Horny Notes: April 15, 2011 -- Previewing the Bulls-Pacers is Boring, Bulls Immense Favs, Props to Bogans

Horny Notes: April 15, 2011 -- Previewing the Bulls-Pacers is Boring, Bulls Immense Favs, Props to Bogans

Please accept that it's a great team against a terrible team. The objective needs to be kicking them in the nuts, shoving them down, and spraying dust on them while moving on to the second round.

I'm sorry, but I can't bring myself to give you in-depth previews of the Bulls-Pacers series, so -- thankfully -- others have:

  • Sebastian Pruiti went more in-depth with the numbers, along with the Xs & Os, than I could. Best I could do was write my thoughts on his points.
  • The Bulls are bunch of nice people, but they're downright nasty on the court and get away with it. According to Basketball-Reference, the Bulls were tied with the Celtics for the best defense in the NBA with a 100.3 rating, while only committing 1,638 fouls. In the post-handcheck era, a team's posted a DRtg of 101 or better without committing 1,650 fouls only five other times -- three were the Spurs (2001, '02, and '07), once by the 2001 East champion 76ers, and once by the Kings in 2001. Of those six, the 2011 Bulls are by far the best defensive rebounding team, holding opponents to a 23.8 offensive rebounding rate.

    The physicality of Joakim Noah, Keith Bogans, Ronnie Brewer, and Kurt Thomas have most notably consistently gotten under the skins of opponents all season. They can score on the Bulls, can't get rebounds, and aren't drawing the fouls to make up for these deficiencies. "Pacers coach Frank Vogel has tried to simulate playoff physicality in practice by allowing his 'red' team of James Posey, Solomon Jones, T.J. Ford, Lance Stephenson, Dahntay Jones and whoever else takes a turn with the unit to try to create some mayhem," Mark Monteith reported Thursday (ESPNChicago.com).

  • The Bulls are 94.6% or 99.3% chance of winning the series, depending on full season numbers or those post-trade deadline (BBR); or 96%, based on log5 analysis (Tom Ziller, SBNation.com). The question isn't about how the Bulls or Pacers win this series, but how the Bulls don't hurt their chances at winning in the second round with their effort in the first. BBR put the chances of the Bulls winning in four or five games at 67.3% or 88.3%.

    These post-deadline numbers are despite the Pacers' also great improvements since Jan. 30 with Vogel at the helm. The improvement in the Pacers' PPG is somewhat legit, but more of a naked emperor. Their efficiency numbers have had no serious boost; only their pace (possessions per game) and offensive rebounding have (Tim Donahue, 8 Points, 9 Seconds). The other team gets more possessions, too, and Indy's showed no signs of actually stopping those teams from scoring more often. Add in that offensive board crashing hinders that team's capability of resetting their defense.

  • As long as Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer don't flat-out suck, their impact is almost marginal in that nothing needs to be elevated in their games. Coach Nick, along with most, says Luol Deng is the "X-factor." Rose and Boozer's offense are what they are and will be along the lines of their talent and production over the course of the season, if not better. The team has an 11-man rotation with one defensive liability, Boozer -- meaning there are always four adequate helpers on the floor to provide extra help to that player.

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