It's not a foregone conclusion, as we sit now just under a year from the 2020 Presidential election that we'll have Elizabeth Warren taking on Donald Trump in the general election. Sure, she's the Democratic party front-runner right now, but typically the candidate in the out of power party at this point in the cycle doesn't always get the nomination.
Eventual 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney trailed Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and even Herman Cain during the fall of 2011. Hillary Clinton led the way in November of 2007, not future two term President Barack Obama. And a year before the 2004 election, the talk wasn't about John Kerry at all. Front-runners among the Dems back then included Howard Dean, Joe Lieberman and Wesley Clark.
So who could it be that leapfrogs Senator Warren? South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg seems to be the "sleeper pick" at this moment, but don't count out others in the field as of yet. According to TopBet.eu, "Mayor Pete" has the third best odds (+500) of landing the Democratic Party nomination, behind only Warren (-150) and Biden (+300). The odds then back, in descending order, Bernie Sanders, the field (any other candidate), Andrew Yang and Kamala Harris.
The narrative in the media has shifted from a battle of Warren vs Biden to the nomination is Warren's to lose. Perhaps the next shift will be to Buttigieg, but he has a lot of obstacles to overcome: age, inexperience, anti-Gay bigotry, especially so in the swing states.
Also, it's a rather massive step up from mayor of the fourth largest city in Indiana to POTUS. Although to be fair, South Bend, as a media market, is the same size as the nation of Iceland. Not to mention that the result in 2016 shattered a lot of conventions, including the idea of experience as a prerequisite.
It's going to be up to Buttigieg to make sure that can run as a progressive, a true, classic liberal, and not get caught up in the noise of the very hard left, the so-called "woke" crowd and the outrage mobs on Twitter. There's a lot of overlap in those three groups, and trying to appeal to them resulted in a misstep or two for Harris, who then saw her numbers drop in the polls.
That's a shame because she really projects strength, has the credibility that could appeal to moderates and has the experience of serving in numerous past high profile positions.
As for Sanders, unfortunately for him, and the Bernie Bros. his chance/moment may have passed. It was unfairly taken away from him, but it's tool late to do anything about that. Of course, if history is any indicator, we're due for a couple more plot twists between now and Election Day, and past elections have shown us that being on top right now doesn't guarantee anything in the end when it actually counts.
Paul M. Banks runs The Sports Bank.net, which is partnered with News Now. Banks, the author of “No, I Can’t Get You Free Tickets: Lessons Learned From a Life in the Sports Media Industry," regularly appears on WGN CLTV and co-hosts the "Let's Get Weird, Sports" podcast on SB Nation.
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Filed under: Democrats