Obamacare to increase the number of uninsured

Despite promises that it would cut deeply into the 40- or 50-million (the number always fluctuated) Americans uncovered by health insurance, one study now predicts that Obamacare (misnamed the Affordable Care Act) would increase the number of uninsured by about 10 percent more than t0day.

Said Stephen T. Parente in a Wall St. Journal opinion piece (may require subscription):

Either way, there will be a significant number of uninsured Americans unwilling or unable to pay for the inflated insurance available on the exchanges and forced to pay penalties, which for 2016 and thereafter will be the greater of $695 or 2.5% of income. More will choose this option every year. By 2024, Ms. Frogner and I estimate that there will be more than 40 million uninsured, roughly 10% more than today.

So perishes the Affordable Care Act's promise to deliver universal health care—its fatal conceit. The autopsy will show that it died from a lack of affordability, leaving behind millions of Americans who were sold a bill of goods. One thing is painfully clear: that isn't what the doctor ordered.

Oops.

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  • Here is the Washington Post's summary of Parente's projections:

    "Parente's projections differ from the ones from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which in April found the number of uninsured working-age adults will drop from 42 million to 30 million by 2016 and not change much through 2024.

    Of course, both Parente's and CBO's numbers are both their best guesses of what the insurance market will look like in the next 10 years. Which is to say they are very much guesses. Parente's model, developed about a decade ago, emphasizes the types of health plans people tend to choose, as opposed to what's available."
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/05/27/why-the-major-test-for-obamacare-premiums-might-wait-until-2017/

  • In reply to jnorto:

    Exactly. And if the CBO and Parente's numbers are "best guesses," what were the numbers that we were presented when Obamacare was being debated? It was a crap shoot then and it still is. By the way, all the propaganda during that debate focused on making sure that the "40 million uninsured Americans" get covered. Ain't gonna happen.

  • In reply to Dennis Byrne:

    Gallup reports that the first Obamacare sign-up resulted in a net reduction to the uninsured of approximately 11 million or 13.4%. I wonder what the reduction would have been under the Republican "plan."
    http://acasignups.net/14/05/05/gallup-poll-us-uninsured-rate-drops-134

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