With this morning's release of the Case Shiller Home Price Index for June Chicago just posted it's second month in a row of record home price increases - and I'm looking back to January 1987 when the Case Shiller index starts. Single family home prices were up 4.6% over May while condo prices were up 4.2%. If you look at the graph below you can see the beginning of a spike for the most recent months. In total single family home prices are up 10.5% from the recent low in March.
Single family home prices are at June 2001 levels while condo prices are at June 2000 levels. Compared to that red long term trend line single family prices are still 25.8% "low". Compared to the peak in home prices in September 2006 single family prices have fallen a total of 32.6% while condo prices have fallen by 33.6% since their peak in September 2007.
On a year over year basis 14 of the 20 metro areas tracked by Case Shiller are actually showing single family home price increases but Chicago was not one of them. We are still down by 1.7% but that number is coming down as you can see in the graph below. Condo prices are down 5.1% in the last year.
Commenting on the national home price picture David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that "We seem to be witnessing exactly what we needed for a sustained recovery; monthly increases coupled with improving annual rates of change. The market may have finally turned around....We are aware that we are in the middle of a seasonal buying period, but the combined positive news coming from both monthly and annual rates of change in home prices bode well for the housing market.”
I'll become just as enthusiastic once I see Chicago turn positive on a year over year basis but, given that I recently bought a house, I'm very encouraged.