Game Post 5/16

schwarber_swing_5_15_2019

Series preview is here.

Watch/Listen

Thursday: 5:40 PM CT on MLB Network/NBC Sports Chicago/670AM

Lineups

Cubs

1. Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Daniel Descalso (L) 2B
4. Javier Baez (R) SS
6. Victor Caratini (S) 1B
7. Jason Heyward (L) RF
9. Jose Quintana (R) P
Reds
1. Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
2. Kris Bryant (R) 3B
3. Daniel Descalso (L) 2B
4. Javier Baez (R) SS
6. Victor Caratini (S) 1B
7. Jason Heyward (L) RF
9. Jose Quintana (R) P
Bullpen Usage
screen-shot-2019-05-16-at-1-13-33-pm
screen-shot-2019-05-16-at-1-13-52-pm

Lineups and Bullpen Usage via Baseball Press.

Opposing pitcher

Scouting Reports from Brooks Baseball.

Luis CastilloLuis Castillo has thrown 5,074 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2017 and 2019, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season and Spring Training. In 2019, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (96mph) and Change (87mph), also mixing in a Sinker (97mph) and Slider (86mph).

His fourseam fastball generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has some natural sinking action, has well above average velo and has slight armside run. His change generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' changeups, is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' changeups, dives down out of the zone, is much firmer than usual and has slight armside fade. His sinker has an obvious tail, is blazing fast, generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' sinkers, results in many more groundballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers and has some natural sinking action. His slider results in many more groundballs compared to other pitchers' sliders, has primarily 12-6 movement and has some two-plane movement.

Sean's Note: The Reds expect big things from Castillo and after a slow start last year, he is dominating so far in 2019. The hard-throwing righty is striking out 31% of hitters he has faced this year. When he isn't striking people out he is inducing a boatload of outs on the ground. 59.3% of balls put in play against the 26-year old are grounders. The change up is his most nasty pitch, which he uses to get a ton of swinging strikes.

Final Thoughts: Victor Caratini is back from his hand injury and playing first base with Anthony Rizzo nearing a return from his back problems. Daniel Descalso is surprisingly hitting third against the hard-throwing Castillo. Double plays are a real danger with an extreme ground ball pitcher on the mound. José Quintana has been good this season, while not pitching quite as well his past two starts they were still quality starts.

Comments

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  • fb_avatar

    Maybe Bote needs a few days to get his swing back, and his glove too. Yesterday that ball jumped right by his glove and he misplayed KB's throw to 3rd. Now both were difficult to field, but if he got one of the two the game would have been different. Schwarbs does take walks. In May he's only hitting .182 but his OBP is a Votto-like .404.

  • In reply to Jonathan Friedman:

    I don't get all the love for Bote, and especially his glove. He's a good player. But he's not gonna carry our team; sure he is clutch at times. But I'm not impressed with his glove. His minor league career fielding % at 3B is .890. Look at his major league defending percentages and it is obvious he got out to a good start and is just regressing to the mean. No matter how much anyone wants to spin the advanced defensive metrics, I don't think his glove is any better than average, at best. And we should be noticing that as of late...

  • Reds once again -135 favorites according to Vegas. Interesting I know Luis Castillo is pitching really well this year but definitely not typical for the cubs to be fairly large underdogs against a last place team. We can really use Rizzo back his absence is felt overall

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    Cubs scored 5 yesterday which is close to their average per gameThat should have been enough to win. Rizzo is obviously a key player but an adequate BP would have saved the game. Edwards and Monty can’t usually pitch when they enter the game with runners on .

    If all the commenters were managing Cubs would be 162-0. Sometimes losses happen. Bad BP not lack of Rizzo hurt more yesterday.

  • In reply to stix:

    Let me reiterate this is more of a going forward concern than an excuse. Rizzo is a significant loss on any roster in my view.

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    Agree

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    I don’t know why people are expecting the cubs to be favored. I stated in the thread for game one of this series, in reply to a poster who said they expect nothing less than a sweep, that I wouldn’t count on winning both of games 2 and 3 due to Darvish pitching (Contreras on the bench for Taylor) along with Rizzo out our bench, and for Luis Castillo starting game 3. It won’t surprise me if this is our first series loss since opening day.

    And no offense, but if your looking at the standings this early in the season and using your reasoning that the first place team should be favored to beat the last place team despite playing on the road, when they’re much better than the typical last place team, then I guess I’ll vehement continue to disagree that the Brewers are just as talented as the Cubs.

  • In reply to Cubber Lang:

    Should read first series loss since opening week.

  • In reply to Cubber Lang:

    Ohh I can understand how the odds could be even or even cincy -120 for example. But cincy is closing at -140 which as a guy that closely follows Vegas odds that’s the most favorable line I’ve ever seen from them against this cubs team that’s owned them. The reds are certainly better but just pointing out them being this large a favorite over us is unusual.

    I don’t really know how the brewers have anything to do with this discussion. All I said was they’re a threat while stating that I see the cubs as the favorites given a number of players bounce backs (KB and willson in particular). All I know is I called them a threat last year and you and others dismissed my opinion and said even the cards were better. Now they just beat the crap out of the Phillies all series and they’re still not a contender lol. I don’t get why some of you can’t be realistic about how strong this division is while still supporting the cubs and having faith that their talent will win out

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    If I’m not mistaken, the cubs had a losing record to the Reds last year? So same cubs offense (down one of their best bats) against one of the best pitchers In the league...

  • In reply to Cubber Lang:

    Again I’m not saying it’s shocking the reds are favored. I’m surprised the degree which their favored. -140 on a team perceived as a last place team by the public is pretty much Vegas going all in on the reds winning. The public is assuredly gonna be on the cubs

  • I may just be a Cubs homer, but I came into this game thinking we were a much better team than Cincy. Upon further review, and looking at these posted lineups, they appear much more evenly matched than I anticipated. Nearly identical, in fact. :)

    The Brewers keep beating up on Philly, so we need a W today to keep a cushion on the division lead. Castillo is a revelation and a tough matchup for this team. Hopefully Q can continue the SP mojo and we don't need much help out of the pen. Cishek is available, and I expect Chatwood to begin getting more high-leverage opportunities. Always good for the blood pressure.

    A brief but strong storm went through Chicago headed straight for Cincy. Should be arriving right around game time. Could be a long night.

    Cubs win, 5-3.

    Go Cubs!

  • In reply to BarleyPop:

    You are funny BP!! Good catch...

    The Reds while not great, are closer to being a good team than a bad team. There’s enough to like about their pitching. They have a little too much age in some of their position players. But their a team that probably deserves a little more respect, especially when playing in their ballpark.

  • op 5 in tonights order vs Castillo:
    Schwarber 3 for 6, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 0 K
    KB 3 for 9, 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K
    DD 4 for 10, 2B, 2HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K
    Javy 2 for 11, 2B, 1 RBI, 0 BB, 4 K
    WC 3 for 4, 2 2B, 0 K.
    15 for 37, 6 2B, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 5 BB, 11 K
    Combined:
    .405/.476/.892

    I'm thinking Joe is on to something. Let's get to him early boys.

    Oh and Barley Pop? We are a much better team than the Reds. They're no joke but likely a year away. they may hover around the middle of the division most of the year but they have some serious holes and depend on hot streaks more than the Cubs do.

  • In reply to TC154:

    To continue that thought, teams like the Reds and Pirates are why people who are dreaming of 100 wins are going to be disappointed. Only the Giants and Marlins are horrible in the entire NL in fact. I think the best team in the NL this year may end up with 94-97 wins and I think the Cubs fit right in that range.

  • In reply to TC154:

    I have us at 95. A little improvement over last year, but in a much tough division.

    I think this Cubs team is vastly superior over last year’s model.

  • In reply to TC154:

    I was poking fun at Sean. He posted the Cubs' lineup twice, for both the Cubs and Reds.

  • In reply to BarleyPop:

    "I tried everything in my life.
    Things I like I try 'em twice.
    You got that right."

  • In reply to TC154:

    That’s an astute observation TC! When I looked at the lineup earlier I was rather befuddled!! Hope it plays out well for the Cubbies... Luis Castillo is a better pitcher now than he was when he’s faced the Cubs in the past so we shall see if we still have his number or if his adjustments have tipped the scales.

    Go Cubs!! Let’s see if Javy and KB can continue their hitting and on-base steaks. But we need a couple other bats to do their jobs too.

  • When Rizzo gets back, I'd like to see Joe give Willy a try at leadoff.

  • The worst thing that has happened to Cubs Twitter lately, and boy has it been ugly, is the absence of our very own @dabynsky..... but I digress.....I digress only because “Dab’s” made Cubs twitter fun....

    With that stated as I said two days ago the Cubs will sweep tonight and I have no idea of the score but I believe that they will. And that’s all we really care about isn’t it?

  • fb_avatar

    Just thinking before the game starts. Right now my AS are Willson, Javy, and I never thought I'd be saying this earlier this year--KB. Pitchers are Kyle and Lester, with Lester starting.

  • fb_avatar
    In reply to Jonathan Friedman:

    and Rizzo if he doesn't miss too many games.

  • I'd sit alone and watch your light
    My only friend through teenage nights
    And everything I had to know
    I heard it on my radio
    You gave them all those old time stars
    Through wars of worlds invaded by Mars
    You made 'em laugh, you made 'em cry
    You made us feel like we could fly (radio)
    So don't become some background noise
    A backdrop for the girls and boys
    Who just don't know or just don't care
    And just complain when you're not there
    You had your time, you had the power
    You've yet to have your finest hour
    Radio (radio)
    All we hear is radio ga ga
    Radio goo goo
    Radio ga ga
    All we hear is radio ga ga
    Radio blah blah
    Radio, what's new?
    Radio, someone still loves you
    We watch the shows, we watch the stars
    On videos for hours and hours
    We hardly need to use our ears
    How music changes through the years
    Let's hope you never leave old friend
    Like all good things on you we depend
    So stick around 'cause we might miss you
    When we grow tired of all this visual
    You had your time, you had the power
    You've yet to have your finest hour
    Radio (radio)
    All we hear is radio ga ga
    Radio goo goo
    Radio ga ga
    All we hear is radio ga ga
    Radio goo goo
    Radio ga ga
    All we hear is radio ga ga
    Radio blah blah
    Radio, what's new?
    Someone still loves you
    Radio ga ga
    Radio ga ga
    Radio ga ga
    You had your time, you had the power
    You've yet to have your finest hour
    Radio (radio)

  • In reply to Skidoorunner:

    Cubs win 4-2.

  • In reply to Skidoorunner:

    Slow down, Skidoo... It's only the third inning.

  • Too early to count us out Vegas huge hit Castillo is one of those kids you gotta jump on early

  • Didn’t the reds get José iglesias on a minor league deal??? Outstanding signing I get he’s an imperfect player that doesn’t walk, but this is still a great glove and solid contact guy. Surprised he didn’t have much of a market I’d think he can help a lot of teams, even if he’s no impact guy

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    He was traded. Many times but the trade that got him to the reds was for Dan Straily.

  • In reply to stix:

    I believe the straily trade was for Castillo not Iglesias. Heck of a trade for cincy Marlins have given away a number of good players unfortunately

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    You’re right I goofed thought you were talking about Castillo

  • In reply to stix:

    Iglesias signed as FA

  • In reply to stix:

    Oops again. Don’t know if you were referring to the ss or the pitcher.

  • In reply to stix:

    SS they got him on a minors deal. Not flashy but good value Iglesias was a victim of recent free agency

  • The baseball gods smiled mightily upon yon Cubbies in that 1st inning.....

  • In reply to Wickdipper:

    ... but I hope Mother Nature doesn't frown upon our good fortune.

  • In reply to BarleyPop:

    The rain is coming and some might be strong. Hopefully we get through the fifth before the heavy storms show up. Will be close on the timing depending on how the fifth goes.

  • fb_avatar

    Q's been very efficient with his pitches, and I don't know how long it's been raining but it is coming down.

  • That sucks.

  • In reply to BarleyPop:

    And that sucks even harder. I'm hoping this game, one way or another, can continue.

  • In reply to BarleyPop:

    Looks at best to be a delay for another two hours.

  • With the return of the old Heyward this might be the worst hitting outfield in baseball. Although, Almora has shown some signs of turning it around. I think Schwaber is what he is. Low average, 20-25 homers and 50 rbi.

  • In reply to 2016 Cubs:

    You mean the agency of Injured and Lost, No Development, and Wasted Money?

  • In reply to 2016 Cubs:

    People get defensive when I question the overall OF offensive production. Let’s be realistic mediocre OF production has been an issue for years. Some get angry at fans who dare criticize aspects of this roster but we’ve seen 1st hand what happens when KB gets injured and willson doesn’t produce to expectations. The team needs better overall offensive production outside of their big 4

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    The OF has been atrocious for 3 years. If someone gets defensive over that critique, then they are not watching.

    I’m a huge Schwarber guy, but at least I am honest when saying he is brutal right now. Facts!

  • In reply to 2016 Cubs:

    I should at least spell his name correct. Schwarber

  • A 3 run rally cannot start with 8, 9, 1. Shameful. Just ruined a good plate of linguini carbonara.

  • Years ago there was another really good Cubs blog (its true), and there was a poster who ragged on Votto. He hated his uber-selective approach, he argued that a guy in the 3 or 4 hole should be swinging to drive in runs, not take walks when there were chances for RBI. I didn't necessarily agree back then, Votto was too good all around. But I now see the argument when watching Schwarber.

    In my opinion, Kyle has been too selective. He's always had a great eye, and his patient approach is a big part of his game. But he looks almost apprehensive now, and has for some time. Time was when Schwarbs had the look of at least a .280 hitter with tons of power and high OBP. Now he looks like Adam Dunn light. His second AB tonight is the one that makes me post this. Looking at a 3-2 strike is too common. I'm not suggesting he abandon his patient approach, but I wish Kyle would get more aggressive.

  • In reply to JohnCC:

    I've made those same observations about Schwarber a couple years ago, after the failed leadoff experiment. He has a strong personality, but is very willing to please. Too willing, IMO. He seems to be torn between what he wants to do and what he thinks he "should" be doing. I'd prefer he just let his natural hitting ability take over and swing away.

  • Hopefully this delay at least means Castillo is done. Win it itself now that the teams playing from behind

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    Is everybody drunk during this game post, or is it just me? I blame it all on Sean because of the duplicate lineups.

    Seriously, I'm sure that was some type of malfunction, but a lot of comments in this thread have gone haywire. Something in the water.

    As stix said, this rain should pass by 9:30 ET or so, then you need time to clean up. Cincy remains at home tomorrow, and we go to Washington for a night game. They'll try to get this one in, and probably will, but this might go past midnight.

    It just sucks that it got delayed down one run with KB and Javy due up.

  • In reply to BarleyPop:

    I’m more of a weekend drinker my friend too busy to partake much on weekdays unfortunately. Meant that assuming we resume play I’d be glad that Castillo should likely be removed. I’ll take my chances against the pen with the way he was throwing the ball. Hope we resume play and don’t get screwed

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    I wasn’t paying too much attention in the bottom of the fifth, just curious were the wild pitches bad or did Contreras not block them?

  • In reply to stix:

    Honestly stix I saw this rain delay coming a mile away so decided to hit the gym instead of waiting for the rain to kick in. It’s arguable that I jinxed the team because I literally left the bottom of the 5th. It would sting if this game gets rained out which is what I was hoping for in a way up 2-0

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    Willson should have caught both those wild pitches. I’d feel much better if the game was tied 2-2, which it would be if he had. Oh well, hopefully we can finish the game and make a comeback off the Reds pen
    And to steal a verse from BP
    “They say freak,
    When you're singled out,
    The red,
    Well it filters through.”

  • In reply to Cubpack:

    I don’t think either should have been ruled a wild pitch. If I was scoring, they both go down as passed balls

  • In reply to Cubpack:

    I don’t know what it is but the team hasn’t done Quintana many favors. It always seems like he’s pitching in high stress low scoring games. I haven’t checked the numbers but I’m sure they’d support that. Even when they do score for him it’s typically late in the game

  • In reply to Cubpack:

    Good call. I often cranked Chevelle into my earbuds while night-fishing for redfish in coastal Florida swamps in the early 2000's. "See(k)ing red(s) again!" Get it?

    Thanks for the memories.

  • In reply to BarleyPop:

    I’ve cranked them often also, just never while night fishing in Florida swamps unfortunately (or maybe fortunately). 3 kids from the Chicago area I believe

  • In reply to Cubpack:

    That's one of "those songs". I've always changed the lyrics to "seeking red's again". Quite a coincidence.

    Thanks again. That's why this is fun. Any lyric can bring back a fond memory.

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    I'm out in the woods for a long weekend, listening to Pat and Ron. I didn't see it, but they said Castillo and Q had physical contact on the play at the plate. Something about Q landing on a body part. Between that and the delay, I'd be shocked if Castillo continued.

    Speaking of drinking and Pat and Ron, we've had fun over the last couple weeks about Pat's pronunciation of KEEN-tana and CONE-treras. But if you played a drinking game where you had to drink every time Ron said "no doubt about it", we'd all be like Skidoo and be down for the count in the third inning.

    I shouldn't throw stones. I got a good arm, and a broad target.

  • Looks like 10:05 ET restart from a tweet I saw.

  • Votto could have scored there. He didn't due to his station-to-station mindset. He's not looking at defensive positioning and anticipating outcomes. But WAR loves him because he walks. Walks don't win games, runs do. And the runs you can get over on your opponent are underrated, IMO. And not knocked enough when you don't.

  • How many times do we see Schwarber stand with bat on shoulder and watch the 3rd strike go by. He doesn't even move. Where is the coaching? Why isn't he ready to swing with 2 strikes?

  • In reply to clarkAddson:

    Guys lost all confidence trying to hit breaking balls. Think he’s batting under .100 against curves/sliders

  • In reply to clarkAddson:

    Obviously he thinks the pitches are balls and more times than not they are but he Gets called out on pitches outside the zone. Might be a good idea to use the Votto approach and try to foul them off rather than rely on the umps.

  • In reply to stix:

    If they are close to being a strike he should be swinging. He just stands there flat foot. I think he is waiting for more walks.

  • Well that.sucked.

  • In reply to BarleyPop:

    Didn’t do enough to deserve the win. The two runs were gifts in the first . Bryant walked on a pitch that Schwarber would have been called out and two fortunate balls hit down the third baseline.

    4 hits doesn’t deserve a win very often given the Reds had 12..

  • In reply to stix:

    Contreras not blocking pitches twice was a gift to the Reds...

  • jhey is a fraud. should donate money to charity. only four years left. Theo's national league Carl Crawford. should pay him to stay home. cubs traded soler thinking right field was covered up.

  • In reply to Oldno7:

    Hes not a leadoff hitter. I thought that was figured out the last couple 2, tree years they tried it.... I don’t get it. They had a potential leadoff hitter on the club but traded him away.

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