This article kind of piggybacks over my last one which can be seen here.
I will be opening my wallet on Saturday in an attempt to win the Pick 4 at Arlington, starting with the 7th race- The Hatoof, then the Secretariat, The Beverly D. and the Arlington Million. Admittedly, I haven't look too closely at the Hatoof and plan to do some more research on my train ride to Arlington tomorrow, but I know two horses I will be using.
Below is my breakdown for how I am playing the pick 4. My "A Horses" are the horses I think are most likely to win, B horses I am less confident in, and C horses even less so. I will then bet them as groups in varying combinations: One ticket may be all my A horses so it would like A/A/A/A or 1/2,3/1,6/5,7, costing $8 for a $1 bet. Another could be CBAC, or any combination. Because the fields are so deeply and talent-laden, I will be using a lot of horses on my tickets. I'm trying to cast a wide net and hope a longshot or two can win for me.
Race # A B C
7: 1 6
8: 2, 3 7, 9 1
9: 1, 6 3, 7 8, 9, 11
10: 5,7 8 4,9
Race #7 The Hatoof
I liked the favorite, Race to Urga the #1 horse and think he may simply be more talented than the field. I will also be using the horse that Arlington Park oddsmaker Joe Kristufek called, "a COMPLETE wild card". He is yet to race in 2011, but had a very classy 2010 and had a few a nice workouts at Arlington recently.
Race #8 the Secretariat
Treasure Beach (#3) will cetainly go off as the favorite and rightfully so. However, Ziyarid (#2) will be a much better price and is expected to fire a big race at 10-1 on the morning line to Treasure Beach's 2-1. My B and C horses don't particularly excite me, but I will be still be using them defensively.
Race #9 The Beverly D.
The toteboard for the 22nd running of the Beverly D. will be dominated by two horses- Stacelita(#1) and River Jetez (#6) and both are expected to be at odds of 3-1 or lower by post time. I can't decide between the two, so I won't. Even with the two big favorites, this is a very deep race and I will be watching the toteboard and playing accordingly.
Race #10 The Arlington Million
Cape Blanco looks awfully bossed-up, but is by no means a lock. I will be interested to see how Gio Ponti fares tomorrow on a track he loves in his rematch with Cape Blanco, but this race offers much more betting appeal than just those two. Mission Approved has a chance to wire the field like The Tin Manin 2006 and Spirit One in 2008. Zack Hall certainly has the right to run a good race and Wigmore Hall figures to be flying late.
On Saturday Arlington Park will feature the best day of horse racing on the planet and I cannot wait to bet it and watch it live.