Bogans' Big Night Forces Notice of Hot Shooting Most of the Season

Bogans' Big Night Forces Notice of Hot Shooting Most of the Season
Keith Bogans' big night against the Wizards wasn't a fluke; it was consistent with his trends since the early-to-mid-December.
bogans rose.jpg

On Feb. 15, while the rotisserie droolers were drolling nonsense about Keith Bogans' per game averages, I highlighted that he was one of the most efficient shooters on the Bulls and trending upward.

His "scoring has been sparse" in quantity, as Jon Greenburg noted at, and his bricks have been "plentiful," if you want to interpret the information in the laziest, most trite manner you can. Voluntary ignorance of Bogans' high frequency of making 3s doesn't make those baskets disappear and the numbers don't lie when they tell us that Bogans scores more points per shot attempt over almost the last three months than anyone could seriously ask of any shooting guard in a rotation.
Tuesday, he scored a season-high 17 points on 5-for-10 shooting -- all 3s -- and when we decide to not be ignorant, we see that that high percentage was not a fluke:
bogans 3s 3162011.JPG

stats through games played on 3/15/2011

The droolers don't bother him because he knows his job, focuses on that, and doing it well, Fred Mitchell reported Tuesday at the Chicago Tribune
"It doesn't frustrate me at all, ... I'm being talked about," Bogans said with a smile after he scored a season-high 17 points in nearly 29 minutes Tuesday night during the Bulls' 98-79 victory over the Wizards.
"I've been around long enough (seven-year veteran). You know, people are going to say things. But I am here for my team; I want to win. I'm not worried about individual stuff. I've had individual things and my goal is to win a championship."
"My job on this team is to defend first," he said. "I think people get caught up in (saying) I am a shooting guard, and I am not shooting the ball. But when you have Derrick (Rose), Luol (Deng) and Carlos (Boozer) taking the bulk of the shots ... I mean, I'm just going to get us going defensively. When my shot is there I will take it. I know my role on this team."
"I got more looks, I played more minutes and my teammates did a good job of finding me when we executed our offense," Bogans said. "I just took my shot when it was there. I didn't do anything differently than I normally do. I just played a little bit more and got more looks."
To put his monthly eFG% in perspective, Kyle Korver leads the team at .553 on the season and Bogans is next on that list, leading all starters, with Carlos Boozer's .524 coming in third. As for his monthly 3P%, Korver leads the team on the season at .430 with C.J. Watson's .395 in second, and Bogans' .373 in third.
There's no reason to believe Bogans can't hit 40% of his 3s and have an outstanding eFG% around .600 from now through the playoffs. If anything, Bulls fans should want Bogans taking better advantage of his open looks and for his teammates to feed him the ball more often in those situations.
And, for the record, I was one of those ignorant droolers last month. That's what sparked my investigation of the data in February. For those fixated on his low volume of minutes coming with Rose, Boozer, and Deng even after reading my post from last month, I have no help for you. I can only hope you operate your computer while wearing a helmet.
Advanced Stats via Basketball-Reference.

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  • Well, I was a "drooler", and I guess you can still call me one. Because, while I'll gladly give Bogans credit for improving his performance from the perimeter, he's still not a very good basketball player.

    His defense is somewhat overrated, and the best thing you can hope for on a given day is a couple threes made. I don't see why I'm a "drooler" if I want(ed) an upgrade at that position.

    The one thing his recent play has done, is proven that the front office made the right call in not overreacting and giving up a frontcourt piece for a player that may only be a minor upgrade.

    With all that being said, since he'll be our starting two guard for the rest of the year, I'll cheer my ass off for him, and hope he keeps this up. But if he's starting for this team next year, I think I'll light myself on fire.

  • In reply to Juiceboxjerry:

    At the right price, I wanted an upgrade, too. Trading a big for Courtney Lee or a less efficient Mayo would've created a liability not negated by whatever asset gained. In "drooler," I refer to those jumping to the conclusion that Bogans is a liability. Frankly, it's the job of major media columnists and talk radio voices to set the record straight, instead of pander to the meme. I largely blame the vastly exaggerated conclusions on them.

  • In reply to LittleAlex:

    It's actually pretty funny how that same lazy journalism/media/fandom is effecting two players in very different ways. The same people saying Bogans is the worst shooter ever, are the ones behind the "Rose is a great shooter now" phenomenon. Meanwhile, he's been pretty bad for a while now, for the most part.

  • In reply to Juiceboxjerry:

    Rose is 39% since the break, but his incredible improvement at the line (89% in '11) has helped shadow it.

    I think Bogans is a nice piece to have on the team and is showing what was always the case--he's a pretty nice 3-point shooter. The problem is he gets exposed playing as many minutes as he has this year. Give him roughly 8-10 a game and he can be helpful.

  • In reply to Juiceboxjerry:

    I agree with your comments on Bogans. Though personally I think he's a bit wilfull/manipulative, still egos often equal success. That's why I liked him coming in because he had hit volume threes at a decent percentage before. One year 400 3ptA's. But at the same time I was dissapointed that after that excellent game against Utah C.J. was kept to irrelevant single digit minutes the next game. Very dissapointed. I know the role thing, but we need to cultivate some offensive sources come playoff time. And even if he plays/shoots well overall many games/nights that will not be Keith Boagns.

  • In reply to MarkNorman:

    At the risk of being trite, cultivating offensive sources at the two-guard's a bit of a recipe for disaster. The end result with Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, and Kyle Korver already in the rotation is too many long twos, falling too dependent on dribbling to move the ball inside, and not enough offense in the post. The only offense scheme for that position in a backcourt with Rose is a knock-down 3-pt shooter.

    C.J.'s too small. Against teams where you can get away with smaller backcourts and make it tougher to move the ball (rare), the argument for more C.J. makes sense and we've usually gotten that.

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