Hawthorne Showvivor (Fall) Day 3

Day 2 Recap: We missed the  win by a short margin, but FRIENDIAN got second place in the second race at Hawthorne in the second race. A win would have been nice, but a second is good enough to make it to the third day of Hawthorne Showvivor. 330 contests remain in the contest out of nearly 2,400 players.

All of Sunday's races are off the turf, so we'll avoid the races carded for the turf that will be switched to the main track. They could fall apart and become scratch-heavy (see: the sixth race). The focus will be on races made for the dirt, and for a sloppy track. Hawthorne took a lot of rain on Sat5urday, so we anticipate a wet track.

Hawthorne Race Course -- Race 3 -- $10,000 "B" Claimer -- 1 1/16 miles on dirt -- post time 3:10 pm CT

Time for a "B" claimer, featuring N3L four-year-olds  and three-year-olds that could have won any number of races. However, everyone here is eligible for the N3L condition.

At the short Hawthorne meet, trainer Danny Miller has four money finishes in seven starts. Rider E.T. Baird has five money finishes in twelve starts. That team is six of eight in the money together. They are small sample sizes, however. On AWESOMO, he's three of six in the money with all the starts over at Arlington. Slight class rise from the $7,500 N3L group at Arlington to today's $10,000 gang.Seems like a decent proposition to hit the board. The trump card is the pedigree. Being by Awesome Again and with Mr. Prospector as the damsire, he should handle the mud that's expected tomorrow.   Let's take him. OKLAHOMA HERO has the advantage of having a work over the Hawthorne track (Oct. 2, 4 furlongs, :49 4/5). He's also won before, albeit in February in Texas, over a wet track. While his best figures were on turf and polytrack last out and two back at Arlington, they were paired together. Like the move from Ocampo to Perez.  BLUEGRASS JAM drops in claiming price (from $16,000 to $7,500), but not in terms of conditions--both are the second lowest level of N2Ls. Won four back at Churchill going two turns, and the trainer is an 18% winner when wheeling back with beaten favorites.

Selections:

#5 AWESOMO (9/2) <-- Showvivor Pick

#7 OKLAHOMA HERO (7/2)

#4 BLUEGRASS JAM (7/5)

Longshot: Three back, #2 ROMANTIC CHANNEL (10/1) scored a wire to wire triumph at Ellis Park going a mile. One mile races there (with their start on the turn) tend to be advantageous to inside posts, and he broke from post two. However, that Ellis race was off the turf and run on a sloppy main track. Add in that he's a three year old getting weight. Perhaps those last two factors negate the favorable inside post. The question is how long he hangs on, as he is the speed of the speed. But at 10/1, it may be worth posing.

Good luck!

Filed under: Hawthorne, horse racing

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