Breeders Cup Saturday: My Bets and lessons from 2012 Analysis

Updated:  I finally looked over the card and got my exotics classifications done and a few bets formulated. Then tomorrow I'll watch the toteboard for some win bets and exactas.

Bets:

Race 4 $1 Pick 3: 1,4,6,10 / 1 / 4,5,8,11,12 = $20
Race 5 $1 Exacta Box: 1,2,3,7 = $12
Race 8 $1 Pick 3: 2,4,6,13,14 / 7 / 1,3,6,7 = $20
Race 9 $1 Exacta Box: 4,7,8,11 = $12

This was a betting structure I came up with this summer that intrigued me. It's a pick three with a single, and 4 horses in one race and 5 in the other, for a $20 ticket. Then to hedge my bet against my single losing, I make an exacta box in that race- including him- and three other horses.   And if I were to hit that exacta, it would figure to be a nice one since the favorite is out of it, thereby paying for losing pick 3 ($20).  It's possible our exacta wins AND we get our single home as well, which isn't all bad, though we'd likely lose a little bit on the exacta since a $1 exacta with a favorite on top is likely to pay less than $12. But cashing any kind of exacta, as my old man says, is better than a sharp stick in the eye.

------

I'll also include my rankings for exotics which I may use to make a few more multi-race wagers tomorrow. I'm not so sure I had very many clever ideas, but I at least corralled them by my favoritism. I wish the races with obvious singles were spread more evenly throughout the card. That ought to make for even bigger multirace payoffs, as the early p3 and p4s will have no free squares and with the late p4 seemingly having 3 singles, if any one of them loses it immediately derails a huge portion tickets and shoots prices up. It ought to be fun.

Race 4. Juvenile Fillies- A: 1,4,6   B: 7,9,10    C:2
Race 5. Fillies and Mare Turf- A: 1,2   B: 3,7
Race 6 Fillies and Mare Sprint- A: 5,12    B: 2,8,9     C:11
Race 7 Turf Sprint- A: 3,4,5,12     C: 14
Race 8 Juvenile- A: 2,6,13   B: 3,4,14    C: 9,12
Race 9 Turf- A: 7   B: 4,8,10   C: 9,11
Race 10 Sprint- A: 1,6,7,   B: 3,9
Race 11 Mile- A: 8   B: 5   C: 1,3,4
Race 12 Classic- A: 9    B: 5,6,7,8,10,12   C: 4

--------------------

I found my handicapping material from last year's Breeder's cup which consisted of the PPs and the clocker report. From this year's Racing Form, I had the charts of those races, and the Beyer pars for all of the BC races. So I went back and looked at last year's winner's statistics in a few categories: 1) their published works leading up to their victory, 2) How the average of their last 4 Beyers compared to the rest of their field, 3) How the average of their last 4 Beyers compares to their race's Beyer Par, and 4) How their M/L compared to their final odds. Without further doo-doo ado, here are my findings followed by me bets and some helpful links.

Before we light this candle, I wanted to note what I thought was the best info I found from my research: Favorites won 4 of the 14 races which is normal, but favorites were in the money in 12 of 14 races. So while the Breeder's Cup is always the best betting day of the year, but that doesn't mean favorites miss the board.

Here are the stats from the 2012 Breeder's Cup:

 

Race: Juvenile Sprint

Winner: Hightail

Beyer Speed Figure Par: N/A (this was the only race they were N/A)

Winning BSF: N/A

Last four BSF: 78, 69, 75, 72

BSF notes: His last out BSF was 2nd worst in the field

Recent Works: none published

Watchmaker pre-entries comments: Live Longshot comromised by traffic in Longchamp G1

Morning Lines to Final odds: 8-1 (t-5) : 15-1 (longest shot on the board)

 

Race:Juvenile Fillies Turf- first race where favorite didn't finish ITM.

Winner: Flotilla

Beyer Speed Figure Par: 86

Winning BSF: N/A

Last four RACING POST RATING  (Fr) : 104, 100, 87, 48

BSF notes : 2nd best RPR for a Euro in this race

Watchmaker pre-entries comments: Live longshot compromised by traffic in Longchamp G1

Morning Lines to Final odds: 8-1 (4th favorite) : 11-1 (6th)

 

Race:Juvenile Fillies

Winner : Beholder

Beyer Speed Figure Par : 94

Winning BSF : 95

Last four BSF :  108, 88, 75, 54

BSF notes : highest last-out BSF by 20+

Recent Works: none listed

Morning Lines to Final odds: 5/2 : 4-1

 

Race: Fillies and Mare Turf

Winner : Zagora

Beyer Speed Figure Par : 103

Winning BSF :99

Last four BSF : 99, 103, 94, 91

BSF notes : second-last out had highest BSF for 2012 and for career in field

Recent Works : 10/28 Belmont 4f in 49.59  "in company"

Morning Lines to Final odds : 8-1 (tied for 5th) : 9-1 (4th)

 

Winner: Ladies Classic

Beyer Speed Figure Par: 107

Winning BSF : 108

Last four BSF : 106, 99, 101, 110

BSF notes : Only horse with 3 100+ BSFs in last 4 races

Recent Works :

10/28 Bel 4f  48.93 "consvervative"

10/22 Bel 5f  59.45

10/13 Bel  4f    47.34

Morning Lines to Final odds :   9/5 :  7/5

 

Race: Juvenile Turf

Winner : George Vancouver

Beyer Speed Figure Par : 87

Winning BSF : 87

Last four Racing Post Rating: 113, 88, 113, 93

BSF notes : By a narrow margin, is the second best Euro

Recent Works : none

Watchmaker pre entry commentary: Hit board in Group 1's last two of 3, inconsistency is the issue.

Morning Lines to Final odds : 8-1 (3-way tie for 4th): 9-1 (4th)

 

 

Race: Filly and Mare Sprint- first favorite of 8 BC races to win

Winner: Groupie Doll

Beyer Speed Figure Par: 103

Winning BSF: 108

Last four BSF: 104, 95, 112, 100

BSF notes: Only horse with 2 or more BSF of 100+ in last four

Recent Works: 10/22   5f   Churchill  59.60    "Trainer elated"

Watchmaker pre entry commentary: "Dominated in last four with blinkers...hard to stop.."

Morning Lines to Final odds: 1-1 :  7/5

 

Race: Dirt Mile

Winner: Tapizar

Beyer Speed Figure Par: 107.5

Winning BSF: 104

Last four BSF: 71, 101, 97, 80

BSF notes: 4th best average (of last four) in field, 6th highest career BSF

Recent Works: none listed

Watchmaker pre entry commentary: Has had good days at SA but his last was too bad to ignore

Morning Lines to Final odds: 12-1 (3way tie for 5th) : 15-1 (

 

Race: Turf  Sprint

Winner: Mizdirection

Beyer Speed Figure Par: 101

Winning BSF: 98

Last four BSF: 84, 78, 96, 95

BSF notes: tied for 3rd lowest career best BSF in a field of 12. Tied for second-worst last-out BSF.

Recent Works: 10/27    5f (t)} 58.91  "Mizdirection but her speed on display"

Watchmaker pre entry commentary:  Off long layoff 2-for-2 over course. Maybe?

Morning Lines to Final odds: 20-1 (3rd worst of 14) : 7-1 (4th favorite)

 

Race: Juvenile- third favorite of 10 races to win in BC

Winner: Shanghai Bobby

Beyer Speed Figure Par: 98

Winning BSF: 82

Last four BSF: 94, 88, 93, 68

BSF notes: last out BSF was 4 higher than anyone else's career high.

Recent Works: 10/27    4f      49.24   "in company"

10/21     Bel    47.00

Watchmaker pre entry commentary: Been crushing opponents in NY and should route.  Obvious.

Morning Lines to Final odds: 2/1 (favorite) : 1.3/1 (favorite)

 

Race: Turf

Winner: Little Mike

Beyer Speed Figure Par: 111

Winning BSF: 105

Last four BSF: 54, 102, 96, 102

BSF notes: Only he and the favorite had two BSF of 100+ in last four

Recent Works: 10/27    SA   5f(t)    1:101.76

Watchmaker pre entry commentary:mile is his first choice all wins this year came with easy early leads

Morning Lines to Final odds: 12-1 (3way tied for 6th in 12 horse field) : 17-1 (6th)

 

Race: Sprint

Winner: Trinniberg

Beyer Speed Figure Par: 113

Winning BSF: 108

Last four BSF: 105, 85, 100, 106

BSF notes: most 105+ BSF in last four

Recent Works:  10/27   SA   4f     47.40   "Trinniberg's speed harnessed"

Watchmaker pre entry commentary: Stakes wins came with easy lead, none here.

Morning Lines to Final odds: 15-1 (tied for 10th in field of 14) : 14-1 (6th)

 

Race: Mile

Winner: Wise Dan

Beyer Speed Figure Par: 110

Winning BSF: 107

Last four BSF: 105, 108, 109, 100

BSF notes: only with all four of last four over 100

Recent Works:  10/20  Kee   5f    1:00.40      final prep

Watchmaker pre entry commentary: Has dominated since switching back to turf three starts ago; tough to beat

Morning Lines to Final odds: 9-5 : 1.8/1

 

Race: Classic- the second race out of 14 where the favorite failed to finish ITM

Winner: For Larned

Beyer Speed Figure Par: 115

Winning BSF: 117

Last four BSF: 101, 110, 108, 80

BSF notes:  3rd best average of last four

Recent Works:  10/28   CD    5f    1:00.40

Watchmaker pre entry commentary: Will forgive last, his Whitney was strong. Big rebound threat.

Morning Lines to Final odds: 5-1 (tied for second) : 9-1 (4th)

 

 

Speed bias on main track

- TimeformUsBlog Live Long Shots  They like Rosalind in Saturday's Juvenile Fillies and Last Gunfighter in the Classic. Click the link to find out way.

- HorseRacingNation Buzz Horses (their order, not mine). Of their 10 I figured I'd profile a few of them who I'll be using Saturday.

#10. Dank from the Fillies and Mare Turf. She won the Beverley D. here at Arlington (reply on the site linked) in smashing fashion last time out and is the 5/2 morning line favorite.

#8. Havana  in the Juvenile. The apparent talent disparity between Havana and the next best horse in this race seems to be bigger than that same metric in any other race on Saturday. If it weren't drawing the 13 post in a two-turn race, He'd be 9/5. It's always fun to watch a big favorite compete in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and I can't wait.

#3 The Fugue in the Turf. Another one of my favorite racing moments in horse racing will transpire in this race: when a bossy filly takes on the boys.

- Horse Racing Nation's staff picks for the entire Breeder's Cup card

 

 

Leave a comment