No way will Trump be re-elected.
First, he may well resign before the end of his term as his popularity continues to drop and his legal issues intensify. In other words, he may follow the lead of Richard Nixon, although Trump makes Nixon look like a senior statesman and a real mensch in comparison.
Second, Trump is losing support among Republicans. Note that the U.S. House passed a resolution for the release of the Mueller report to the public when it is completed, with a vote of 420 for / 0 against / 4 present.
Third, his appointments serve his personal interests but are weak in terms of a broader political agenda. Nor does he develop strong legislation.
Fourth, he has no personal friends and has broad-brush painted all politicians as swamp dwellers regardless of party. Republicans who have been dissed by him must dread the prospect of campaigning with him by their side.
Fifth, his base is small. More important, they are not wealthy.
The Democrats totally misread the results of the November 2018 election
It was solely a referendum on Trump. Only the House of Representatives was up for a vote in every single district and the Dems won.
The Democrats are trying to convince themselves that the electorate supports every crazy idea that they can invent and that young and energized equates with “yep, we’re all on board.” Four years of college, free, for all! Turn the environment around in 10 years. Democratic socialism, because when you insert the word “democratic” in front of “socialism,” it’s a sure winner. (The exception may be healthcare if the Republicans can’t come up with a workable alternative.)
The 2020 Democratic convention is going to be a PR disaster. In an over-correction for controlling the outcome too tightly last time around, the craziest ideas will be given center stage.
Here comes the Great Etch-a-Sketch campaign of 2020
Mitt Romney tried it in 2012 and he lost. A campaign aide said Romney would erase the Etch-a-Sketch of his own primary campaign after he won the party nomination.
The same strategy will work like a charm for Kasich with one small but important switch: he is Etch-a-Sketching away Donald Trump, not his own stances. (And also, the Democrats will be torn apart by intraparty turmoil.)
Kasich is in the perfect spot to run this kind of campaign, having avoided support for Trump during his entire presidency and having quite pointedly skipped the Republican convention in Kasich’s home state of Ohio, where he was then serving as governor.
How convenient for Republican candidates to jump on board with him, claiming that Trump is far in the past and it’s so unfair and unethical for the Dems to keep dredging up ancient history.
Why not Pence?
Hah! No way can Pence win the nomination. Trump’s allure is his outspoken, colorful personality, revolting though he may be. Anyone who’s excited by Trump couldn’t possibly be a Pence fan. And what issues can he really champion other than religious ones?
The Dems are already screwing up the 2020 election
There is no idea too far out for them to campaign on. Apparently they believe America’s financial resources are without limit so the platform can be a long list of hugely expensive ideas that are out of touch with financial reality no matter how high we raise taxes on the wealthy.
I have a lot riding on this.
So far I have bets going with two people. They bet Trump will be the Republican nominee at the close of the party’s 2020 convention. I am betting he won’t. Each bet is for a slice of pizza.
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