...One More Trade Thought: Could Marmol Be Moved?

I thought I had covered most of the potential movers in my last post about Cub trade ideas, but one guy in particular got a lot of buzz in the comments, so I thought I'd give him his own post. Since humans usually read article titles before they read the body text, you know who I'm talking about: could the Cubs closer be traded soon?

When I made my first pass at identifying potential trade candidates, I dismissed Carlos Marmol for two reasons: one, the Cubs just signed him to a long-term deal, and two, that deal pays him a relatively great deal of money in 2012 and 2013. 
If the Cubs were even thinking about dealing Marmol, why would they sign him for three years instead of one? The move almost automatically blocks out small-market teams from being interested in acquiring him. Then again, Marmol will be paid considerably less over the next three seasons than will Rafael Soriano, although how informative an exercise is it to compare player salaries to what the Yankees are making?
Having said all that, let's talk about the Yankees a little bit more. The aforementioned Soriano is expected to be out another several weeks with a bad elbow, and despite popular belief Mariano Rivera is not actually ageless, and might soon retire. If Soriano continues to be ineffective in his return from the DL, and Rivera decides to walk away at the end of this season, might we have ourselves a fit?
That's probably the only major market team that could have serious closer issues in the near future, right?  

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  • I wrote about why this makes sense in my own blog yesterday...

    http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/cubs-den/2011/06/should-the-cubs-trade-marmol.html

    as well as in your comments section. Frankly I'm surprised it hasn't been mentioned before. I don't think his contract is too big an issue because 1) It averages about $8.4M over the next couple of years, so it isn't crippling and 2)Unlike other trade possibilities, Marmol is still productive and in the prime of his career. It's not like the other guys where they are either not very productive or not in their prime -- or both. Marmol is getting paid what a good closer should be paid -- if anything, he's underpaid when you look around the league.

    The bottom line is that Marmol can bring legitimate, near-ready major-league talent back and there is no other trade candidate on this team that could do that-- with the possible exception of Sean Marshall.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    He's certainly not overpaid, but not every team in the league can afford to pay its closer $10MM, which is what Marmol is owed in 2013. Who are you thinking would want to deal for him? Also averaging his contract out is a misleading exercise, because he makes much more in years two and three than he does in 2011.

    I would also argue (as I did in the comments of that other post) that Soto fits the mold of "player in his prime that could net talent in a trade." But the real question is, how much do you want to sell? Shouldn't the Cubs $120 million payroll

  • In reply to ajwalsh08:

    Like you, I mentioned the Yankees as the best chance...a retiring closer, they've failed at trying to groom a replacement (Joba) and buy one (Soriano)...Marmol is Dominican...they'd love him in NY. Phillies, maybe...maybe the White Sox if Santos recent struggles are indicative of their usual closer nightmares. Red Sox are an outside possibility if Papelbon continues to suck and if they think Bard isn't ready to take over yet.

    I'd only trade Soto if we could get a lot back for him, which is doubtful. I wouldn't want an even trade, I'd want to flat out win the trade. Otherwise I'd keep him. He's still relatively young, cheap, is a good all-around catcher -- and unlike most Cubs, he'll actually take a walk once in a while. He's more of a piece to build around than Marmol. The Cubs have 3 good closer prospects in Carpenter, Dolis, and Tony Zych -- Cashner, maybe, if his arm doesn't hold up. Marmol is much more replaceable than Soto would be.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    The other thing I think everyone should consider is just how long is Marmol's window of dominance. When every save seems to take 20 pitches or more, the tread will wear a lot faster than it does most closers. I just can't see Marmol being dominant for a decade or even close when he's so erratic. There's an argument to be made that he could start to decline pretty quickly and steeply, and dealing him this season would be a case of selling at his highest point.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    A team doesn't necessarily trade a player like Marmol because they are looking to trade him. They would trade him because some other team wants him badly enough to give the Cubs something really good in return.
    You don't look to trade a good relatively young pitcher who is valuable to your team unless another team makes a great offer that will help your team.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    Hendry got ripped on ESPN today:
    http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/12347/forget-quade-look-at-hendrys-record

  • In reply to sep484:

    Wow, great link. They've won 90 games ONCE under Hendry! Gahhhhhh

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