"With All The Foreclosures And Short Sales Why Can't I Find A Deal?"

You hear this question all the time. It's a common refrain on Crib Chatter as well. Many people looking to buy a home in Chicago have heard about all the short sales and foreclosures on the market. In fact, right around 50% of all Chicago recent home sales have been distressed - either short sales or foreclosures. So it's understandable that people are perplexed when they can't find these bargains themselves.

Intuitively a lot of people understand the answer: the "deals" are in the fringe areas and at the lower price points. The geographic distribution of short sales and foreclosures in Chicago is pretty well understood but I don't believe I've seen any analysis of how the distressed properties are distributed by price point. So I finally came up with the graph below that shows, by price point, what percent of recent Chicago home sales are distressed. For the technically inclined, it's based upon a moving average of 100 home sales ordered by sales price.

This graph shows, rather dramatically, that below $100,000 right around 90% of all sales in March were distressed. By the time you get to a $300,000 price point that percentage drops to the upper 20s and by the time you get to $400,000 you're looking at "only" 10%. And if you're reading this blog or hanging out on Cribchatter chances are you're shopping above $200,000. If you've been asking yourself this question here's your answer.

Chicago short sales and foreclosures by price

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    Gary Lucido

    After 20 years in the corporate world and running an Internet company, Gary started Lucid Realty with his partner, Sari. The company provides full service, while discounting commissions for sellers and giving buyers rebates.

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