25pm CST

A Horses:

  • Dustem Carolina (4) - Proved last out that she belongs at this level, and is at least as good on a dry track as she is on a wet one.  Likely gets the first run on speed.  [Top Selection]
  • Rhodium (5) - Faster early than Black Angel or Helluva Notion.  Gets an inside (albeit probably pressured) frontrunning trip, and moves way up on the return to a dry track.

B Horses:

  • Dr Winn Kyi (1) - Rail draw is good, she could get a setup if the speeds on the outside fire, and she is in the best form of her life.  However, all her races this meet have come later in the day, when the track plays better to closers -- she's a deep closer who may well be running against the last rays of a speed bias here.
  • Hay Little Bit (2) - Closed from well off the pace to win a route last out.  The waters are deeper here, but her Indiana form shows some tactical speed, and some ability to run well (even at a sprint!) from closer to the pace than she was last month.

C Horses:

  • Oh So Terrible (3) - The level fits, and she has both tactical speed and some sneaky good turf sprint form at Gulfstream last winter.  Dirt is the question, as she has never tried it.
  • Helluva Notion (8) - Class-dropper will be a pace factor from the outside, and has some game on the lead.  Outside post does her no favours, though.

X Horses:

  • Buch of Daisies (6) - Did show some tactical speed in a win at Tampa in April, but gets a stiff class test here, and has to take an unlikely large step forward to beat these.
  • Black Angel (7) - Should be a pace factor from the outside, but won't clear with Rhodium in the field.

Race 9: $5,000 claiming, three-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, non-winners of two races since June 16 OR non-winners of three races in 2016-2017 OR N4L, six furlongs on the dirt, post time 4:55pm CST

A Horses:

  • Queen of Wildwood (3) - Has a forward yet rateable style, fits the level, and new trainer Ingrid Mason excels first off the claim.
  • Shut the Gate (4) - Solid recent form, and should get a comfy trip just off the speed.
  • Sperling (10) - The sprint trip is a question, but the outside closing style can be just the ticket late in the day, and she drops to the easiest level of her career.  At a price, she has a lot of appeal.  [Top Selection]

B Horses:

  • Lady Dozer (12) - It's the right time of day for an outside closer.  She's not consistent, but her better races put her right in the picture, and she drops from open to beaten company.  She also switches to a strong rider in Victor Santiago.
  • Eileen Evelyn (13) - Not likely to draw in off the AE list, but if she does, don't leave her out.  Santiago booted her home to a second-place finish against better last out, and the outside can get good after sunset.

C Horses:

  • Tryst Cat (2) - The layoff is a major question, but the level fits, and she has a good stalking style and a lot of form at Hawthorne.  Also, this barn surprised in yesterday's finale with Jochero.
  • Galehorn (6) - Better at six and a half furlongs, but has enough form going six furlongs not to count out completely, particularly with the switch back to Rodney Prescott in the saddle.
  • Tam (11) - Better on the grass than the dirt, but she's in as easy as she's ever been.

X Horses:

  • Valid Offer (1) - The company at Hawthorne has proven just a bit over her head.  Fits better at Hazel.
  • Dundalk Bay (5) - Would have to take a step up to beat these, and better going a bit shorter than six furlongs.
  • Fahionably Late (7) - Does best when she can get the lead, and won't get it here.
  • Appollos Baby Girl (8) - Will try to be a pace factor early, but won't get it easy, and is a bit slow for these.
  • Artic Vortex (9) - Has tactical speed, and fits the level, but is a consummate underneath type.  Use her in exactas, trifectas, superfectas, and the high-five -- but don't waste the money on top.

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