Hey y'all! Hope you're doing well. I realize I haven't written anything of substance in a while. I don't think this is going to have much substance either, but anyways, the facts listed here are true just the same.
- The Chicago Cubs are having a really tough time winning low-scoring games. As of Sunday morning, they're just 3-21 in games in which they score fewer than 5 runs. Meanwhile, when they manage to hold an opponent to fewer than 5 runs, they're still just 9-10. Put another way: other teams have beaten the Cubs 10 times when scoring fewer than 5 runs, but the Cubs have beaten other teams just 3 times in the 24 games they've done that. Does that make sense? I realize that's kind of a meandering way to put that. How's this: CUBS ARE 3-21 WHEN THEY SCORE 4 OR LESS
- In a similar vein, the Cubs tend to need lots of hits in order to win. They haven't won a game in which they've collected fewer than 6 hits. And they usually need at least 9 hits to win. Here are the number of hits they collected in each of their 12 wins so far, sorted: 6, 6, 7, 9, 9, 11, 11, 12, 12, 13, 14, 15.
- So you know Pythagorean win expectancy right? You take runs scored and runs allowed, do a little math, and come up with an expected win percentage. I.e., when a team scores as many runs as it allows, you expect its win% to be about .500. Well, the Cubs are underperforming that mark considerably. Their expected record is 16-19, but their actual record is 12-23 (as of Sunday morning).
- So when does a team underperform its PythagWin%? When it lacks clutch hitting and a shutdown bullpen. Related: the Cubs are 2-7 in one-run games, and 1-4 in games that go into extra innings.
- The Indians, Padres, Phillies, and Rangers each have worse run differentials than the Cubs. And each team has at least 5 more wins than Chicago NL. Actually, Texas has 7 more wins.
- The Cubs are 8th in the NL in runs allowed, and 13th in runs scored.
OK I think that's all I've got for you today!
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