In a partnership with Thorofan, we'll be offering Bankroll plays for each day of the Saratoga meet. Each day, we'll take fifty dollars ($50.00) and use it throughout the card and try to turn it into bigger money. The goal is simple: end the meet with more than we started. A scorecard will be maintained at the bottom of the post.
We remind that picks will be voided in two scenarios: 1) the selection (or part of it) scratches and the picks are not updated to reflect it and 2) the race changes surfaces. Saratoga is famous for its pop-up thunderstorms that deluge in an hour, go away, and leave an off-the-turf card in its wake.
If you're curious why we're doing "Bankroll Day 4" when the day covered is July 24--day five of the meet, an agreement wasn't in place for day 1. So we'll be a day behind.
Day 3 Recap: CORSAGE finished third in that turf allowance, not bad for the brain but bad for the wallet as the win and place wager goes in the loss column. A reminder that at Picks and Ponderings a "long shot to watch" is provided in many instances. Sometimes this bet (see Day 2) is used, sometimes not. Sometimes it doesn't hit, sometimes it does.
Now that we have a new fifty dollar bill to spend, let's go!
Saratoga Race Course -- Race 2 -- Broom Dance Stakes -- 1 1/8 miles on dirt -- post time 1:32 PM ET
It should be noted there's a Pick Six carryover of nearly a quarter million dollars for the Wednesday card. Playing it with fifty dollars is the equivalent of going into a gunfight with a peashooter.
Our bankroll play does not lie in the Pick Six, but instead is in the second race. Only six see the starter in this stakes restricted to those who haven't won a stakes since New Year's Day. For three-year-old fillies, it might lend a starter or two to the G1 Alabama. PROFETIZA projects as lone speed in this race. Brought to you by the owner/trainer team of Besilu Stables/Mott that gave you G1 Delaware Handicap winner Royal Delta, they get 'Delta's rider Mike Smith to give up a day of Del Mar (also because he's riding for these connections in day's feature, the G2 Lake George). PROFETIZA wired the field in her two wins, two back at Churchill (with Smith aboard) and last time at Belmont in a first level allowance. Figures are trending up, and we'll anticipate a gun-and-go ride. FLASH FORWARD was second in a restricted stakes last time out. As a two-year-old this one was chasing around better fillies like Unlimited Budget, but hasn't won since a closing effort at Gulfstream. MONTANA NATIVE is a two-time winner in this group (which is alot), and the form looks better if you discard the non-dirt races at Gulfstream and Keeneland.
#4 PROFETIZA (2/1)
#5 FLASH FORWARD (7/2)
#2 MONTANA NATIVE (3/1)
Longshot: #6 MAJESTIC MARQUET (6/1) has the most wins in the field (four), has won twice with C. Velasquez aboard, and was third last time in an open stakes. Drops in class today to this restricted stakes.
Day 4 Bankroll: PROFETIZA looks she'll be lone speed, and with no one on paper wanting the lead we'll use her as a win candidate. I think FLASH FORWARD can get a pressing/closing second in here off the stakes company she's kept, and think start three post layoff is when she shows her best. Also like the distance progression. The plan is to collect if PROFETIZA wins and doubly collect if it goes PROFETIZA-FLASH FORWARD. Try to turn lemons into lemonade.
---$20 exacta of PROFETIZA over FLASH FORWARD, 4-5. ($20)
---$5 exacta of FLASH FORWARD over PROFETIZA, 5-4 ($5)
---$20 to win, $5 to place on #4 PROFETIZA in Race 2. ($25)
- Day 3 Investment: $50
- Day 3 Return: $0.00
- Total Return: $86.50
- Total Investment: $150
- Meet ROI Entering day 3: -42.33%
- Meet Profit/Loss Entering Day 3: $63.50 loss