Two Betting Anomalies at the Breeders' Cup Saturday, and Other Musings

Two Betting Anomalies at the Breeders' Cup Saturday, and Other Musings

Pictured: Stephanie's Kitten winning the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.  She raced her first career race  at Arlington Park on July 9th, 2011 

After noticing the staggering payouts for the last two Daily Doubles ($1,181 and $2,535) at the Breeders' Cup on Saturday, I decided to crunch some numbers- two sets of numbers in fact.

1) Firstly and less surprising, I found that if you bet $1 on every horse to win on Saturday, you would have profited by $68; winning a total $172 on $104 bet.

I've heard of that happening before but it still really impresses me.

Chantal Sutherland tweeted this picture of her face while aboard Game on Dude as she sees her ex-boyfriend Mike Smith heart-breakingly pass her aboard Drosselmeyer just yards in front of the wire in the Breeder's Cup Classic.

2) What was more surprising to me was that if you bet every single combination for every single Breeders' Cup Daily Double, you would STILL have turned a profit.  See this graph below I did to the best of my non-quant ability.

For example, we'll take a look at the Breeders' Cup Mile as seen on my embedded  table (also viewable here). In order to win that Daily Double, you'd have to have the winner of the Mile (Court Vision) along with the winner of the previous race (Hansen). There were 13 runners in each of the two races, and with 13 x 13 giving us a total of 169  possible winning combinations (as shown in cell F3), so betting all of them would cost us $169. The payoff for the Court Vision with Hansen Daily Double paid, $591 (cell E3), for a profit of $422 (cell G3).

In this bet-all-combinations- scenario, only three Daily Doubles would have resulted in profit- the aforementioned Mile, The Classic and Juvenile Turf.  But they were such windfalls with profits of, $422, $1,111.50 and $594 (respectively) that they dwarfed the losses on the other five races, which were between only  $20.10 and $93.30.

Totaling it all up, I found that it would cost you $1,055 dollars to be bet on every single combination in every Breeders' Cup to Breeders' Cup race Daily Double on Saturday. Total money you woulda won doing that? $2,924.70. Nearly tripling your investment.

I crunched the numbers myself, so if anyone reading this wants to independently confirm my math, I'd appreciate it.

You can read about this picture of Stephanie's Kitten at the bottom of the article

3) Another thing I learned from this Breeders' Cup was the absolute necessity of good workout reporting. I printed off  Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch's clocker reports from 11/3 and 11/2 and studied them carefully because I knew they'd be important.  I was right.

Presciently, Welsch watched and was wise to be wowed by winners in-waiting like Drosselmeyer ($31.60), Amazombie ($17.80), Hansen ($16.20), Stephanie's Kitten ($14.20), My Miss Aurelia ($6.20), and wisely GUSHED about Royal Delta ($6.40).

To be sure, he also didn't guarantee any wins and he certainly praised the works of several horses who would go on to get beat in their Breeders' Cup races.  But he and fellow workout watchers were the only people to mention a few of the prices above. I'm gonna start paying a lot more attention to workouts and guys like Mike Welsch.

4) It's one of my 5 or 6 favorite days of the whole year. It's the best sporting event in America and I love it.

*About the picture above: Pictured is Stephanie's Kitten on 7/9 at Arlington Park. This was before her very first race and she finished third.  On Friday Stephanie's Kitten won the $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

I know this is Stephanie's Kitten in the photo because I took this picture myself for my friend Stef (different spelling, I know) while I was in the paddock for the first time as a member of the media. And the white blaze on her face kinda gives it away too.

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