Monday Stat Party

Because there is nothing happening in professional football and because I wanted to put something on the site, I started breaking down some passing game statistics this morning.  Why?  I wanted to see in what specific areas of the passing game the Chicago Bears struggled and what separated them from the elite teams in 2008.  My verdict?  I'm not sure I have one.  So how about I give you the numbers and you figure it out.

Note: I took total passing stats.  Not just starting quarterbacks.  I compiled them here.

Let's take the best in the conference...

ARIZONA CARDINALS
418 - 630, 66.3 %
4,875 yards
75 completions to running backs
11.7 yard per catch
31 touchdowns
Kurt Warner: 30 TD / 14 INT
26 sacks

Let's take a middle of the road passing game...

NEW YORK GIANTS
298 - 491, 60.3 %
3,353 yards
52 completions to running backs
11.3 yards per catch
23 touchdowns
Eli Manning: 21 TD / 10 INT
27 sacks

Let's take the Chicago Bears Football Club...

CHICAGO BEARS

304 - 528, 57.6 %
3,229 yards
71 completions to running backs
10.6 yards per catch
20 touchdowns
Orton/Grossman: 20 TD / 14 INT
27 sacks

Jay Cutler was sacked only eleven times, behind a mediocre offensive line.  Aside from that, where does he make the passing game significantly better?  In what areas must the offense focus?  What do all the damn numbers mean?

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  • mmmm

  • Giants still had better overall numbers without Plax. That's why I put them in the middle.

  • Great work, Jeff!

    Could you put an addendum on that stating what Denver's stats were? I just think it would be interesting to see exactly what our new signal-caller was doing out in the Rockies.

  • I am a firm believer in the old adage "Statistics are for losers". The only ones that really matter in the long run are found in the in the "W" column. How many defensive stats and offensive stats are skewed late in games when the offeses are racking up yards against "soft" defenses in games that are all over except for the final score. Example: Brett Favre threw for 22 (?) TDs last season but he fattened up in one game against the Cards with 6, at least 2 of which were considered "Garbage time / why was he even still in the game" TDs. I do find the DVOA--Defense Adjusted Value Over Average, that Ghost referred us to http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2009/07/19_days_to_camp_football_outsi.html in the THURSDAY RODEO to be a better take on stats.

  • does anyone here play fantasy football? if so, i say we start our own league.....

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    i haven't played it before but id definitely be willing to give it a shot

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Fresno, I think the logistics will prove too difficult to put a league together, but I'd rather play fantasy football with you guys than probably anybody else.

    I played one year, in 2003, and won the whole thing. I then retired on top, ala '98 Jordan. I'd come out of retirement though if you get it set up.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Al, I know what you mean about statistics. But any coach/analyst knows that stats are very important. A good football coach does not rely solely on player stats, but he definately should take them into account. It's just part of the game.

    Stats aren't everything, but they sure aren't nothing.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    I dont think Logistics would be a big issue, I am thinking of making a legue on espn.com. I will let you guys know shortly.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    jeff will i face any copyright issues if I name a Fantasy Football League after DaBearsBlog?

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    aww fuck it, nevermind about the fantasy league

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Wow. A lotta fans of the Broncos offensive linemen here. Don't believe post-season prizes. Jason Peters made the Pro-Bowl last year after being benched three times.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Point taken, Ghost. I didn't mean to dismiss stats completetly. Like I said, I DID find the DVOA stats breakdown very illuminating. And I'd STILL like to see a Bear's QB with 25 TD passes and a QB rating in the 90s !

    Did Fresno say Fantasy Football?

    I am in ONE league (same one for years and years) and I share that franchise with a partner. It is as BASIC a league as you can have. TDs, & FGs and only minor bonuses for yardage. No defenses. No Special teams. No week to week free-agents off the waiver wire. We hold a face-to-face draft of 2 TEAM QBs and Kickers, 4 backs, 5 receivers (wideouts and/or tight ends) and 1 optional player who can be a back or a receiver. Lineups are Qb, K, 3 backs/2 rec or 2 backs/3 rec. After week 8 you can sign 2 replacements.

    That's it. That's the list.

    You can figure out if you won or lost each week in about 5 minutes and often by just watching the ESPN bottom line.

    Yeah, you can get pretty thin due to injuries. Too bad, so sad.
    With Team QBs and Ks you never run out at those positions.

    For me, anything beyond that is like a 2nd job.

    To those of you in 4 and 5 leagues with weekly roster changes and defense, special teams, every 10 yards, and turnovers figuring into the scoring, more power to you but that sound too much like work.

    USED to play a lot of STRAT-O-MATIC football, though.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Desmond Mason retiring because the Ravens won't give him a couple year contract. 80 catches 1037 yards last season. Anyone want to kick his tires?

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4325120

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    derrick mason?

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Oops. Hehe. Yeah. Maybe Desmond could play some O-line.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    I would take Derrick Mason, but is he just another Moose?

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Derrick Mason stated in that interview that "it is not about money and that he has made enough money" and he is mainly retiring because he wants to see what else life has to offer. He is retiring because he thinks it is his time and that he wants to retire. I dont think he is coming back and that the Bears will be even close to getting him.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Had a thought today; Forte/Olsen reminds me (a little) of Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzales back in 2001-2004. That offense put up huge #s w/Kevin Green as the QB. They never got out of the first round of the playoffs, as they had no defense whatsoever.

    I think Hester is already a better wideout than anyone they had on that roster. I'm not saying Greg Olsen is Tony Gonzales at this point, but I don't think our lack of star power at wideout will somehow doom our offense. Could have a very good year, particularly if we don't have to run against 8 and 9-man fronts all year. Add a little revitalized defense, and I think you get a very competitive team. There will be some slugfests against the Vikings, but they've basically been unable to hang w/any teams with a good passing attack since moustachio'd Cap'n Childress took over. I'm optimistic.

    The one thing that DVOA doesn't seem to take into account, is it doesn't make the 4-th quarter performances any more statistically significant than 1-st quarter performances. Clearly, good DVOAs still lose games.

    What I want to see, is Cutler galloping away from that mulleted DUI-redneck Jared Allen on a key third down, a receiver heading over to the sideline, and making a key conversion to preserve the win. Cutler is going to make mistakes; maybe a lot of them. But with any luck his playmaking ability should win us a few more games than last year. He's only in his 4th year in the league. It took P. Manning 9 seasons to win a Superbowl. I think he'll get better, and we'll see a different brand of football than we're used to in Big Windy. Only 18 days 'till camp...

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    I am so down with a DaBearsBlog fantasy football league. That idea is for the win. Heck, Jeff could probably give you the e-mail addresses for anyone that wants to play and then you can send the invites via whichever site (Yahoo is my personal favorite) you want.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Don't we have this conversation EVERY off season?

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    You guys want to read something that';; get you "Pissed Off"?

    http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2009/07/21_days_to_camp_cutlers_risk_t.html

    and

    http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2009/07/joyner_fans_are_treating_cutle.html

    Just to get that Bear blood boiling.

    And stat party? Can you say oxymoron?

  • In reply to Shady:

    Thanks for the links, Shaday. My response is: Who the hell is KC Joyner? Never heard of him 'til now. Relax. Like a LOT of those talking heads, they take positions they KNOW will rile an audience. Colin Cowherd, ESPN's most arrogant radio host, makes his living that way. They are worth raising your blood pressure.

    In other news...

    The Bucs have released Brian Griese.

  • In reply to Shady:

    Correction: They are NOT worth raising your blood pressure,

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    There aren't enough Bear Fantasy Football players to go around to have a viable league here :-)

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Some people are REALLY fed up with Mr. Favre....

    http://czabe.blogspot.com/

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    I cant stand the mofo Farve... He really is manipulated the hell out of teams. Goodell should just suspend his ass or revoke his reinstatement into the NFL.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    as for the idiot Koyner, I dont really care for somebody who compares a proven pro bowl Caliber QB to a mediocre chump QB.
    All QB's take risk, hell its part of there job discriprtion, but its the QB's who take the right risk, is where it really matters. Rex "the CHUMP" Grossman would just throw the ball in the air to avoid a sack(PUSSY). As for JAY he clearly tries to force his throw in from time to time and sometimes it works but sometimes it wont. I can respect Jay if he throws a couple INT while trying to make a playm it happens to the best of them. But when your like CHUMP Grossman and just throw the ball high in the air and pray some WR will catch it, then I will fucken hate you. Grossman Threw I dont know but this guys is a fucken TARD for even compare Jay Cutler to Rex "THE CHUMP" Grossman. Grossman threw two INTS and fumbled four times, one fumble was recovered by the COLTS. Our Defense got us to the Superbowl, grossman just managed to put some points up on the board like any other mediocre QB could.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    I am referring to the SB game in Miami.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    There is a neat (Hello I'm) Johnny Knox video on youtube.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNFsIp26RlY

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    i was just watching ESPN and it looks like the following receivers are still available:

    Matt Jones
    Ike Hilliard
    Jerry Porter
    Joe jurevicious
    Amani Toomer
    Marvin Harrison

    I have to believe that the Bears can pick up another WR before camp. I was cool with our receivers before but now i am getting worried again.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Ghost- nice video. I hope he can display that can of ability in the NFL with Da BEARS and Jay Cutler.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    I like football.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Chew on this for a minute:

    http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/huddleup/2009/07/chicago-bears-devin-hester-willing-to-give-up-punt-returns-just-not-immediately.html

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Fantasy Football is ruining the NFL experience for me. Too many players (and fans) too concerned about individual statistics vice the team aspect of the sport. FF is even being integrated into the Sunday NFL telecasts. You FF geeks need to go back to collecting cards and rolling dice.

  • In reply to Grizzly559:

    Bucs released Brian Griese yesterday.

  • 2008 Broncos had a mediocre Oline? I thought they had young bookend tackles Clady and Harris and a pro-bowl center named Wiegmann.. I thought they went through about 17 running backs but managed to grind out better YPC than us with Forte. I thought they played with an even worse defense than us and had to protect Cutler in many more known pass situations. Look Cutler should be a shot it the arm at QB without a doubt, he should help the YPC of Matty just by being there.
    But I could only dream our Oline will be even as good as Denver's was last year. Look at the Devil's advocate side: we have an older, injury prone, past-his-prime LT, a LG who doesn't normally play LG and was a backup Olineman, a Center and RG who's best days are definitely behind them, and essentially a rookie RT. And it will be 2 of the 5s first year with this team, 2 of the 5s first year at that position, and 3 of the 5 are new to our line.
    Just seems like more questions than answers on our O-line before we know how much Jay Cutler can do for us.

    The offense must focus IMO on creating mismatches.. look at the Xs and Ys, who matches up with Hester now that there is a QB he can't outrun, noone so there is a double team; what LB or Safety matches up with Olsen.. none so anytime you see it that's where you go. They should also not throw away plays that work, remember the play against TB; Forte split wide and drew man cover from a LB; Orton hit him in the chest in the end zone but it was knocked away and they never went back to it. They should throw away plays that don't work or don't make sense, ie a fullback dive to your 3rd string FB off the practice squad. Yes Cutle opens up your whole playbook, but there is nothing wrong with using what works.

    Numbers don't mean much. My statistics teacher in college said he could argue opposing sides of an issue with statistics using the same data compiled differently. Look at the Superbowl this year. Pitt got whooped, you take back the 100yd int with 5 secs left and even give AZ a FG, a 10 pt difference and that final drive means nothing. But that is football. That one play was the difference in the game. And in a literal game of inches, yards are meaningless.

  • I think Porter is an interesting case, BaM. He's been a non-factor for 2-3 seasons now, but playing in the zoo that is Oakland can do that. Even Randy Moss almost disappeared into the black hole that the Raiders have become. Lately though, I believe Porter's had a lot of trouble staying healthy enough to be a factor on the field.

    Max succinctly points out why Fantasy Football has helped make the NFL THE mega-successful sports entity that it has become.
    The NFL is #1 and and frankly, I don't think baseball or basketball is even close enough to claim the title of #2.

    Alas, the prospect of forthcoming labor strife and an uncapped year looms large. A good reason to enjoy the hell out of 2010 because NFL 2011 could be a real mess.

  • These stats don't say much, they're a little too surface level. However I applaud you for trying.

    @SpawofDitka: Sounds like SOMEONE sucks at fantasy football!

  • In reply to Perno:

    Nah...never did the FF thing. It doesn't work the same way the game of Football does. It's all about individual stats. I did play Strat-O-Matic in the 80s though. That was based on team stats. Max does make a good point about watching a game like Oak v Jax and having some stake in it.I have the Sunday Ticket package and get all the games...and pretty much stick to the Bears and the Red Zone Channel.

  • In reply to Perno:

    The deal with Jerry Porter is he is so worried about his body codnition, avoiding injuries, and getting respect that he psychs himself out and can't play FOOTBALL! Think Alonzo Spellman minus the bi-polar

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