Cubs Notes: Carlos Gonzalez and other rumors; Kevin Gregg gets a reprieve

Cubs Notes: Carlos Gonzalez and other rumors; Kevin Gregg gets a reprieve

We'll do some weekend notes and update as appropriate.  It's a busy day in the Arguello household, so I'll do my best to keep up.  But we have some juicy stuff for you on a trade rumor we've reported in the past...

Offseason Chatter: Cargo, Arrieta, Schierholtz, Samardzija

I'm hearing that the Carlos Gonzalez rumor has some legs and that one player the Rockies are interested in is Jake Arrieta.  That makes sense from their standpoint as he is young and cost-controlled, though I don't know how keen the Cubs are to that idea. Does it make sense for the Cubs who lack top level arms and are said to be concerned about some budget constraints?  It's a tough question to answer. Gonzalez is an established star and should produce well even outside of Wrigley.  He fills two needs at once -- OBP and LH power, along with having the kind of athleticism and defensive skills the team prefers.  It's a pretty good fit but only at the right cost -- both in terms of players/prospects and in financial terms.

Also hearing that Nate Schierholtz is a trade candidate, especially if the Cubs do acquire CarGo.  The Cubs also have Ryan Sweeney and Bryan Bogusevic from the left side and both have impressed when given the opportunity this season.

While Jeff Samardzija is considered a core player, he is one the Cubs may consider moving if he still refuses to negotiate.  He is brash and competitive and those type of players tend to get a mixed reaction.  Some love it, but some are put off by it.  In my opinion, the Cubs could use some of these fiery guys who want to win and personally I'd like to keep him, but it may well depend on whether Samardziija is willing to sit down and negotiate an extension.

The Kevin Gregg Saga Ends Peacefully

A good friend of mine is a successful CEO and he once gave me a great piece of advice, which I still use (most of the time).  It went something like this...

"Never make decisions when you are angry or emotional.  Give it 24 hours or at least a night's sleep.  If you are still angry about the next day, then there was probably something to your initial reaction and you should go ahead with what you were going to do.  Most of the time, however, you'll find that it wasn't as big a deal as you thought it was."

I wonder sometimes if Theo operates the same way.  Reports say he was upset at Kevin Gregg's response to using Pedro Strop the same way.  Theo talked to Gregg, slept on it -- and probably now sees it as not such a big deal.  He's keeping Gregg.  At least for the rest of the season.

We'll update as we hear things...

 

Filed under: Rumors/Speculation

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  • Arietta for Cargo, uh, absolutely.

  • In reply to Ike03:

    I think it's more about overall cost than that particular one for one. I also only know that they're interested in him, not sure if anyone else involved..

  • In reply to Ike03:

    To get Gonzalez, I'd toss in both Castro and Rizzo.

  • In reply to Aquinas wired:

    All I can say to that is I'm glad you're not the Cubs GM.

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    In reply to John Arguello:

    Amen to that.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    All I can say is, you must have sat down, taken a few deep breaths, and had a tall beer before you responded!

  • In reply to Quasimodo:

    or 12

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    Amen to that

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    In reply to Aquinas wired:

    engage brain before addressing keyboard.....

  • In reply to Aquinas wired:

    Don't be silly,...

  • I think everyone would be interested in CarGo but as you say John, at what cost.

    IF and I do mean IF, Arrieta is the centerpiece of the deal and the Cubs have to throw in a couple other midling prospects, I would do it in a heartbeat.

    Although Arrieta has looked good at times, I just don't think guys who are wild all of a sudden fine their control. It is very difficult to do. So if we can sell high on Arrieta, I hope they pull the trigger.

    The one concern I have about Cargo are his career splits of home and road. A little bit concerning, though this years numbers are much better.

  • In reply to IrwinFletcher:

    I agree and you're talking to a guy who loves Arrieta's stuff. Have to make deal as long as the secondary pieces aren't too big. Financial cost may be another issue if reports are correct.

  • How ridiculous would it be if FELDMAN!!! ended up netting us our new closer in Strop and our #3 hitter in CarGo? Not too shabby, eh?

  • In reply to HoosierDaddy:

    Way, way too ridiculous :)

  • So, indirectly, the Cubs could turn Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger into an All Star corner outfielder and their closer of the future.

    Just take a moment to think about what Feldman and Clevenger are, what CarGo is, and what Strop can be. Absolutely incredible stuff by Theo and Jed.

  • In reply to Jim Weihofen:

    That would be an amazing set of moves/trades building up to a player like that

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    If Arrieta were in a trade for Gonzalez, he would not be the most valuable piece the Cubs had to give up in the trade.

  • Why would the Rockies be willing to part with cargo? Especially with us? I don't see us giving up the top four prospects for him. Just odd that if this kid is that special and with Helton retiring why they would be willing to part with him.

  • In reply to WaitTilNextYear:

    And that ties into another concern I would have. Agree you can't trade any of the big 4 along with CJ and Pierce Johnson.

    However, assuming even 4 of these 6 make it, they won't have an impact for 3 seasons or so. CarGo would be 31 ish by that time and on the down side of his impact. Is that a risk worth taking at $15Million a year?

  • In reply to IrwinFletcher:

    Vogelbach makes sense for them. He would mash in that place.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    Vogelbach was the name that came to my head too.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    I think it would be a mistake to trade Vogelbach now but if you look at it strictly from the point of view of what's best for V than this could be good for him. Eventually he may be the player that haunts the cubs administration in terms of the future.

  • In reply to IrwinFletcher:

    The only thing I can maybe see is if theo and company think Baez, Bryant, soler, and Almora are closer to being ready. If the cubs pull off a deal like this at a good price, to me it is sending a message that we are ready to challenge for central in 1-2 years.

    If we get cargo, how long is his contract good for?

  • In reply to WaitTilNextYear:

    Cost and I'd say they're further away now in the rebuilding process. They may have to start over a bit.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    Rockies don't think he is someone to build with? Don't know the Rockies farm system. Interesting deal on the Rockies end.

  • For the right packge, would love to see Gonzalez with the Cubs. That said, his home and road splits have to be concerning. Over the past 3 years .260 avg and .314 obp away from Coors.

  • In reply to cubsfan:

    Yes, it's a concern but those rarely play out that literally. I think that was once a concern with Matt Holliday too.

  • Nice move with Kevin Gregg by Theo. I was wondering how receptive potential free agents (incl. Tanaka) would be if Theo had overreactive.

    Oh, and I bet Kevin Greg wishes that he had had more than 15 minutes after his "bad day at the office" before 20 microphones were thrust in his face. Maybe Steve Carlton had it right after all.

    Oh, and BTW, a classy move by Kevin Gregg to take it like a man, stand up, and apologize IN PERSON. No Braun-like press releases, Ian Stewart-like tweets, or big Z's statements through his agent. Still can't believe there's no place in our plans for a guy who put up 32 saves for a last place team.

  • In reply to DropThePuck:

    Agreed. It came off as much more genuine the way he apologized.

  • In reply to DropThePuck:

    I can't imagine that Tanaka would ever hear about anything as insignificant as how Epstein reacted to comments by a minor player on their team.

  • In reply to DaveP:

    Not sure I would consider Gregg's 32 saves as "minor"; actually I have him down as my team MVP. And my concern was how potential FAs would have viewed Theo if he had overreacted and kicked Gregg off the team for an incident that was blown WAY out of proportion and for which Gregg had personally stood up and said "I'm sorry".

  • In reply to DropThePuck:

    Depending on his asking price - IMO it would be silly NOT to make a serious offer to Gregg for a 1 year FA contract.

    He doesn't have the greatest 'stuff' - but he has the right attitude and chutzpah. I mean the guy has a fair number of career saves, and lots of holds.

    Even if you set Strop or Grimm as the closer candidate - there's room in the pen for a guy like Gregg.

  • In reply to drkazmd65:

    Agreed! And isn't there some value in having a guy around who has been around the block a few times? Someone the new kids could look to when things get a little tough and the boo birds come out.

  • What cost concerns? Cubs payroll will be under $70mil going into the off season. I get not wanting a $140 mil payroll but are the cubs so broke they couldn't carry a $105 mil payroll?

  • In reply to Ike03:

    I just said reported cost concerns. I don't know how serious that is. But some of that payroll will go to raises, arbitration, etc.

  • With Helton retiring and no 1B prospect in the wings, I wouldn't be surprised if an Arrieta/Vogelbach package is what the Rox are eyeing. Giving up a high impact bat that will become too expensive for them in the next three years for a potential impact arm and power bat to fill a need in the next 2 years, both very cheap. I think it makes sense on both sides with the cubs already having Rizzo and even Olt and Bryant to move over to 1B.

  • In reply to nmu’catsbball:

    that maybe what they are eyeing but im not sure if the Cubs would go for that. Id rather Cabrera instead of Arrieta if the Roxs would do it

  • In reply to nkniacc13:

    They are reportedly interested in Arrieta though, so that's what I'm going off of. Cabrera has shown much less at higher levels, so I don't think they would be interested at all, except as a third player supplement.

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    Sveum: Savebot, you are my closer, but orders from top demand I let Strop close. It's not what I want, but what they want.

  • Although I'm warm to the idea of acquiring CarGo, I really feel like we're not in a position to be dealing POTENTIAL front-line SP , due to our lack of depth in that suit.

    As bad as the offense has been this year, if we're still taking the "long" view of this rebuild, impact SP needs to be the biggest focus over the next 18 months, whether that means retaining it or acquiring it. Serious offensive help is on the way , internally, quicker, I think , than many of us realize.

    With regard to the SP, look at our divisional rivals, they have some pretty nasty front ends to their respective rotations. STL has Wainwright & Miller plus Wacha $ C Martinez in the pipeline. PIT has Cole & Liriano with Taillon on the way. CIN has Latos, Bailey , and Cueto with Leake developing nicely. We need to position ourselves in that group fast. We'll have the sticks.

    Back to original point, go get CarGo but try to use different pieces.

  • We can't depend on all young players coming up to carry an offensive load. And that means castro and rizzo as well. They are only 23, and I think for the right price, he could be that veteran bat for the young guys to lean on for the next 3+ years. He will still be 29-31, in prime years, when our big names hit the bigs. Takes pressure off of them and gives them a mentor who is and has been the all around impact ball player you want them to become.

  • In reply to nmu’catsbball:

    Exactly

  • In reply to nmu’catsbball:

    Rizzo turned 24.

  • In reply to Oneear:

    Yes, but this is Rizzo's age 23 season.

  • Here is the rest of CarGo's contract:
    2014 28 $10,500,000
    2015 29 $16,000,000
    2016 30 $17,000,000
    2017 31 $20,000,000

    After next year that is beyond Soriano money! Unless Colorado is willing to eat some of that contract the way we are going to eat Soriano's I think this is going in the wrong direction.

  • In reply to good4you:

    Those are prime career years. Soriano's deal didn't even start until he was 31. And I would have gladly paid Soriano for his 07, 08, 09, and 2010 years

  • In reply to Ike03:

    Exactly!

  • On the surfact Cargo for an Arrieta centered deal seems like a no brainer, but I am not so sure. I have had Cargo in my keeper fantasy baseball league since he came up, and I kid you not he is hurt every August and September. It's like clock work with him, he tears it up in June and July, but as the season winds down in August he has all kinds of nagging injuries that keep him out for weeks. Every year it's the same with him. Not sure he could be counted on when the Cubs finally are in the playoffs.

  • In reply to Justin:

    Interesting. I too am in a keeper league and so you really tend to follow your players throughout the season and therefore have a unique point of view.

    Looking at it, here are career highs in games played for Cargo

    145, 135 and 127.

    Something to think about....

  • fb_avatar
    In reply to IrwinFletcher:

    That and his career splits away from Coors would make me tread very lightly on this

  • In reply to IrwinFletcher:

    Right, I know it's stupid some times to compare fantasy to real life, but I have followed Cargo very closely because of the fantasy factor. No one gets hotter than Cargo, which is usually early in the summer, but he can't keep it up to the end of yr. Plus that finger injury he had this yr that ended his season is suppose to be very serious and may never heal right. I try to stay away from Cargo if I am the Cubs..

  • I'm hearing Cargo may need surgical-pin repair of his finger-tendon injury. Trader beware.

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    In reply to TobaccopouchinIvy:

    Good to see you on here. I saw the message you left for me last week. Always nice to bump into an old friend. Good info about Cargo, I hadn't heard that yet, but his injury history and his splits scare me off to begin with...

  • In reply to Mike Partipilo:

    Hi Mike, glad to see you here for your expertise! This a a great, well-balanced forum & John's insight mirrors what the FO is doing thru building from bottom-up.

  • fb_avatar

    If it was straight up, 1-for-1 i'd do Gonzalez-Arrieta. Albeit very reluctantly. However, if we have to kick in more pieces with Arrieta AND take back all the salary I walk away. I love Arrieta's stuff and the potential is just too good to give up right now.

    Potential TOR starters are harder to find than middle of the order hitters(even though they don't grow on trees either). Were desperately lacking arms like Arrieta. We have plenty of good hitting prospects coming up through the minors. I want to gamble on them.

  • With Rizzo looking less than stellar, I hate to give up on Vogelbach. If Rizzo duplicates this year's production next year, it might be time to look elsewhere. I like Rizzo, but at first base, the bat needs to be a decisive middle of the lineup masher. I am afraid Rizzo might not have enough.

  • In reply to Illini88:

    Copy that. 1000 mlb at bats .237 avg and it's not going up.

  • Ken Rosenthal posted a video today where he talked about big name players being traded in the off-season and he led with Gonzalez. He has the Rangers interested and dangling Profar, which is obviously a much bigger piece than Arrieta. I think the Cubs could beat that price, but I actually hope they don't.

    Rosenthal did not mention the Cubs in the Gonzalez segment, but did bring them up when talking about David Price. Again, he thinks the Rangers have been eyeing Price and that the Cubs don't have the young pitching it would take to get him.

    http://msn.foxsports.com/video/MLB?vid=78497c14-d876-4ec4-86b4-06954070b403

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    In reply to North Side Irish:

    Only thing with Profar, Rockies are pretty set at SS.

    If I am the Rockies GM, I would be asking for Baez or Bryant. Either one would hit a billion HRs in Colorado....

  • i think that some people are overlooking why the cubs want to acquire cargo in the first place. he is a good player, an absolute wonderful talent, but he is so much more than that for a franchise like the cubs right now.

    1. not only is he left handed, but he brings the OBP skills that this ball club is in dire need of.

    2. not only does he provide lineup protection for rizzo and castro, but he also is used to carrying a lineup and being viewed as a star player. if he came here he would take some of that pressure off of rizzo and castro which will allow them to focus more on the game and less on the bs.

    3. he's someone for the casual fans to get excited about and will help in putting some butts in the seats. i know a lot of us here get excited when arrieta has a good game but most fans dont even know who he is or what ttype of potential he has. on the other hand cargo is a name known throughout baseball.

    i think that if t/j and co. think that his bat will play away from coors and they can get a fair deal for him then i am all for it. vogelbach should definitely be involved and i think a guy like vitters would have the potential to do fairly well at coors, of course those are secondary pieces, im not sure what the prize of the trade would have to be for them.

  • I submit that CarGo for Arrieta is a no-brainer. I can't imagine Rox do that staight up. Top 4 of course, are off the table. But how 'bout Arrieta and Alcantara? With Baez targeted for 2B, we can afford to give up Alcantara, no?

    LF CarGO
    CF Almora
    RF Soler
    3B Bryant
    SS Castro
    2B Baez
    1B Rizzo/Vogelbomb

    It's Murder's Row!

    Like Jake's upside potential, but alas I think he'll always be too darn inconsistent.

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    In reply to Nondorf:

    Completely agree. CarGo is a bona fide star who would instantly give the Cubs offense the opportunity to be average next year (and I honestly think that's not an overstatement).

    Arrieta's got TOR ceiling but is a more likely 4/5 or late inning reliever.

    But that said, I'm not convinced the Rockies would even consider if we offered that trade straight up. I think it would have to be something like Arrieta, Vogelbach, and Schierholtz, which in my opinion, would still be 200% worth it.

  • In reply to Nondorf:

    Yes, that is a potential murderers row. Probably wouldn't be at peak production until 2016. To project to next year, if Olt regains form, Baez is readyt by June, and CarGo is in left, wouldn't that account for about 50-60 more runs? (If Castro and Rizzo perform more towards their mean).
    July 1st...
    Castro
    Lake/Sweeney
    Cargo
    Baez
    Rizzo
    Olt
    Schierholtz
    Castillo

    Seems to me this could be a decent line-up for next year, and could reek havoc in 2015 with the addition of Bryant.

  • While it might be a tantalizing idea, I don't think it is a wise move. His contract scares the crap out of me. We've seen time and again that in the long term players never live up to the value of their contracts. All you have to do it look at Soriano.

    Furthermore, his deal is based on playing 81 games in Denver. How does that contract and his numbers really translate in Wrigley Field? I don't think it does.

    According to ESPN his 3-year (2010-2012) stat line shows he doesn't do well in Wrigley Field. In 28 ABs at Wrigley, his slash line is .250 .276 .607 .883. That's not a very good average or OBP. Additionally, in those 28 ABs in Wrigley, he had 7 strikeouts.

    In addition, his slash line (.260 .314 .433 .747) away from Coors Field suck. So I really think he is a Coors Field player.

    For those slash lines you want the Cubs to give up prospects and pay this guy $11 to $20 million over the next 5 seasons. No Thank You!

  • In reply to JeffK:

    Dumb on so many levels

  • In reply to Ike03:

    Do tell how my comments are dumb on so many levels?

  • In reply to JeffK:

    1 - he has 4 years left, not 5

    2 - ridiculously small sample size for at bats at Wrigley

    3 - his ops at Wrigley is .883 which is very good even if you do look at those at bats

    4 - furthermore, his career ops away from Coors would still land him in the top 10 of outfielders this year. So even taking away his best stats, he's still a very good player.

  • In reply to Ike03:

    Getting Cargo seems risky to me.

    1. His away from Colorado stats are very pedestrian.
    2. He is owed $63,500,000.00 over the next 4 years, while that is not insurmountable it still is pretty high.
    3. I am not sure we are in the situation where we should be trading prospects just yet. I think we have too many holes.
    4. As the fantasy league players noticed, he gets hurt every year and true to form he is out now.
    5. Why is Colorado trying to trade him now? What do they know that no one else knows? Do they think he isn't worth the money? Who knows?

    But I trust Theo, and if he trades for him, I am OK with it.

  • In reply to Ike03:

    Add to that his division includes some of the toughest hitting parks in the majors.

  • In reply to JeffK:

    I wouldn't draw too strong a conclusion from those Wrigley stats. Very small sample. Split never translate that literally either. I think he'd be fine. I'm more worried about what they'd give up to get him.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    That's what Cubs fans have said before and none of the high priced trades similar to that being suggested with CarGo have never worked out. I'm just not of a fan of this suggested trade. It doesn't fit the "build through the farm system" plan that has been sold to the fans for the past two years.

    Also, just because the Cubs trade for him doesn't mean or guarantee they will be instant contenders or even competitive.

  • In reply to JeffK:

    That's cool. You're not the only that's not crazy about the idea. I'm open to the idea depending on the cost. I think he'll hit well outside of Coors, but nobody knows for sure.

  • In reply to JeffK:

    How'd the Aramis Ramirez trade pan out? Derrick Lee? Most prospects don't pan out but for some reason people think the cubs have 10 future hall of famers just waiting to be called up

  • In reply to Ike03:

    Well Ramirez was 2 years younger than Gonzalez is currently. For all of his offensive numbers Ramirez was often hurt and he wasn't the best defensively. Then when it came crunch time he was a no show in the playoffs, so in the long run Ramirez wasn't worth the money paid.

    Speaking of injuries, CarGo is hurt at least once a season for extended periods and his latest injury may require surgery to repair. So, I don't see him being able to stay healthy for the Cubs. Do we want another situation like Ian Stewart?

    John57 brings up some very good questions. Why is Colorado trying to trade him now? What do they know that no one else knows? Do they think he isn't worth the money?

    I don't believe CarGo is worth the money.

  • With cargos contract. And where the cubs stand right now I hope we don't trade for him. Let's sign a cheap vet and wait for the young guys to get here and go from there.

  • In reply to CubfanInUT:

    Can this franchise afford another 2 years of 100+/- losses?

  • In reply to tharr:

    Well they can't loss 100 this year because there aren't enough games left. What guarantee is there that getting CarGo is going to cause the Cubs to win anymore games? NONE!

  • In reply to JeffK:

    If WAR is correct they will win 5 more games then they would without him.

  • JSHMoran's analysis Was the best in the thread - very well put. I'm a a saber-douche who started subscribing to BA in the 80's ; I get the rebuild & I'm fully in board with what they're trying to do. That being said, they need to start taking some steps to energize the fan base. I'm not suggesting that they abandon course, by any means but they can't be too dogmatic, any longer.

  • With the plan the only top minor leaguers I would trade would be Volgy and Alacantra and possibly Olt. I would like to see Olt next year before I traded him because the head injury may never get better.

  • The most concerning thing to me would be the injury history, especially the current finger injury that is expected to require surgery. Seems like a "touchy" problem that could negatively impact his hitting in a pretty big way, but I'm no doctor. That's probably the reason we are hearing his name brought up in trade rumors. The home/road splits would rank second. If the Cubs are very comfortable that the finger will heal and be of no future concern, then and only then would I want to see them deal for Cargo.

  • fb_avatar

    Previously, you could count me in as part of the 'No' on Gonzalez camp. That was based on cost in prospects. And the fact that I'm confident Almora has a high floor and Bryant profiles better in right field. Soler is still a huge wildcard, too.
    In addition, I'm all for stockpiling arms. We're a position heavy system. So, ultimately trading Arrieta isn't my thing.
    But Arrieta for CarGo?
    Psh. Even I make that trade. Arrieta is unreached projection.
    Gonzalez is a proven slugger that helps the team win in the both short and long term.

  • Who's going to be rooting extra hard for Jake Arrieta in his last start?? Package that in a heartbeat! Arrieta/Vogelbach/Candelario? Arrieta/Schierholtz/Alcantara? All day long. I'm extremely leery of shipping one of the big four for CarGo but when push comes to shove we need better players. Twenty four and youngers can't carry a team to the promised land. The team needs a couple of 27-32 yr old grown ass men in there to carry most of the load and let all the "kids" ploish off their development at the big league level. I think 2013 is the perfect example of what can happen to a team when your 2 best hitters coming into the season are 23 years old.

    I'm most excited/nervous to see Arodys Vizcaino get underway in the AFL. He's such a huge X factor.

  • In reply to Ben20:

    "I'm most excited/nervous to see Arodys Vizcaino get underway in the AFL. He's such a huge X factor."

    The Viz is no longer going to the AFL.

    "Chicago also announced Thursday that pitcher Arodys Vizcaino will not play in the Arizona Fall League, either. Vizcaino, acquired in July 2012 in the deal that sent Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson to the Braves, has yet to pitch for the Cubs because he has been rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander will participate in the Cubs' instructional league, which gets underway next week in Mesa, Ariz., instead of the AFL."

    http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130919&content_id=61093212&notebook_id=61110952&vkey=notebook_chc&c_id=chc

  • In reply to Quedub:

    Right now you can't count on viz. Hope he is healthy. If he is healthy that is like finding one more present under the tree that you didn't see on Xmas morning.

  • "I think 2013 is the perfect example of what can happen to a team when your 2 best hitters coming into the season are 23 years old"

    I wholeheartedly agree with this statement as a general rule. That's the type of production that can happen when you rely on such young players to be such huge parts of your team (see numerous previous royals teams).

    This year's roster obviously had other holes that prevented it from being successful, but relying on sub 26 year old players for the majority of your production is folly.

  • I'm still a no go on CarGo. Injuries, contract, no more Coors Field, not the greatest timing in the rebuild, and injuries.

    While he does get on base, his IsoD is basically league average (especially away from Coors). Plus, his K/BB ratio away from Coors has been worse than at home every year. In 2011, his K/BB ratio at Coors was 1.65, away 3.0. In 2012, Coors 1.73, away 2.44. This year, Coors 2.3, away 3.8. He's likely seeing a lot more breaking balls away from home because they actually bend at lower altitudes and not doing very well at recognizing them.

    Matt Holliday's success since leaving the Rockies has been used as an example as to why CarGo's away splits aren't all that meaningful. First off, let's recognize that Holliday is a better hitter than CarGo. Unlike Gonzalez, Matt Holliday's K/BB ratios while with Colorado were basically the same home or away. Also Holliday's away numbers weren't nearly as bad as CarGo's. Road OPS's for Holliday's last three seasons in Colorado: .819, .860, .892. Improving every year. For CarGo over his last four years: .775, .757, .706, and then .987 this year in 210 road PA. Notice, they were all declining until this injury-shortened season. Is his 2013 season an outlier or a sign of things to come?

    For what it's worth, after leaving Coors, Holliday only had two seasons in which his OPS was noticeably better at home (2013 & 2009) than on the road while every year in Colorado there was a huge difference. Also, his OPS in his last 3 seasons in Coors (.973, 1.012, .947) were never as good after leaving Colorado (.902, .922, .912, .877, .861). In fact, if you follow the progression of Holliday's road OPS while a Rockie and his overall OPS after leaving, they basically follow the expected curve relative to his age (.819, .860, .892,.902, .922, .912, .877, .861).

    All of this leads to two likely conclusions: 1) There is clearly a Coors Field effect, and 2) Road splits away from Coors, at least in Holliday's case, are decent predictors.

    Certainly a good case can be made for acquiring him at the right price, but whether the Rockies are willing to meet that price is another matter. They have plenty of reasons to be a motivated seller. He's about to get more expensive. He may have a lingering finger injury and fingers wrap around bats which are used to try to hit baseballs. And over the last 3 Septembers combined, he's had a total of 111 plate appearances. These all seem like good reasons to trade a guy. Are there enough good reasons to acquire him?

  • I would still like to wait on Vogelbach and Rizzo. I'm not entirely convinced Rizzo is the answer at first base and Vogelbach needs another year to be sure he is the answer at first. Its too soon to judge V.

  • I would still like to wait on Vogelbach and Rizzo. I'm not entirely convinced Rizzo is the answer at first base and Vogelbach needs another year to be sure he is the answer at first. Its too soon to judge V.

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