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Garza a perfect fit for Yanks, but are Yanks a fit for the Cubs?

Garza a perfect fit for Yanks, but are Yanks a fit for the Cubs?

Matt Garza is everything the Yankees want.  He has #2 starter stuff.  He has experience in the AL East.  He knows how to handle big city media. He has an extra year of control, which gives the Yankees the option of recouping lost talent with a draft pick, yet he's not so long term that he hinders their long term plan to balance their budget.

In fact, sources have said that Garza is #1 on the Yankees list.

So what's the problem?

The problem is the Yankees farm system doesn't match up with what the Cubs need.  They are strong in position players with C Gary Sanchez and OFs Mason Williams and Tyler Austin.  If and when Albert Almora signs the Cubs will have as many as 4 top 50 position player prospects in Almora, Jorge Soler, Brett Jackson, and Javier Baez.  They have two players at 22 years old who bat in the 2nd and 3rd spots in their lineup in Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo.  Then there's Josh Vitters, Junior Lake, Welington Castillo, and Matt Szczur who all have the potential to be starting MLB players.

That's not to say the Cubs would turn down the opportunity to get impact players like Sanchez, Austin or Williams, but after seeing the Cubs scratch for starters beyond Garza, Ryan Dempster, Travis Wood, Jeff Samardzija and (occasionally) Paul Maholm, it's obvious their need is young impact starters.  They will trade Dempster, who is 36 and isn't part of the team's long term plans anyway.  Maholm also isn't likely part of their long term plans.  So if they trade Garza, they need to get young pitching back.  And not just young pitching, but guys with impact potential.

A couple of years ago, LHP Manny Banuelos and RHP Delin Betances seemed untouchable.  Now Banuelos has been hurt and nobody wants to trade top talent for Betances, who is averaging about a walk per inning.  Banuelos is still the better prospect if healthy and it helps that he's lefty, but do the Cubs really want to trade a top starter with an extra year of control for a question mark?

The Yankees most intriguing pitching prospect of all may be Jorge Campos, who like Sanchez, Austin and Williams, is at low Class A Charleston this season.  Campos sits at 92-95 mph with his fastball and can reach 98.  He has that intangible feel for pitching that Tim Wilken prefers and he has two other potential plus pitches in his curve and change.   He also has good control considering he doesn't turn 20 for 3 more weeks.  He's far away, but he's a legit frontline prospect.

The bad news is Campos has been out since May with elbow inflammation.  Campos and Banuelos, the only real impact starting prospects in the Yankees system, have combined for less than 50 innings this year.

The only other alternative the Yankees would have to offer in terms of pitching are young MLB'ers like Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, and David Phelps, but Hughes and Nova are part of the Yankees rotation and Hughes is the only one with mid-rotation stuff or better.  At any rate, it's doubtful the Yankees want to part with any healthy starting pitchers from their MLB rotation.

Both teams have the desire, and probably the need, to make a deal here, but there may not be a great fit in terms of the Cubs acquiring the kind of potential impact pitchers they so desperately need to get in return for Garza.

Filed under: Rumors/Speculation

Tags: Matt Garza

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  • If they have hitters to trade maybe getting a 3rd team involved
    is the answer. With them being hurting for pitching Theo/Jed
    should try there best to make this happen.

  • In reply to emartinezjr:

    Maybe, but 3 team deals are very difficult to pull off. One team usually gets the short end of the stick in terms of talent.

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    Proposed 3 team trade that will never happen, but is fun to think about.

    Cubs get: Jamison Taillon

    Pirates get: Mason Williams, Gary Sanchez and Ryan Dempster

    Yankees get: Matt Garza and Shawn Camp/Carlos Marmol/James Russell

    Who says no? I sure as hell don't!

  • In reply to James Knott:

    Yanks don't want any part of Marmol, my guess is they'd want Russell from that trio.

    Interesting scenario.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    if taillon was the bryce harper/mike trout of pitching prospects i would consider doing this deal, but he isnt and the cubs cant give up demp, garza and possibly the best bp arm we have without getting a lot more than just one pitcher. he could very well be a bust. he could get hurt, anything could happen. we'd need at least 5 prospects in this deal, unless we were getting 2 or 3 guys on the jurickson profar level. gary sanchez and jorge campos would definitely have to be in this deal us.

  • In reply to jshmoran:

    Oh I agree...I'm not saying it works as is. Just interesting from setting a parameters standpoint. Cubs will want multiple prospects in any deal they make.

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    In reply to John Arguello:

    The Pirates could throw in Stetson Allie for comedic effect.

  • In reply to James Knott:

    Really??? You think trading the top 2 pieces the Cubs have for one prospect is a good deal? Try throwing in Banuelos and Campos for starters before even considering.

  • In reply to JeremyR:

    I'm assuming he was laying out basic parameters but yes, the Cubs would need to get more than one player here, though Tallion is a legit #1 starter prospect, so I don't know how much more they can get. Balancing out deals with 3 teams is really challenging, which is why they rarely happen.

    If Yanks end up giving up those two pitchers in addition, then it's the Yankees who are giving up (depending on health) 2 to 4 top 50 prospects.

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    In reply to John Arguello:

    Your correct I was.

  • In reply to James Knott:

    The Cubs are getting too little for what they are giving up and the Yankees are getting too much for what they are giving. The trade would be a good one with the Yankees just getting Garza and the Cubs getting a 10-20 Pirate prospect in addition to Taillon.

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    In reply to Moonlight:

    The Yankees are giving up two of their top prospects. Mason Williams is a pretty darn prospect.

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    In reply to James Knott:

    good*

  • In reply to James Knott:

    Umm....

    The Cubs say no to that deal. No matter how good you think Taillon is, Cubs need prospectS. Plural. as in multiple.

    Oh and Ryan Dempster probably says no to that deal to. Does have 10 and 5 rights and I doubt he says yes to a team going to a first year playoff contender.

    It's very creative. I like the thinking. But the Cubs haul has to contain at least two commas, maybe 3 or 4, especially if they're giving up three assets.

  • I think with Garza, the Cubs should only deal for a SUPERIOR DEAL, wait till the last minute, and feel just fine about keeping him.
    There's always the offseason..Cubs are in a position of strengh and must extract all they can get for him and MORE.
    John, your thoughts?

  • In reply to rakmessiah:

    Absolutely. Cubs can't afford to get a non-impact talent here. If not, nothing wrong with keeping Garza and building rotation around him Wood and Samardzija.

  • Absolutely right on Garza. With Dempster his age means he's not in the Cubs future plans so they should get whatever they can for him. But Garza can be used as a trade chip or as part of the future

  • In reply to Teddy KGB:

    They have that flexibility with Garza, though I think they end up trading him. I think some team will step up. He has more value because of that extra year than any pitcher out there -- even Greinke or Hamels.

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    For the Yankee to get Garza they'd gave to give Banuelos, Campos, and Phil Hughes to balance out the bust potential of the first two. I'm sure they won't make that deal. If somehow we could pry garret Cole or Tallion from the pirates along with another piece or so I'd consider this entire season a success. Those two are as potential #1 impact starter as you can get.

  • I don't follow the Yankees prospects very closely, but Sanchez, Austin, and Williams are all putting up really good numbers this year. It will be interesting to see how they adjust to the FSL over the next few weeks.

    In regard to a return for Garza, it would be great to get pitching but I hope the front office focuses more on getting the best package of players rather than the best pitching available. They should load up on prospects and let the position battles sort themselves out in the next few years. Any surplus of hitting can always be flipped later if better pitching is available.

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    I should clarify by saying I don't think 2014 is the end all, be all, you obviously continual to stockpile for the future as well to create a period of "sustained success", but I think the Cubs should begin to seriously try to start contending by 2014.

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    With Wood getting turned around and pitching very well lately and Samardizja on the rebound, with Garza that would form a pretty decent big 3. That may be reason to keep Garza as you said John unless they get really, really good value for him. In a couple of years you allow castro and rizzo to mature and throw in possibly vitters, jackson, castillo, Lake or sczrur and you might have the pieces of a contending team there if you continue to supplement with other team's throw aways and maybe get lucky with a few. Even if not i think if you get at least 2 out of the 5 (vitters, jackson, castillo, sczrur, and Lake) (hopefully at least 3 out of 5) who are productive big league players in 2014 (which I think is entirely possible), and then if you can add 1 or 2 more good starter and reliever each you have a pretty tough team. This is also counting on Castro to be a stud and Rizzo to be solid as well. You have at least 5 stud offensive players then with a rotation of
    Samardizja, Garza, Wood, and add a few pieces. By then also some of our bullpen prospects will hopefully have materialized like Cabrera or Zsych. I think you don't trade Garza unless it's for some legit prospects that can possibly also help out by 2014 also. I really think you can't keep waiting forever to make a run at this. Players get injured, get old quick and too expensive, etc. We need to make a run at this by 2014 while we have this legit crop of position player prospects coming up before we start losing some of them. And why not? we may as well take our stab at it. I think by 2014 we should seriously start trying to compete and trading all of these guys should be done at least partially with that in mind.

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    In reply to Gary Kueper:

    I agree with this post completely and feel the same way. Only difference is if somebody comes to us before the deadline with a package we can't refuse for Garza I jump on it.

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    In reply to Marcel Jenkins:

    yes I agree. just needs to be for some legit guys (at least 2), not a few question marks.

  • What about Arizona intermsof teir pitching prospects? Anything there? Would they be a better match with the CYankees in terms of a three team deal?

  • In reply to pricewriter:

    They'd be a better match, they have some real nice pitching prospects, but I don't see them trading their elite guys like Bauer, Bradley or Skaggs. I know the Cubs really ilked Bradley in this year's draft. Would have been interesting if he were available. I think they would have taken him over Baez.

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    I've thought for a while now that the Yankees weren't a great fit. They simply don't have the pitching prospects we need.

  • In reply to Michael Caldwell:

    Not a great fit though in the end I think the Cubs will take the team that gives them the most talent...that said, I hope that involves pitching.

  • Non-related: Cashner hurt his latissimus dorsi. I love his arm but he may not be built for SP role. It seems like a difficult transition for RP to turn into a SP.

    John, I thought I read somewhere that Toronto and San Diego had the deepest farm systems. I know Toronto's prospects have taken a few hits, but would San Diego have some prospects in a 3 team deal? Or is it just not feasible with San Diego's short term outlook to even consider them. You'd have to think Hoyer and McLeod know that farm system very well.

  • In reply to Greg Shuey:

    Toronto looking to make a deal or an average-ish pitcher. They're more likely to want to deal for Maholm than Dempster or Garza. And we won't get any of the good stuff for Maholm.

    SD thinking long term the way the Cubs are. They won't trade prospects for a veteran.

  • I still think the team that matches up the best is the Tigers. They are in a win now mode, they need a quality veteran starter. They have several good options at starting pitching in the minors and they have the 3B in Castellanos who would be there for years with the Cubs. And he is blocked by Cabrera. He was flirting with .400 earlier this year in the minors.
    Questions for you guys. If the Cubs can't get a quality young prospect this year for Dempster, is it feasible to keep him and give him a qualifying offer of 12.5 million next year? He takes a longer deal elsewhere, the Cubs get a first round draft pick for him. He takes the deal, he pitches next year and maybe you get a better offer then.
    And is it crazy for the Cubs to look to sign big time free agents this coming off season and the next. The reason I look at it that way, they are going to have a top ten pick next year in the draft and probably the year after. So they won't have to give that pick up if they sign a big time free agent. Window of opportunity.
    This year you have guys like Hamels, Greinke and Josh Hamilton. Next year Josh Johnson, Lincecum, Jason Hammell, Ellsbury.
    Don't the Cubs have to use all avenues to build a better club.
    If anything I am making a case for finding a way to extend Garza also if they can't get a great package of players.

  • I think that's the fallback, but Depmster's value is at an all time high.

  • I agree. I like the Dempster idea a lot, as long as they don't get a solid offer this year.

    I was also really thinking they would go after Greinke or Hamels this offseason. To get one of those guys a team is going to have to give at least 5 years on a contract, which would put them right in the window of when we should compete. Guys like Greinke and Hamels are young, legit aces with the chance to win a Cy Young any given year. Guys like that are not available often, much less two of them in the same offseason. I was kind of assuming the Cubs would go after one of them, I think it's a mistake if not.

  • A lot can happen between now and July 31st. I'd be surprised if the Cubs traded Garza or Dempster much before that date.

  • How about Cubs,LAD, and NYY in a three-teamer?

    Cubscould send Demp to LA, Garza to NY, NY sends position prospects to LA, and LA sends Lee, Webster and another piece or two our way.

    LA's system seems a little too tilted towards arms and NY's a bit too bat-heavy.

    Just starting a discussion point. Somebody should address the obvious STL match. I don't think Theo is scared by prospect of dealing with Moz, despite intra-division issue.

  • In reply to Carl9730:

    I don't think LA has enough pitching prospects considering the two guys the Cubs will give up.

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    Non-thread Related: John, should what the Astros got for Carlos Lee be considered a floor for what the Cubs.might get for Soriano?

  • In reply to Michael Caldwell:

    I think it's reasonable to expect something similar, a top, former talented top prospect who has has fallen on hard times.

  • Different contract situations: Lee is done after this season. Cubs are gonna try to save SOME $. I think we'd get less than that, personally.

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    If the Cubs are eating that salary, there is no way they'll get less for Sori

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    Recruit trader Jack McKeon to help us work out a 3 team trade. (although I think he's still with the Marlin's front office?) Some of the deals he made in the 1980's and 90's were outstanding, and among the largest trades in MLB history.

    Here's a great story from 1990 about how much he wanted to trade for Dwight Smith:

    http://articles.latimes.com/1990-03-31/sports/sp-125_1_dwight-smith

  • Would hate to see Maholm go. I know we only signed him for 1 yr deal, would've been nice to get him for an extra year. I know he's not great, but he's perfect 3-4 pitcher. I would really hate for someone in our division (STL) to pick him up next year and see him dominate.

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