Number of illegal aliens in U.S. double the estimated 11 million

The number of illegal aliens (a.k.a. undocumented immigrants) could be double the widely accepted estimate of 11.3 million, according to a Yale University study.

It's not some "anti-immigrant," pro-Trump, right-wing fanatic that has updated the estimate to 22.1 million. This is an explosive study that could mean that estimates of what illegal immigration is costing American taxpayers may be widely understated. Higher costs for welfare, border enforcement, education and, yes, in crime.

According to the study's abstract:

We apply standard demographic principles of inflows and outflows to estimate the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States, using the best available data, including some that have only recently become available....

Our conservative estimate is 16.7 million for 2016, nearly fifty percent higher than the most prominent current estimate of 11.3 million, which is based on survey data and thus different sources and methods. The mean estimate based on our simulation analysis is 22.1 million, essentially double the current widely accepted estimate. Our model predicts a similar trajectory of growth in the number of undocumented immigrants over the years of our analysis, but at a higher level....

Our results, while based on a number of assumptions and uncertainties, could help frame debates about policies whose consequences depend on the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States.

Indeed.

From the study:

Fig 2. The current widely accepted estimate of the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. (in Blue); together with our conservative estimate (in Red); and the mean value we estimate for each year (in Black). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201193.g002

Fig 2. The current widely accepted estimate of the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. (in Blue); together with our conservative estimate (in Red); and the mean value we estimate for each year (in Black).
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201193.g002

www.dennisbyrne.net

My historical novel: Madness: The War of 1812

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