Cubs Den Top Prospects: 25-40

Oscar De La Cruz

Oscar De La Cruz

We are finally here. After several delays (health, weather, MiLB's frustrating decision to take down their 2018 video archive for maintenance) I am finally ready to begin unveiling the annual Cubs Den prospect rankings.

It is also time for my annual disclaimer: I abhor prospect rankings. The reason I spent so much time and effort editing video for twitter threads and writing up in depth overviews all offseason is because I feel it is a far more enlightening method of presenting these prospects. Numerical rankings on the other hand create false equivalences and narratives in the minds of readers.

I also understand that my rankings this week will be far more widely read than perhaps anything else I write this season. It is part of the prospect writing game that I have voluntarily signed up to participate in. If forced to group players I prefer to work with tiers, and the way I have broken up the list into chunks as part of the roll out this wee, is my way of taking a bit of a hybrid approach.

So... before anyone gets all bent out of shape regarding one prospect being higher in the list than another, let me say this in bold with big font:

Very little separates the prospects in this portion of the rankings

I would even go so far as to say they are interchangeable.

They all possess the ability to reach AAA and potentially receive a shot at a Major League career. Some already have. But each also has an aspect of their game that puts their ability to break through as full-time Major Leaguers in doubt. In some cases they have the stuff but haven't shown the necessary control, in others the opposite. Some of the hitters have a great idea of the strike zone but lack power or may be an awkward defensive fit.

In many cases it is a "simple" matter of consistency. Consistency is often overlooked but it is the determining factor for most prospects. On their best days every one of the guys could produce against MLB competition. While all performance fluctuates, the ceilings for many we are about to discuss do not exceed the MLB threshold by a great deal, so their ability to perform near their highest level becomes vital.

This season will be a big test for just how effective the Cubs draft and development strategies have been for pitchers. The reason it becomes so vitally important is the contract situation in the Chicago bullpen beyond this season. Most of the relievers the team has counted on the past couple of years will be free agents at the conclusion of this season. In addition, there is likely to be one, and potentially two rotation spots up for grabs next spring.

Given the money the team needs to start re-directing to lock up their young hitters, and the number of draft picks the Cubs have spent on pitchers in recent years, it will be a massive failure if the Cubs are not able to fill at least a couple of those upcoming holes with internal solutions. I choose that word carefully: it would be a MASSIVE failure.

The good news is, eleven of the sixteen players detailed below are pitchers. This grouping is comprised of a few full-time relievers as well as a large contingent of right-handers that the Cubs have developed as starters, and they do still have a chance to succeed as back-of-the-rotation types if they hit their ceiling, but their path to the Majors likely leads to the bullpen (at least initially).

25. Duane Underwood, Jr.

duaneunderwood_2018 Offseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

The Cubs have indicated they will continue to groom the talented Duane Underwood, Jr. as a starter this spring. He did rebound to put up solid numbers and make his first Major League start in 2018 but this is also his final option year, and though there does project to be at least one opening in the Chicago starting rotation next year, there will be plenty of competition for any job. Which means the most likely path for entry into a full-time MLB gig is likely through the bullpen. Thankfully for Underwood, he has the tools to succeed in that role, and the Cubs did give him several relief appearances in Iowa at the end of last season.

His command and control suffered when he worked out of the pen, but it was a tough ask to have Underwood establish himself in that role so late in the season. His velocity did jump as hoped and although he struggled to throw his secondary pitches for strikes they did flash the same movement at their new velocities as well. Many fans have grown impatient with Underwood's development as he has seemingly been around forever, but keep in mind that he was 17 years old when this front office chose him in the 2nd round of their first draft class. He is only a few months older than Dakota Mekkes and Thomas Hatch, and is still younger than many of the college arms the Cubs drafted in recent years including Iowa teammates Duncan Robinson and James Norwood, and even some Tennessee arms like Michael Rucker and Matt Swarmer. So, his ascent through the ranks may have seemed slow, but in reality Underwood is right on track.

26. Oscar de la Cruz

oscardelacruz_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

It was not a great season by Oscar de la Cruz, but prior to his suspension he was taking his turn in the rotation every five days for the first time, well... ever. Unfortunately, the suspension essentially amounted to the same thing as another injury. It could have been a make or break year for determining whether to view him as a starter or strictly as a reliever moving forward. The most important thing, regardless of his ultimate role, is getting the high-end stuff and solid command de la Cruz showed in 2016-17 to return on a more consistent basis. This is a guy that used to sit 93-94 and touch 97 who could follow it up with a hammer curve while spotting in a decent changeup. At the end of 2017 and throughout the first half of 2018 his fastball was down a peg and his curve lacked the same bite.

Given he will miss the first month of the season serving the remainder of his suspension it might best for the Cubs to transition him to a relief role where it may be easier for him to regain his previous stuff and command without the toll of a starter's workload.  They can always reconsider their options down the road if de la Cruz pitches well enough out of the pen to demand a larger role.

27. Thomas Hatch

thomashatch_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

Thomas Hatch answered a lot of questions I had regarding durability and stamina in 2018. He held up across the length of the season while also pitching deeper into ballgames. What holds me back from rating him higher at this point is Hatch did not seem to make any progress with his command. His stuf is good but not great and I just don't know if he can hold up multiple times through a MLB lineup walking as many guys as he does and then missing over the plate as well. His upside remains that of a back-of-the-rotation starter, but his stuff should also play better out of the pen than some of the Cubs other starter candidates, so he does have more avenues open to him.

28. Paul Richan

paulrichan_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

This is one of the rankings I am least certain about. Paul Richan overwhelmed the majority of NWL hitters he faced last year despite not appearing to have a true plus pitch. Command was certainly a big part of it, as was his ability to change speeds and the hitters eye level. He was certainly too advanced for the level. But it is still a little early for me to make any sweeping proclamations regarding Richan. He shows better command and the same type of pitchability as Keegan Thompson so I expect Richan will quickly ascend these rankings in 2019, but until I see how his stuff plays against better hitters multiple times through a batting order I am going to remain conservative.

29. Trent Giambrone

trentgiambrone_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

A little guy that packs a punch and hustles all over the field. Trent Giambrone is definitely positioned to become a fan favorite over the next few years. More importantly, he could function as a valuable 26th-man riding the Des Moines shuttle, even if he never grabs a full-time bench role in Chicago. With the athleticism to play multiple infield and outfield spots, as well as his ability to impact games with his bat and feet, Giambrone is an ideal candidate to fill in at the MLB level whenever injuries occur outside the catcher position.

30. Jhonny Pereda

jhonnypereda_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

I seem to be on the high end when it comes to future projections for Jhonny Pereda. Some have him pegged as no more than a 3rd catcher, but I think that is more likely his floor, with a semi-regular role at the MLB level a possibility. There is still untapped potential in his bat with a high probability he captures it. Pereda is one of the better contact hitters in the system and is just beginning to tap into a bit of power. He possesses all the necessary MLB caliber tools (hands, feet, arm) behind the plate. Plus, the catching position is currently an offensive wasteland in the Majors so it isn't a high bar to clear.

31. James Norwood

jamesnorwood_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

James Norwood has the stuff to miss bats and become a high leverage reliever in the Majors. In terms of pure stuff, perhaps only Dillon Maples can rival him. His high effort delivery leads to abundant control and command issues however. They are not as pronounced as what we see from Maples, but they have held Norwood back just the same. It won't take a major leap for Norwood to grab a full-time role in Chicago. With the majority of the contracts in the Cubs bullpen coming up at the end of the year, Norwood is well positioned to take up one of the vacancies in 2020, if not before.

32. Erich Uelmen

erichuelmen_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

This guy is still a bit of an enigma to me. He definitely has Major League caliber stuff, especially his heavy, low-90s sinker. It all comes down to consistency for Erich Uelmen. If he can develop more consistency with his two secondaries he has a chance to stick in a big league rotation as a groundball pitcher capable of missing a few bats as well. If his changeup doesn't become a threat, Uelmen's 3/4 arm slot will make him susceptible against left-handed hitters, and Uelmen will be forced to the pen in a specialist role.

33. Duncan Robinson

duncanrobinson_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

This is a guy who has exceeded expectations his entire career. I've always projected Robinson as a swingman rather than a starting pitcher because I question whether his stuff will play multiple times through a MLB lineup but he does possess a starter's frame and a starter's command. His delivery is low effort Robinson strikes me as a guy that could function as a versatile rubber arm capable of filling any role on any given day. And his managers will love him because he can be counted on to throw strikes and keep the ball in the ballpark.

34. Trevor Clifton

trevorclifton_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

Trevor Clifton re-established himself as a legitimate prospect after a tumultuous 2017 campaign. His stuff has backed up a bit and due to lacking a consistent out pitch he struggles at times to put hitters away. It forces Clifton to throw extra pitches and leads to higher walk totals. He is profiling more as a potential back-of-the-rotation or long reliever than the potential middle-of-the-rotation or late inning reliever he appeared to be back in 2016. A move to the could help him regain a bit of juice and lessen the burden on being as precise and efficient. 

35. Matt Swarmer

mattswarmer_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

Matt Swarmer came out of nowhere to put together an incredible season that culminated in being named the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Now, there are some caveats to that. Swarmer was old for the High-A level that he dominated at the start of 2018, as his effectiveness did lessen with the step up in competition at AA. His funky delivery and over-the-top throwing motion gives hitters a very different look, but it could also leave him susceptible to left-handed hitters, at least multiple times through an order. He reminds me of Luke Farrell in a number of ways, but with a greater degree of control and consistency. At 25 years old, he needs to follow up his successful 2018 with another in 2019, because he has little time to lose if he wants to forge a long MLB career.

36. Jimmy Herron

jimmyherron_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

Jimmy Herron has hit everywhere he has gone. He hit .300 in each of his three seasons at Duke. He hit .300 in his summer on the Cape. Not only does he have the hand-eye coordination to consistently make contact, Herron also has a keen eye at the plate. He walked more than he struck out in his college career. There were some pre-draft concerns regarding an elbow injury that could require TJS and prevent him from playing centerfield, but from what I've managed to gather Herron avoided the knife this offseason. It is obviously early in the process but my first impressions are Herron could eventually break through where several similar Cubs prospects (Mark Zagunis, Charcer Burks, John Andreoli, etc) failed because he may just be able to stick in centerfield. If he can't then he'll likely fall into the same trap as the others because Major League teams rarely give out bench spots to right-handed corner outfielders with limited power.

37. Andy Weber

andyweber_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

My favorite under-the-radar selection the Cubs made in the 2018 draft. Andy Weber possesses the arm, hands and athleticism to handle all four infield positions and probably the outfield corners if given the opportunity. Combine that with a solid approach and the potential for extra base and maybe even a little home run power from the left side of the plate and Weber profiles as a valuable bench piece on a first division team, or potentially even a starter in some situations. 

38. Bailey Clark

baileyclark_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

Bailey Clark has all the makings of a power reliever. He can work up in the zone with a fastball that can touch 97, and also get good downward plane on the ball from his 6'4" frame as he pounds the bottom of the zone. When on top of his game he also features an above average slider alongside a solid changeup, which gives him the ability to work effectively against hitters from both sides of the plate, and multiple innings if necessary. What Clark hasn't managed to do is show he can remain healthy and consistent. Injuries have plagued him stretching back to his days at Duke. He has avoided anything major, but multiple times per season he has been forced to reset and it has effected the consistency of his stuff throughout the course of the year. 

39. Mark Zagunismarkzagunis_mini

Zagunis made some positive adjustments last season. He got himself into great shape, showing more speed and athleticism. It helped him in the field and on the bases. At the plate he made more contact and seemed willing to sacrifice a bit of power. Since Zagunis is unlikely to ever hit many home runs I'm not sure it was a bad trade off. We know Zagunis has the plate discipline to draw walks at the big league level. But he remains stuck in the outfield corners as a right-handed hitter in an organization with a plethora of options ahead of him to fill that role, and he also got hurt at the end of the year, which has been a common occurrence during his career. Zagunis is in his final option year so his days of riding the Des Moines-Chicago shuttle are numbered. If he isn't traded during the year there is a good chance Zagunis will get exposed to waivers prior to next season.

40. Michael Rucker

michaelrucker_miniOffseason Prospect Overview    -    Twitter Thread

A pleasant surprise as an 11th round pick in 2016. Rucker has been one of the better strike throwers among starters in the system the past two years. The step up to AA saw a significant drop in his ability to miss bats. His fastball, which was so effective in 2017, was still difficult to for hitters to square up but he wasn't able to throw it by them as much. As a flyball pitcher it is tough to get by at the highest levels relying heavily on weak contact. The starting experience allowed Rucker to expand the use of his curve and changeup, which he can utilize to keep hitters honest, but I expect him to begin transitioning back to a relief role at some point this season in order to regain some velocity and maximize the effectiveness of his fastball-slider combination. 

Comments

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  • Thanks for doing these lists Mike.

    I am surprised they are still trying Underwood as a SP. maybe because we have Maples and Norwood in similar roles they see redundancy with that type of pitcher so they are giving it one last try.

    Would prefer to see some of these guys “ranked” higher, but hopeful one or two can figure out their issues.

  • In reply to IrwinFletcher:

    I think your half right w/your own answer. They have a lot of early inning type depth at relief pitcher that.can be called up & don’t necessarily need Underwood there as well. Yet. But the same point is opposite at starter. Some depth at AAA, but not yet reliable enough for role in big leagues combined w/staff currently built at Wrigley. They have Mills & Underwood w/cups of coffee & Alzolay soon but also he may relieve at 1st. Tseng to me would have to only be emergency to an emergency.

  • Nicely done, Michael. Thank you.

  • I didn't mention it in the write up, but I no longer consider Alex Mills and Dillon Maples prospects despite the fact they maintain their rookie eligibility. Both are 27 years old and at some point a player transitions from prospect to veteran and I've chosen to set that threshhold at 27, especially since both of those guys have spent two seasons already getting chances in the Majors.

  • Agreed - Nicely put together Michael. I look forward to seeing at least some of these guys get some time in Wrigley the next few years.

  • Thanks again Michael for your hard work on these prospects. Let's hope that Management's pitching plan works out--some of these pitchers are bound to figure it out, right? Right? Right?

  • In reply to wthomson:

    All it takes is for 1-2 of these pitchers to contribute for a couple of years. Seems reasonable to expect.

  • Michael..........just tremendous. Thank you.

    This FO team has struggled in Boston and here with drafting and developing pitchers. Like Joel said yesterday, 2 rookie relief pitchers at a combined $1.1Mil per year for 3 years takes big financial pressure off the team vs. a combined $10-15Mil per year for 2, 32 year old relievers.

    I wonder if the Arenado long term signing will get the CUbs and Bryant chatting about the same.

  • OT but that was a smart move by Arenado.....good for him.

  • Darvish was very Chatwood like today. 4 walks in 1 1/3 innings.

  • Hatch, Uelmen, Richan move the needle for me. They have been very productive (meaning they are good) at the minor league level. As for those of us who are not excited about Underwood (I am in this camp, although always hoping he can turn the corner), I would not classify this as impatience at all. I would use the phrase "have very low expectations" for any MLB production.

    He has pitched for 6 full years in the minors, and you could not classify any one of those years as highly successful, other than health-wise. He just is not very good at getting hitters out. Not good at striking them out. He can give you innings, but never more than above-average quality. 6 years of these types of results is very hard to ignore.

  • In reply to HefCA:

    A 2.50 ERA as a 19-year old in the MWL and 2.41 ERA as a 20-year old in the CL are not highly successful?

    That is one heck of a harsh curve you are grading on.

  • In reply to Michael Ernst:

    You're right. Those are excellent seasons he had. I am being harsh, although that was 4-5 years ago, and some of those stats do not indicate dominance.
    MWL - 100 innings, 85H, 36BB, 84K.
    CL- 73 innings, 52H, 24BB, 48K.
    2/1 K to W ratio is above average for a starter nowadays, not much more, wouldn't you say?

  • In reply to HefCA:

    And it could be argued those H/IP ratios are elite and dominant. I think everyone agrees with you that after 6 seasons, the expectations for him are very low. I don’t know if he has a future as a starter or reliever. He is probably nothing more than depth in case of major fallout from our rotation. 4-5 years ago he was a guy to be excited about.

  • Thank you Michael. An interesting read about the players who may or may not make the difficult jump from the Minors to the Cubs. Let's hope some of these players put it together and that consistency you mentioned can still become reality.

  • Michael, thanks for this list and for all you do for Cubs Den. I have a question on your use of the 20-80 scouting scale. My understanding is that 50 is average at the MLB level. But it looks like you rate Giambrone's tools as all potentially 50 or higher even though his ceiling is a bench player at best. Are you using the scale in a different way?

  • In reply to October:

    The first number is the current grade and the second number is the potential future value for the player (ex: 45/50). So in the case of Giambrone his current hit and plate discipline tools are fringe average (45) which would not make him starting caliber, at least on a full-time basis. He could certainly reach that level, which is why I rate his ceiling in both categories as 50, but Giambrone is already getting old for a prospect (25) so his time to make improvements is short before his physical peak ends and his skills begin to diminish. He has also been a very streaky performer in his career and weirdly, can't hit lefties. This makes him unlikely in my eye to develop quick enough to become a starter for more than a short time, if ever, but he could have some impact off the bench where at times he provides starter production.

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