The Sunday March 18 card at Hawthorne will be conducted under summer-like weather and with a carryover. Its Pick 6 pool has a carryover of $39,671.
Now, the carryover pool came about from a succession of days where bettors did not correctly select the winners in the final six races. Each day there is not a successful winner, the carryover pool grows and grows. On some circuits, the pool can reach over $1M, and it has been as high as a quarter million here at Hawthorne. But because it's not the most popular wager on the menu, carryover pools rarely get large. Because it's money that's already in the pool, it represents a free money situation to bettors.
However, the caveat is that in order to have a realistic chance at the situation, you'll need a large investment. With a two dollar minimum and numerous combinations, a ticket of at least two hundred dollars will give you a fighting chance. Of course, pooling tickets (or creating a syndicate) may be a way to go. And you also get rewarded with a consolation ticket if you have 5 winners out of 6. You also get paid out if no one correctly hits six and you have the most winners (be it five or four or however many.)
I find the ~$40K carryover a bit small and the Hawthorne card a bit awful (read: short fields, bad horses, and short fields of bad horses) to play with. I'd rather wait until the Wednesday card, and strike then, only if the carryover has ballooned higher by then.
For today's card, let's try to go for a single. A horse you can use with a lot of strength, allowing you to go deeper in the others.
Hawthorne Race 8 -- Illinois Bred Maiden Special Weight -- 6 furlongs on dirt -- post time of 5:10 CT
One of the most successful and popular teams on the circuit (and the team that knocked me out of Hawthorne Showvivor) features trainer Chris Block and rider Eddie Perez. They have MARVELOUS MIA who goes second off the shelf and was second twice before at 35th/Laramie sprinting. We're sprinting again this afternoon and we've caught a pretty nondescript bunch. Team has three wins and two more more finishes in seven starts this meet, solid trainer stats across the board. She won't pay a lot to win, but she'll be a useful Pick 6 single. First time starter CHICA BONITA drew the rail today. Rider C. Roman has been quite successful this meet, the pedigree is solid (five starters, five winners), and she could be in the mix. Has an okay work at Hawthorne but has some good training works in Florida. TWIN POWER makes a lateral class move from open $25000 maiden claiming to this statebred maiden special weight, a 20% winning move. She's hit the board five times in eight career tries. I think she collects another minor award at this level, but she'd be a solid winner in $15000 maiden claiming down the road.
#2 MARVELOUS MIA (8/5)
#1 CHICA BONITA (6/1)
#5 TWIN POWER (3/1)
Longshot: I know that trainer F. Kirby hits rarely with first time starters (6% win rate on 223 starts). Not an issue when you've got an aggressive rider named I. Karlsson in an on-paper paceless affair. The Karlsson/Kirby team hit for 16% winners, steady works all spring, and as a three year old she gets to carry less weight. If you don't feel comfortable singling the two or wish to hedge, toss #7 LEFTY'S LEGACY (8/1) on to your pick six ticket.