Saratoga Bankroll Day 6

In a partnership with Thorofan, we'll be offering Bankroll plays for each day of the Saratoga meet.   Each day, we'll take fifty dollars ($50.00) and use it throughout the card and try to turn it into bigger money.  The goal is simple: end the meet with more than we started.  A scorecard will be maintained at the bottom of the post.

We remind that picks will be voided in two scenarios: 1) the selection (or part of it) scratches and the picks are not updated to reflect it and 2) the race changes surfaces. Saratoga is famous for its pop-up thunderstorms that deluge in an hour, go away, and leave an off-the-turf card in its wake.

An agreement wasn't in place between all parties for day 1. So our piece will be a day behind the current day of the meet.  July 26, which is covered below, is Day 7 of the meet.

Day 5 Recap: Although the top pick finished off the board, the second choice did win (should have waffled the other way...). But for the bankroll, the plan was to cash if either CENTRAL BANKER or STRIKE THE NOTE finished in the top two.  The plan worked.  CENTRAL BANKER won and paid $10.40 to win, so $10 to win on him rewarded us with $52.00.  We also had a $10 place ticket on him, and that yielded $27.50.  So for the day, a $79.50 output on a $50 input.  The win/place tickets on STRIKE THE NOTE and the exacta box of CENTRAL BANKER and STRIKE THE NOTE are souvenirs.

Now that we have a new fifty dollar bill to spend, let's go!

Saratoga Race Course -- Race 8 -- Curlin Stakes -- 1 1/8 miles on dirt -- post time 4:47 pm ET

http://realdirtymets.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/ettpxcsscnehbig.jpg

Back again to the day's feature, this time the Curlin stakes for the "B" team three-year-olds who aren't quite ready to tackle the top shelf sophomores that you'll see in the G2 Jim Dandy on Saturday (or in the G1 Haskell at Monmouth on Sunday).  The official conditions state that is for any three-year-old that hasn't won a graded stakes at a mile or further since New Year's Day.

This field looks to have quite a few runners who want the early lead, and PROUD STRIKE showed he can rally from off the pace from three-wide to clear the first-level allowance (okay, AOC) last time at Churchill.  Trainer Asmussen has gotten warm at the Spa, and he wasn't disgraced when facing the Louisiana group in the Spring Kentucky Derby preps.  Perhaps he needed the first start off the freshening going nine panels.  BAD HOMBRE is going two turns for the first time in this restricted stakes. A winner last time going a single-turn mile at Belmont, he's hit the top two in four straight starts since a failed experiment on the Gulfstream grass.  CERRO is a conditions fit, as he won a minor stakes last time at Pimlico.  But since it wasn't graded, he qualifies for this stakes.  Said minor stakes, the Canonero II, was at today's nine furlong distance at Pimlico.  The rub on him is he's one-way speed, and the front end could get very crowded.  Wasn't that far behind G3 winner General Election two back and three back did all the dirty work to set up an in-form classic winner-to-be in Orb.

Selections:

#5 PROUD STRIKE (3/1)

#3 BAD HOMBRE (6/1)

#6 CERRO (4/1)

Longshot: Only one horse has double digit morning lines in this field.  Well, if the above selector can play an Arlington shipper, we can recommend a Mountaineer shipper!   And #2 KEG PARTY (30/1) does have a chance going turf-to-dirt in this spot, and has a puncher's chance if Maragh takes back and makes one run.

Day 6 Wager: The goal is to topple the Darley-owned entry that was made the 5/2 morning line favorite.  Bernadini offspring aren't the most dependable in stakes and neither looked impressive on paper.  PROUD STRIKE appears on paper to be the lone closer, BAD HOMBRE could be player on the stretchout, and CERRO is a conditions fit as he won a listed stakes last out in Baltimore.  The straight win/place pools aren't going to yield much, so we'll take the three mentioned and play an exacta box.  We'll score if two out the aforementioned three crack the top two. So we want one of the following exactas: 3-5, 3-6, 5-3, 5-6, 6-3, or 6-5.  With two bucks left over, we'll play the top choice to win.

$6 Exacta box of BAD HOMBRE, PROUD STRIKE, CERRO, using #s 3,5, 6 ($48)

$2 to win on PROUD STRIKE ($2)

Scorecard:

  • Day 5 Investment: $50
  • Day 5 Return: $79.50
  • Total Return: $166.00
  • Total Investment: $250
  • Meet ROI Entering day 3: -33.60%
  • Meet Profit/Loss Entering Day 3:  $84.00 loss

Good luck!

Filed under: horse racing, Saratoga

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