What does the Matt Cain deal mean for Matt Garza and the Cubs?

What does the Matt Cain deal mean for Matt Garza and the Cubs?

In case you missed it today, Matt Cain signed the richest deal of any RHP in baseball: 6 years and $127M.

The Cubs meanwhile are nearing a crossroads with their own staff ace Matt Garza.  Now, Garza hasn't been as productive as Cain has been to this point but last year was something of a breakthrough for him.  In fact, it was very similar to Cain's year.  At this point, Garza may be thinking that if he has a big year in 2012, he may be in line for a pretty big payday himself.

The most comparable pitcher to Garza statistics-wise over his career is White Sox lefty John Danks, who recently signed for 5 years and $65M.  But Garza has better stuff and had much better peripheral numbers than Danks did last year.  If you were to pick a pitcher to take another step forward, you'd have to pick Garza.

So if you're Garza, do you choose the safe route and get Danks money now or roll the dice and see if you can have a big year and earn even more?

For the Cubs, the choice is similar.  They can try and sign him now or wait until the trade deadline.  If he struggles, then he loses value but the Cubs can re-sign him cheaper.  If he does well, his price goes up and the Cubs may try and trade him for the best offer at the deadline -- though they'd have to trade him to a bigger market team with realistic hopes of re-signing him to get the best return, in my opinion.

For teams looking in the short term, the 28 year old Garza must look like a bargain right now when you compare his 2011 stats to the 27 year old Cain...(see stat glossary for explanation)

FIP

Cain 2.91

Garza 2.95

xFIP

Cain 3.78

Garza 3.19

WAR

Cain 5.2

Garza 5.0

BB/9

Cain 2.56

Garza 2.86

K/9

Cain 7.27

Garza 8.95

They're almost mirror images of each other for 2011, but if you go over the past few years then Cain has been the more consistent pitcher.  He had put up WARs between 3.3 and 4.0 over the previous 5 years -- very good, but certainly not elite.  They are obviously counting on him sustaining this new level as he reaches his peak performance years.

Garza is a year older but doesn't have the same track record.  While he had 3 WAR years in 2008-2009, it dropped to 1.6 in 2010. However, another 5 WAR year and he can certainly make an argument that he belongs closer to Cain territory than he does Danks.  We know his agent will.

In the end, the biggest difference is between the teams themselves.  The Giants have averaged 88.5 wins the last 3 years and won the World Series in 2010.  They have a young star in RHP Tim Lincecum at the top of the rotation and they believe they have a window to contend for the next few years.

The Cubs, meanwhile, are in full-fledged rebuilding mode, and you can even argue that it hasn't really even started yet.  The Cubs have mostly cleared salaries and shipped off short-term players.  They have taken some flyers that may or may not pay off -- but they certainly are nowhere near completing that  foundation that can sustain long-term success.  If they can get Garza at Danks money, then they should do that.  If they wait and his price rises, their organization is not in a position to sign him to a multi-year deal that will approach $20M.  If it comes to that, they'll have to shift gears and see what they can get for him by the trade deadline.

Filed under: Rebuilding

Tags: John Danks, Matt Cain, Matt Garza

Comments

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  • I think Garza is one heckuva pitcher but no way in hell he gets that kind of money...If thats what he wants, I wager he gets dealt and soon

  • In reply to Luigi Ziccarelli:

    No way he deserves that kind of money right now, but another big year and I don't think he settles for Danks money.

  • In reply to John Arguello:

    There is no way I think he settles for Danks money even now....Lets hope some contender needs an arm really, really bad this season...

  • In reply to Luigi Ziccarelli:

    Honestly, I'm not sure I settle for it either if I'm him after I see what Cain just got.

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    I've always been in favor of trading him, but why not lock him up for 6 years at a hundred mil? We're a big market team. I think a lot of Cubs fans feel a long term deal automatically turns into another Soriano contact. You win some, you lose some, but he's durable and young.

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    In reply to mblum876:

    Exactly, it's not like the Cubs can't afford Garza. They don't have to trade him.

  • In reply to mblum876:

    I think the question here isn't so much whether the Cubs can afford him. They certainly can. But the question is do they want to sign him for that kind of money when his best years will come while they're still rebuilding?

    I was all for resigning him at Danks money, but if even approaches Cain's neighborhood, I think the Cubs really need to consider dealing him and see if they can get more building blocks in exchange.

  • No way does Garza deserve this money, in fact I say the Cubs hold off on offering him a extension for now. If the Cubs and Garza get off to a good start , fine. If the Cubs are not contending, then you can start taking trade offers from other teams.

  • In reply to Steve Flores:

    I think at this point both sides are probably going to wait it out a bit.

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    I think the Cain contract eliminated any chance of re-signing Garza now. It also may have slightly hurt Garza's trade value, as interested teams know there is little chance of re-signing him. We'll see what happens, but the Cubs seem to have dragged their feet too long.

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    Side note, the contract to Votto is the dumbest in baseball history.

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