In a partnership with Thorofan, we'll be offering Bankroll plays for each day of the Saratoga meet. Each day, we'll take fifty dollars ($50.00) and use it throughout the card and try to turn it into bigger money. The goal is simple: end the meet with more than we started. A scorecard will be maintained at the bottom of the post.
We remind that picks will be voided in two scenarios: 1) the selection (or part of it) scratches and the picks are not updated to reflect it and 2) the race changes surfaces. Saratoga is famous for its pop-up thunderstorms that deluge in an hour, go away, and leave an off-the-turf card in its wake.
An agreement wasn't in place between all parties for day 1. So our piece will be a day behind the current day of the meet. July 28, which is covered below, is Day 9 of the meet.
Day 8 Recap: In the Prioress, SO MANY WAYS was too close to a hot early pace and stalled in the lane, finishing fourth. So the win and place wager on her goes to the recycle bin. In the Diana, LAUGHING took the field on a merry chase and had the last laugh, winning in a photo with DREAM PEACE. While the exacta box didn't pan out, the win and place wagers did. For $2, LAUGHING paid $15.80 to win and $6.70 to place. At the three dollar level we advocated, the return was $23.70 to and win $10.05 to place. The end of the day sees a return of $33.75 on our fifty.
Now that we have a new fifty dollar bill to spend, let's go!
Saratoga Race Course -- Race 1 -- Sir Cat Stakes -- One mile on Inner Turf -- post time 1:00 pm ET
Analysis for turf only in this stakes restricted to those who have never won a graded grass stakes. Not often you see Alydar pop up these days as a broodmare sire, but he does on BELLARMINE. Last time out he was wide all the way around in the G3 Matt Winn at Churchill where he pressed honest fractions then crawled home. Cross that out and focus on four money races, including a win two back at Churchill and a sneaky good turf race in the career debut. Pedigree doesn't appear grassy but some digging shows it might have enough grass in it. WINNING CAUSE won the G3 Lexington, defeating a next-out G3 turf winner on the poly three back. After winning the Lexington he was taken to Canada, where he cashed checks in some Queens' Plate feeders. Acquiring Rosario is never a bad thing. G1 Breeders' Futurity winner JOHA sees the starter here. What's a G1 winner like JOHA doing in this group? His G1 was on the synthetic at Keeneland and is discarded from the conditions (see also WINNING CAUSE) and he's been in the same zip code as G3 Hill Prince) winner Notacatbutalllama last out in an open stakes on downstate weeds. Going third off the layoff in this event.
#2 BELLARMINE (6/1)
#1 WINNING CAUSE (7/2)
#7 JOHA (2/1)
Longshot: #4 HAMP (10/1) beat two-other-than allowance types last time at Colonial Downs, but he did beat older types in that race in mile race. He goes in against his own group, acquires Lezcano, and the trainer's starters, though few, are a fifty-fifty proposition to hit the board.
Day 8 Wager: Wagers are for grass only. Moving from Leparoux to Castellano might be what BELLARMINE needs. 6/1 morning line is dreamy with two main track only runners, but there's no Notacatbutalllama in this bunch and it's a race eager for a new face. Let's use him on top in the win/place pools. Fitting on conditions are a pair of Keeneland graded stakes winners in WINNING CAUSE and JOHA, who get played in smaller two-way (that is, in both the first and second slots) exactas including our win pick at equal strength. In fancy wager terms, this a "box and key" play, with the 2 keyed over the 1 and 7. And we're flipping it around, the 1 and 7 over the 2 to get the box wager. (Below, it's split into two wagers for reader ease.)
Wager (Turf Only):
---$5 Exacta Box of BELLARMINE over WINNING CAUSE, 2-1 ($10)
---$5 Exacta Box of BELLARMINE over JOHA, 2-7 ($10)
---$15 Win and $15 Place on #2 BELLARMINE ($30)
- Day 7 Investment: $50
- Day 7 Return: $33.75
- Total Return: $199.75
- Total Investment: $350.00
- Meet ROI Entering day 8: -42.93%
- Meet Profit/Loss Entering Day 8: $150.25 loss