Game Post 8/5

cubs-5-padres-4-now-thats-more-like-it

Series preview is here.

Watch/Listen

Sunday: 1:20 pm CT on WGN/670AM

Lineups

Padres

1. Manuel Margot (R) CF
2. Eric Hosmer (L) 1B
3. Hunter Renfroe (R) LF
5. Austin Hedges (R) C
6. Freddy Galvis (S) SS
7. Franmil Reyes (R) RF
8. Jose Pirela (R) 2B
9. Joey Lucchesi (L) P
Cubs
2. Javier Baez (R) 2B
3. Addison Russell (R) SS
4. David Bote (R) 3B
5. Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
7. Victor Caratini (S) 1B
8. Jon Lester (L) P
9. Ian Happ (S) RF
Bullpen Usage
screen-shot-2018-08-05-at-11-05-14-am
screen-shot-2018-08-05-at-11-04-57-am

via Baseball Press.

Opposing pitcher

Scouting Report from Brooks Baseball.

Joey LucchesiJoey Lucchesi has thrown 1,190 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system in 2018, all of them occuring in the MLB Regular Season. In 2018, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (91mph) and Change(80mph). He also rarely throws a Curve (78mph).

His fourseam fastball has heavy sinking action, is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers and has essentially average velo. His change has surprising cut action, dives down out of the zone, generates more whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' changeups, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has slightly below average velo. His curve is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers' curves, has little depth, is slightly harder than usual and has primarily 12-6 movement.

Sean's Note: The rookie Lucchesi has pitched over his head a bit with an ERA a full run below his FIP. He too has fallen victim to the home run ball allowing 13 in just 77 innings pitched. Left handers hit for a higher average, but right handers hit for much more power.

Final Thoughts: The Cubs are going with perhaps their oddest lineup in a couple months. Two struggling hitters Addison Russell and Albert Almora are at the top of the order. Anthony Rizzo gets a day off, after being on fire of late. Jon Lester hasn't been as sharp lately, but against a weaker Padres lineup maybe he can be better.

Comments

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  • Interesting lineup indeed... Contreras is the oldest position player starting today for the Cubs at 26. All others (besides Lester) are between the ages of 23 to 25. How many teams can field a young lineup like that and are in first place?

  • In reply to Cubber Lang:

    No other team could field a line up like this because there is only one Joe Maddon. I like how Maddon gives Rizzo the day off. You don't want your hottest hitter in there.

  • In reply to 2016 Cubs:

    I think we can win even with Rizzo getting a day off with this lineup.

    This lineup is younger than the one the Padres are putting on the filed even.

  • In reply to 2016 Cubs:

    Nobody plays every game of every year. The days of Cal Ripken and Lou Gehrig are past us.

    Do you propose waiting until someone is in a slump or exhausted, then bench them. Or maybe, it is smarter to give someone a day off before they are mentally and physically exhausted?

    Please share the statistical data to back up your criticism of Maddon on resting Rizzo? You may be right, but without data on his historical performance after X number of consecutive games played it seems like another way to complain about Maddon. Maddon does not make these decisions in a vacuum. The analytical team provides data for the team leadership to use on a game by game basis.

  • In reply to Cubber Lang:

    And all are draft picks/IFA signings except Russell, who spent time in our system, and Caratini, who we groomed for so long he may as well be ours. Impressive.

    This is the anniversary of Javy's 2014 debut, though he didn't get into that initial game. Here's wishing for a Happy Anniversary.

    Go Cubs!

  • In reply to BarleyPop:

    Didn’t Javy hit a HR in extras to win the first day. I thought he played on the first day he was up.

  • In reply to stix:

    I think you're right. We know hit the game-planning bomb in extras in Colorado, but a I thought he was up a day earlier. My mistake.

    As for Cubber's prediction, I think Javy went 0-fer with 3 K's earlier in that game, so I'll take the 3 bombs today.

  • In reply to BarleyPop:

    Javy will hit 3 bombs today just to make up for that!

  • In reply to Cubber Lang:

    2 more to go!

  • In reply to stv711:

    At this point I'll settle for 2, and no extra innings.

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    This is why our window is open at least another 6 or 7 years with just the lineup today, and KB is 26 and Rizzo and JHey are 28. The only thing I am concerned about is pitching and our best pitchers are in the low minors, but that will be taken care of in time.

  • Lester definitely isn’t sharp today

  • Lester's last 6 starts counting today have been bad with exception of one start against the D-backs.

  • Ooooooffffffff. Gut shot. Definitely did not need this from Lester with not 1 guy hitting above .255 or an on base above .320. Terrible.

  • Happy cookie day to Cubs fans!

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    This is going downhill very quickly.

  • In reply to Jonathan Friedman:

    It's a new game now ....

  • If that Lucchesi guy ran at half effort he woulda been safe. Not a good look

    Get Lester out the game.The Padres offensively were struggling entering this series and they’re hitting everything & a few balls we’re barreled up real good

  • Baez came off the bag he's gonna be out

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    In reply to bolla:

    They had like 6 outs that inning.

    2 strike outs turned into reached on wild pitches/passed balls and then a WP ties it.

    They are so freaking lucky

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    In reply to Jim Odirakallumkal:

    I meant to reply to the brewers comment

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    Runners are going to learn to keep contact with the base though the whole process of the tag as much as the taggers have learned to keep the tag on.
    I really can’t blame Javy though because of how many times has he tried something like this and was safe and then scored—and that’s why he’s the Most Exciting Man In Basball!

  • In reply to Jonathan Friedman:

    I'll admit it was really fun watching that play go down... even in flames. I gotta say though, it was somewhat of a selfish play by Javy to try and steal 3rd base with 2 outs and the pitcher struggling. I get it, maybe he gets on third and scores on a wild pitch, but Bote has been great, and even at serving up clutch hits. Javy took the bat out of his hands. He easily could've scored on a base hit from 2nd.

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    In reply to Cubber Lang:

    Especially now that the Cubs gave up 5 runs in the top of the 9th. If Javy had scored then and given us the lead who knows what happens.

  • In reply to Jonathan Friedman:

    Very much agree. It’s like we were about to put our foot down on their throat, but decided to give them a hand up, and they took advantage of our good will.

  • Rockies just blew another save. up 4-1 in the 9th

  • In reply to bolla:

    And then I have Cub fans telling me the Phillies are a bigger long term
    Threat lol our fanbase is delusional to how big a threat this team really is I get it the Brewers are unproven and of course our rival fanbase are going to downplay their potential but I'm a very unbiased fan and as much as I Don't want to believe that this brewer team is going to be elite for years I'm not gonna deny what I see just because I may not want to believe that the Cubs are going to have their hands full

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    I think the brewers are the best team in the nl, I’m not gonna discredit them but I also think the cubs can beat them in a series. The cubs have been inconsistent all season and the only thing they’re better than the brewers is offensively and imo the cubs offense is too boom or bust to really hang your hat on that.

  • In reply to bolla:

    Agreed I have the Dodgers and Cubs as the favorites due to starting pitching and experience but I think this Brewers team is elite and not in the same tier as the braves Phillies or dbacks. I also think the Cubs would hands down beat the Brewers in a playoff series we seem to have a bit of a big brother effect on them and I think our starting pitching and experience gives us the advantage in a playoff series. We seem to have their number too

  • Another BB. Another run scored. C’mon Edwards. A 2 our BB?

  • Wow the Brewers have scored 3 run in the 9th to toe Colorado. Strongly disagree with those of you that are taking them lightly based on their run differential that you obtained from your computer. They win close games bc they have an elite bullpen and defense that can keep games close they remind me a lot of those recent Royal teams

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    In reply to kkhiavi:

    Okay, we get it you live w a Brewers fan and its rubbing off on you even though you don't notice it. We get it, you believe they are very dangerous and their future is as bright as ours if not more.

    My opinion is until they have an ACE, I am not going to be frightened or lose sleep

  • In reply to Jim Odirakallumkal:

    Never once said they're better than the Cubs I can have faith in this Cubs team while still acknowledging the Brewers are heading towards being among the 3-4 best teams set up for sustained success in the NL and if they get a TOR starter then who knows how far they can go. I hate the Brewers I'd actually call myself a hater due to my roommate but I'm not gonna lie to myself about their team despite my biases. I don't believe that it's me that has too high of an opinion on them due to watching them win a lot of games this season I think it's many of you that are doubting them because they're 1. Unproven and 2. Rival fans tend to downplay rival teams success as card fans did to the Cubs in 2015. We're not the cards were a much younger team and I can't see anyone overtaking us over the next few years but I think this is about to become the toughest playoff race in the NL were gonna have to earn it now it's been a while since we've had a real threat in the division and no I never regarded the 2015 pirates or cards teams as well built for the playoffs despite their records this Brewers team is better than those groups

  • In reply to kkhiavi:

    What were you saying about that MIL bullpen?

    You can strongly disagree all you want. There is a lot of data and evidence which differs from what your eyes tell you. No one is taking MIL lightly as you replied, but pointing out the Cubs should pull away and win the division. They may beat the algorithm and overtake the Cubs as that is possible. But the likelihood is slim.

  • In reply to rbrucato:

    I believe when you have an elite bullpen, a good offense and defense then that permits you to win a lot of close games as the royals showed us recently and this Brewers team is built a lot like those teams. Look at today's game their starter got flat out pitched yet they have a bullpen that doesn't let the game get out of reach and they've done it all year as much as I love my Cubs the Brewers high leverage relievers are better than the Cubs guys in my opinion even though I'm by no means saying they have a more complete team when healthy. I heard all the same non sense about these team metrics like run differential about the recent royals teams that went on to 2 straight WS because they didn't have a great run differential and all that nonsense the reality is Pythagorean record and run differential are correlated with winning teams no doubt about that but relying on them as your sole analysis isn't strong evidence based analysis teams have won titles despite not having elite run differentials even though of course you like to see a strong differential. I respect your opinion and I think the Dodgers and Cubs are who id have as the favorites to win the pennant but I think this Brewers team is the biggest threat that this current Cubs group have had to overcome within this division. They have pretty much all of their best players controlled for multiple seasons and if they add some starting pitching then they have a chance to compete for WS keep in mind. Said compete. Remember too they're going to get some payroll flexibility once Thames and Ryan Braun are gone and those guys aren't much help to this group anyways. My one question mark with them is will their GM David stearns be able to utilize their limited small market payroll in an efficient manner but he's been good so far and they have pretty good payroll flexibility moving forward keep in mind. I understand that you and many here are cub fans and likely have only seen this team live on tv a limited number of times and it's natural as an opposing fan to be skeptical but I think many of you not only underestimate their talent but how well they play the game from a fundamental standpoint and I've said that since April when most commenters looked at St Louis as our biggest divisional threat. Once again I'm by no means saying I don't see the Dodgers and Cubs as favorites but I would no longer be surprised or ashamed to see this loaded brewer team win the division because we're not the same team without morrow and KB even though the Cubs are my pick given their experience and they should in theory have some nice reinforcements if our 3 injured players return at the end of the month. That's more of a complement to the Cubs then it is a slight to the Brewers though. I have such strong faith in this Cubs group that they're my pick until someone takes it from them but I'm not gonna let my high opinion and love of the Cubs allow me to let my biases downplay the many good things that I see from this Brewers group like cardinal fans did to the Cubs once upon a time in 2015

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    Cubs are fortunate to have tied this game at 5.

    They could easily be down more after all the stupid mistakes.

    Lets get this. We don't quit

  • Wow Rockies are killing me. A catcher interference, dropped third strike and a wild pitch... game tied up now - going to extra innings!

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    I love the Schwarbenator as much as anyone, but why is he starting vs a LEFTY?

    Okay, start him. Why is he taking a key AB vs a lefty late in the game?

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    In reply to Jim Odirakallumkal:

    Well, he was pinch hit for yesterday in a key situation against a lefty, and people complained.

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    In reply to John Winter:

    Why would anyone complain? He has zero power vs lefties? Plus when power is your game, thats a problem. He has 48 rbi's on 20 HRs. I know people like to say RBIs is a team stat, but he's almost always in a run producing spot and 48 rbis is bad

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    In reply to Jim Odirakallumkal:

    If you look at the game post, they did.

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    In reply to John Winter:

    Nobody said your lying, just gave u my answer

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    Two out walk to a .250 hitter. No excuse

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    He didn’t swing at a pitcg

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    Got to give those dirty pads credit for wrestling the lead back when they should have just laid down after we tied it and gave us the WIN !!

    Amazing how you would expect us ( best offense in the NL) to explode w the wind blowing out at home vs a team ( worst in NL offensively so the stats say)

    Crazy how we like to play down to our competition.

  • In reply to Jim Odirakallumkal:

    They play how Maddon manages.

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    Game over.

    Brewers won't blow the game after coming back and tying it.

  • In reply to Jim Odirakallumkal:

    I think this game is a perfect illustration of why the Brewers are winning these types of close games. Not only is their positional player group elite but they have the defense, hitting and bullpen to win these tight games I said it before they're a lot like that Royal team that everyone underestimated because of their lack of TOR starters and because their run differential isn't what you'd expect from a championship team. I for one think the Brewers fit the exact model of previous teams that were legit contenders despite not having an elite run differential I think many here are gonna be disappointed if they're using that type of short cut analysis to make generalizations of what they think about this group. I see them as #3 I
    The snap hands down behind the Cubs and Dodgers but they may close that gap fast if they get back Jimmy Nelson and make a big acquisition or 2 which they can afford given their relatively low payroll

  • In reply to Jim Odirakallumkal:

    And as I say that the Rockies get a 2 out arenado home run cmon lets hold them down

  • This is gonna be a terrible loss

  • I think Rosario has turned into Duensing.

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    In reply to 2016 Cubs:

    Yep I was thinking the same thing. He turned this year

  • I generally dont get too aggravated over games but this one just pissed me the hell off......

  • In reply to Wickdipper:

    Yep, I am pretty salty right now. I am with you Wickdipper!

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    Funny how the worst team in the league comes into our house under favorable conditions for us ( time and wind) and we are lucky to split whereas the Brewers host a borderline 1st place team and are looking to sweep.

    Insane game this baseball sport is !

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    If we come back it would be the greatest of all time! I'm channeling my inner Muhammad Ali--and he was the GOAT.

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    In reply to Jonathan Friedman:

    I like the optimism but no chance.

    Only way is we get like 4 walks and a couple hit batters

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    Thank you Nolan Arenado.

    Now stupid Rocky pen will give it up again, prob 2 runs and walk it off.

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    We all know teams go through hot and cold streaks and post AS game we've been middling so I hope this is our bad period. We need an
    8-10 streak to put some distance between us and Milw. They have a really good team, but so do we.

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    Thank you Nolan ( MVP type swing) as that was a HUGE HR to stop the rocky skid.

    Thank you Oh for shutting those idiots out and covering 1st base somehow for the game ending DP>

  • At least the brewers lost, the cubs struggled way too much vs a padres team that was reeling entering this series

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    In reply to bolla:

    Can’t count on the brewers losing too many more games. We need to go out and win it. Weakness of pitching staff is really starting too show

  • I agree

  • That last strike to Rizzo was right down the middle of the right handers batters box. If that doesn't scream robo ump I don't know what does. Horrible.

  • In reply to 2016 Cubs:

    That was just great frame job by the catcher err I meant umpire.:):):)

  • In reply to 2016 Cubs:

    Angel Hernandez was tired and wanted to go home...

  • I know it is now the dog days but what are we? 9-9 since the break? They played very weak every game of this series against a team that is just bad. Happ, Almora, Schwarber, Russell.......just not gettin’ it done......too few quality starts by the starters and the toll is mounting on the bullpen.
    No one knows the real status of Bryant and Darvish and all we get is smoke blown at us on their near future but we are supposed to just wait and hope we can maintain until they do come back?

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    In reply to Wickdipper:

    It sounds like Darvish will return sooner than KB.

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