2017 Golden Globe Predictions

2017 Golden Globe Predictions

Awards season is here and first up, that are televised anyway, are the Golden Globes. The largely inconsequential Golden Globes. But, while these awards have very little to do with the rest of awards season, they do tend to be a lot of fun thanks to the colliding worlds of TV and film and the sheer insanity of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association's choices. The only real prediction I have any confidence in is that the HFPA will be completely unpredictable. And I wouldn't want them any other way.

Note: As always, when I say “Will Win” I am basing it on the current odds and buzz and when I say “Should Win” I am basing it on my own personal and deeply biased opinion.

Film

Best Picture, Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

What Should Win: Moonlight
What Will Win: Manchester by the Sea

So far this awards season Manchester and Moonlight have taken turns as the frontrunner. Moonlight might seem like the more obvious pick… which is why I would go with Manchester on this one. Good news is, either way a deserving film will win.

Best Picture, Comedy or Musical

20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

What Should Win: La La Land
What Will Win: La La Land

Separated from its usual rivals, there’s really no way La La Land can lose this category.

Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Who Should Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

But this is where La La Land proves it could beat all the drama nominees as well. It is an exquisite film and Damien Chazelle directed the hell out of it.

Best Actor, Drama
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Who Should Win: Casey Affleck
Who Will Win: Casey Affleck

Best Actress, Drama
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Who Will Win: Isabelle Huppert

I haven’t seen enough of these films to really speak to who should win (and by that I mostly mean I haven’t seen Jackie yet), but despite all the buzz Natalie Portman is receiving, the HFPA loves to give awards to foreign actors and Isabelle Huppert has enough of her own buzz to win this round.

Best Actor, Comedy
Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Who Should Win: Colin Farrell
Who Will Win: Ryan Gosling

Ryan Gosling is amazing and deserves every bit of this award, but The Lobster was so freaking good and is largely getting ignored. I wouldn’t be mad if this is the recognition it got.

Best Actress, Comedy
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don't Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Who Should Win: Emma Stone
Who Will Win: Emma Stone

In a career littered with great performances, Emma Stone’s performance in La La Land is still her best by far. Her final song of the film is reason enough to fill up a wheelbarrow with awards for her. But, since in every other race she’ll be up against more “dramatic” performances, this is probably the only one she’ll actually get.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor Johsnon, Nocturnal Animals

Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Who Will Win: Viola Davis

Best Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water

Who Should Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Who Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

As much as I love La La Land and will champion it long after this awards season is forgotten, I can’t pretend that Manchester by the Sea isn’t a near perfect screenplay. The writing is tight, the pacing is perfect and the dialogue is sharp.

Best Original Score
Moonlight
La La Land
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures

What Should Win: La La Land
What Will Win: La La Land

It’s a musical. It’d be pretty embarrassing if it didn’t win the music awards.

Best Original Song
“Can't Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“Faith,” Sing
“Gold,” Gold
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

What Should Win: “City of Stars,” La La Land
What Will Win: “City of Stars,” La La Land

Ditto.

Best Animated Feature Film
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia

What Should Win: Moana
What Will Win: Zootopia

Zootopia may be a more fun movie going experience, but Moana is the better movie. Of course, knowing the HFPA, they’ll probably go with My Life as a Zucchini.

Best Foreign Language Film
Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

What Will Win: Elle

 

TV

Best TV Series, Drama
The Crown
Game of Thrones
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld

What Should Win: Game of Thrones
What Will Win: The Crown

Game of Thrones had its best season last year, but if there’s two things the HFPA loves it’s a new show and anything remotely European. Nothing else stands a chance.

Best TV Series, Comedy/Musical
Atlanta
Blackish
Mozart in the Jungle
Transparent
Veep

What Should Win: Atlanta
What Will Win: Atlanta

It’s a new show and its more out there tendencies are sure to appeal to the HFPA’s tastes.

Best TV Miniseries or Movie
American Crime
The Dresser
The Night Manager
The Night Of
The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

What Should Win: The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
What Will Win: The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

I have my doubts about how much American Crime Story will appeal to non-American voters because I’m not sure how a case so steeped in American culture carries over to other countries. But, I don’t know who else they would give it to. The Night Of? Maybe.

Best Actor, Drama
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Billy Bob Thornton, Goliath

Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk
Who Will Win: Rami Malek

Remember when this category had people like Jon Hamm, Bryan Cranston and Kevin Spacey battling it out? Those were more difficult days, but I’m not complaining when a less strong best actor category means a much stronger best actress category.

Best Actress, Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Keri Russell, The Americans
Winona Ryder, Stranger Things
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

Who Should Win: Evan Rachel Wood
Who Will Win: Claire Foy

Evan Rachel Wood turned in the performance of her life, but she wasn’t playing European royalty so…

Best Actor, Comedy
Anthony Anderson, Blackish
Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Nick Nolte, Graves
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Who Should Win: Donald Glover
Who Will Win: Donald Glover

Best Actress, Comedy
Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Sarah Jessica Parker, Divorce
Issa Rae, Insecure
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Tracee Ellis Ross, Blackish

Who Should Win: Rachel Bloom
Who Will Win: Issa Rae

I just want Rachel Bloom to win everything!! But Issa Rae is cool, too, I guess.

Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, The People vs. O.J. Simpson
Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
John Lithgow, The Crown
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
John Travolta, The People vs. O.J. Simpson

Who Should Win: Sterling K. Brown
Who Will Win: John Lithgow

Famous English leader syndrome strikes again!

Best Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman, The Night Manager
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Thandie Newton, Westworld

Who Should Win: Thandie Newton
Who Will Win: Thandie Newton

Best Actor, Mini-Series or TV Movie
Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
Bryan Cranston, All the Way
Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager
John Turturro, The Night Of
Courtney B. Vance, The People vs. O.J. Simpson

Who Should Win: Courtney B. Vance
Who Will Win: Courtney B. Vance

Even Tom Hiddleston isn’t British enough to beat out Courtney B. Vance’s performance.

Best Actress, Mini-Series or TV Movie
Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Riley Keough, The Girlfriend Experience
Sarah Paulson, The People vs. O.J. Simpson
Charlotte Rampling, London Spy
Kerry Washington, Confirmation

Who Should Win: Riley Keough
Who Will Win: Charlotte Rampling

Maybe Sarah Paulson will walk away with this award as well, but Charlotte has the foreign edge and Riley is astounding. Plus, The Girlfriend Experience could use a little extra buzz.

*The Golden Globes will air Sunday, January 8th at 8/7c on NBC.

Filed under: Awards

Tags: Film, Golden Globes, TV

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