Chicago Real Estate Market Update: 5 Year Low In Home Sales

Chicago Real Estate Market Update: 5 Year Low In Home Sales
Chicago home sales continue to lag recent years
but that doesn't mean the market is bad

February was the 4th month in a row that the Chicago real estate market had lower home sales than the previous year. In fact, if not for October home sales being just a smidgen higher than 2017, February would have been the 7th month in a row of lower sales. The February decline was 4.6% from last year. You can see from the lighter blue moving trendline in the graph below how sales have been trending down for several months now.

The "good" news though is that 4.6% is actually the smallest percentage loss in the last 4 months. However, looking at the graph below, with all Februaries flagged in red, you can also see that last month's sales were the lowest in 5 years.

In a couple of weeks the Illinois Association of Realtors will release their official numbers for February and I expect them to report a 7.4% decline. We disagree on methodologies.

Despite lower sales numbers I continue to assert that the Chicago real estate market is fundamentally strong as I explain below.

Chicago monthly home sales

Chicago home sales have recently been declining

Chicago Home Contract Activity

Looking at contracts written, which lead closings by 1 - 2 months, we see the same overall declining sales trend. Contracts written have been down year over year in 13 of the last 14 months, which is why that light blue trend line in the graph below is pointing downward. And February also registered the lowest activity in 7 years, with contracts down 11.9% from last year. It's just further evidence that home sales will be down again in March.

Chicago home sale contract activity

Home sale contract activity in Chicago has been flat to declining for a few years now.

Pending Home Sales

Pending home sales (the backlog of homes under contract waiting to close) also tells us a pretty bleak story. February has the lowest level since I've been tracking it and we were down by 482 units from last year. That means that some of February's sales came from raiding the closing bank which is not sustainable.

Chicago pending home sales

The backlog of homes likely to close in the next 1 - 2 months is skimpier than it has been historically

Distressed Home Sales

The percentage of home sales that were distressed continued its downward march, hitting a new low since I've been keeping track. Although we are getting really close to the bottom we managed to eke out another 2.4% decline from last year, dropping to 9.8%.

Chicago Distressed Home Sales

Since the housing crisis the percentage of home sales that are distressed has steadily declined.

Chicago Home Inventory

So much for all the sales related metrics. Inventory levels tell us a lot about the health of the real estate market and, so far, it looks pretty good. Sure, the inventory of attached homes (condos and townhomes) is rising - we've gone from a 3.0 month supply last year to a 3.4 month supply this year - but we are still at extraordinarily low levels. And the inventory of detached homes has actually declined by quite a bit. Last year we had a 4.0 month supply and now we are down to a 3.2 month supply. Notice that after years of attached inventory running lower than detached inventory they have finally switched places.

So inventory levels seem to suggest that maybe they are actually the cause of low sales - low supply vs. low demand.

Chicago inventory of homes for sale - months of supply

The months of supply of detached home inventory in Chicago continues to hit new lows while attached home inventory is rising.

Chicago Home Sale Market Times

Market times lend credibility to my theory that demand is still strong and that supply is constricting sales. Both attached and detached market times are at the lower end of the recent range though attached market times have recently risen. Detached homes that closed during February took only 107 days to go under contract compared to 110 days last year. Attached homes rose to 109 days from 98 days last year, which is consistent with the fact that inventories of this type of home has risen in the past year.

How long it takes to sell a home in Chicago

The time it takes to sell condos/ townhomes and single family homes has diverged recently

Our Web site has additional  Chicago real estate market data that we keep up to date that may be of interest to you.

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Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area's full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market, get an insider's view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry, or you just think he's the next Kurt Vonnegut you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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