Took a bit of a break as we fully focused on what Theo Epstein said were the most important days for the Cubs of the year.
So let me weigh in on the Cubs first pick a bit. The Cubs by selecting Kris Bryant, placed the surest bet in what is ultimately a huge crapshoot known as the MLB draft.
Regarding the draft, there was so much great work and analysis done here by John. We all have put more and more emphasis on the draft since this regime took over. It’s all about building around here, and the draft is one huge part of the equation. I found myself immersed enough to almost forget about the big club for a bit (not a terrible thing sometimes).
It really is not for everyone to have even a semblance of knowledge regarding any of these players past the first round. That is OK. That is what some of you come here to learn about. However, the MLB draft is quite possibly the biggest craphsoots of them all.
Joe Sheehan reminded me just how much that is true, and to be patient with some of the players drafted.
"We focus on the rockets like Stephen Strasburg and Michael Wacha, but on balance It takes a while for drafted players to reach the majors. Two years ago, the draft was still 50 rounds long, so you had more than 1500 players picked. Of the ones who signed, just 11 have reached the majors, and they've combined for 1.8 Wins Above Replacement. Two years out, that draft has had essentially no impact on the league.
That being said, I like letting the Cubs future ride with Theo and Jed Hoyer rolling the dice. Some polished college hitters taken at the top of the draft can come pretty quickly. Bryant’s plate approach gives me hope he can fit that bill.
My original thought was the Cubs simply couldn’t pass on either Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray. Gray was a tantalizing prospect. He would have been a huge boost to the system that doesn’t really have an apparent ace in the making.
This pick was ultimately was too important for this organization to miss on. Hopefully they won't be picking this high ever again. Under much pressure they made the safer pick, the right pick.
From what we heard, Bryant was in the Cubs picture all along. However, I believe he made his move past Gray somewhat recently. Did the Adderall thing play in? Possibly, but I think in the end it was just a philosophy winning out (hitters are the surer move up top like Theo preached).
Gray could be an ace one day soon, and he could also be a Tommy John surgery waiting to happen.
Even if Gray pans out, if Byant and Jorge Soler are wreaking havoc in the middle of the line up in a couple of years we won't regret much. Bryant just adds to a system that seems to have built up enough equity in young hitters, that it can withstand some inevitable failure, and still boast a dynamic young line up.
One last nugget, the other day I saw a tweet that predicted a future Cubs outfield of Bryant, Soler, and Almora.
Everyone is trying to change Bryant's position already. See, he was meant to be a Cub.
Filed under: Uncategorized