There was a bit of an uproar when Dale Sveum decided to leadoff with Alfonso Soriano in an intrasquad game and then again for the spring training opener. In today's game he is in the cleanup spot.
Theo Epstein reassured us in his interview with Bruce Levine on Saturday that manager Dale Sveum understands the principles of lineup construction. At the same time, he reminds us that optimizing your team's lineup has a relatively small impact in terms of runs and ultimately wins over the course of a season.
The argument for batting Soriano leadoff has been that it's the position in the lineup in which he has been most productive. Curtis Shaw Flagg of "As I See It", makes this argument in his most recent article.
The statistics are intriguing...
Soriano has his highest lifetime OBP, batting average, and slugging percentage when he bats first in the lineup. If you can get that sort of production from him, it might be worth sacrificing a few OBP points (Soriano's lifetime OBP of .338 in the leadoff spot wouldn't be that far off any other alternatives the Cubs have in the lineup).
Arguments against batting him first in the lineup are that Soriano put those numbers up in the prime of his career. Yet Soriano has always put up better numbers in the leadoff spot even back when he was producing. Whenever they put him lower in the order, he didn't hit as well. Still, does anyone really believe Soriano can bat .288/.338/.538 anymore? Those are his career numbers in the leadoff spot. Last year, Soriano had an OBP of less than .300. That would add up to a whole lot more outs over the course of a season given the number of total plate appearances a leadoff hitter typically gets.
Even if we compromise between his preference for the leadoff spot and his decline in performance, and assume it's somewhere in between those two OBP numbers, it's still inadequate for a leadoff man.
But then you ask yourself, would a happier, slightly more productive Alfonso Soriano in 2012 help the Cubs by increasing what little trade value he has? Of course, batting him leadoff is no guarantee to increase his production, so this is all hypothetical but if you think he can put up better numbers and you really don't expect to win in 2012, might it not be in the best long term interests of the team to have a more tradeable Soriano? Would you trade a win or two this season if it meant finding a taker?
It's not as easy a decision as I initially assumed.
What about batting him cleanup?
Soriano's never really batted there and has only 62 PAs in his career. He's batted .196/.258/.339, which is awful, but it's a very limited sample size. The reason to bat him 4th is he still likely has the best power on the team and it will give him plenty of RBI opportunities. If he cashes in and has a productive start to 2012 it once again makes him more marketable.
Savvy teams will know those numbers are artificially created to some degree, but savvy teams aren't likely to trade for Soriano anyway, so that probably doesn't even factor into the equation.
If you're trying to field the best lineup in 2012 per new lineup construction theory, you wouldn't bat him in either of those spots. You'd probably bat him around 7th, which is where I had him in my lineup series earlier.
The question is how important is 2012? Maybe the best solution is a small compromise and you bat Soriano 5th or 6th. He'll get RBI opportunities and he'll have many chances to leadoff the 2nd inning if he bats 5th.
Lineup construction is one of the areas where Dale Sveum will have to make most of his decisions. His roster is pretty close to being set. His starting position players have pretty much already been decided, as have the first 3 spots in the rotation and most of the bullpen. We can expect Sveum to do a lot of tinkering this spring to try and find the lineup that best balances what works best for the Cubs now and in the future -- and Soriano's position in the lineup will be central to that decision.
Filed under: Lineup
Tags: Alfonso Soriano, lineups
7th or 8th. He's an out-making machine, so minimize his plate appearances.
If we're talking strictly 2012, I'd say 7th, but I know that won't happen so the choice comes down to 1st,4th, 5th or 6th. So then I think this: there's not going to be a huge difference in wins on the season whether he bats 5th or 6th, and it's not like there's a whole lot of options...do you bat him 5th to try and get his production levels up and make him happy and marketable?
In an American League team's lineup.
6th. For the Orioles.
LOL...I'm guessing both you and Ray picked other ;)
I think Fonzi would look great in a Siberian Tigers uniform. Where he bats for them, I don't care.
Ha! Unfortunately he'll almost certainly be in a Cubs uniform to start the season. I'm rooting for him to get off to a good start and hopefully he becomes a bit more tradeable. Nothing personal with Fonzi, but as a ballplayer he doesn't fit right now and I don't want to see him or Byrd prevent a younger player from getting ABs in the near future.
Well, if Soriano can be more productive at the 1 spot, then I'm all for it. Something like 10 more homeruns, 30+ more points on his batting average, and 40+ points more on his on base percentage. I know Soriano is not the ideal lead off man but his past stats in the lead off role are good. I don't blame the Cubs looking at this as an option. I like what the Cubs are doing though and they don't seem afraid to do anything. Plus, if his production does increase in the lead off role, then his trade value does increase. I'm sure management tried really hard to trade him this past offseason. I wouldn't be surprised he bats lead off and gets traded before the trading deadline.
That's the biggest argument I can think of...if they think he can be a more productive player in that spot then maybe it helps in the short term and increases his trade value to the point where they can deal him. Not looking for much. Best case scenario is what Yanks got for Burnett, which was some salary relief and some fringe prospects.
I initially was scratching my head at Soriano leading off as well but I then could see the logic of what they were doing. If you can truly increase his production by batting him leadoff, it may well be worth it. Whether you can or not is another story, but it does make some sense to at least consider.
I was too. I don't know if I'll really be happy with it, but it's not as horrific an idea as I first thought... maybe it's worth a shot. Who knows?
It's not like the Cubs have any legit lead-off candidates anyway. If it boosts his trade value, they might as well try it.
Phil Rogers says to bat him leadoff. That gives me undeniable proof that he should bat anywhere but leadoff. Bat him 6th
It's the George Costanza principle. Whatever he thinks, do the opposite.
Rogers's argument for batting him lead-off is that you maximize his offensive potential and minimize his defensive liabilities. By batting him first, you will likely get his 4AB's out of the way by the 6th or 7th inning, as opposed to maybe the 8th inning lower in the lineup. This maintains his offensive potential (or lack thereof). Sori can then be replaced by a better defensive outfielder an extra inning or two earlier, thus minimizing his defensive shortcomings. Viewed in that light, it makes some sense, I believe.
I will say that's a creative way of looking at it. If you plan on taking Soriano out of games early, I guess that also minimizes his plate appearances overall.
"But then you ask yourself, would a happier, slightly more productive Alfonso Soriano in 2012 help the Cubs by increasing what little trade value he has? " I totally agree, it would be a win-win for both parties, given he actually produces. I think Sori being happy is half the battle with his focus.
I think that's where you have to make that decision. If it helps and it leads them toward increasing his value, maybe it's worth it -- especially in you're not counting on 2012.
My guess though is that he winds up in the 5th spot.
I don't care where in the order Soriano bats, as long as it is for another team.
I'm thinking I should have had that as an option!
Definitely a gaff switching him from the leadoff spot originally. You have a guy telling you he's comfortable leading off, you switch him anyway, his numbers drop, you get mad at him for it. Reminds me of scouts and stats guys telling us 101 reasons Tim Tebow couldn't win at the NFL level. He finally gets his chance, he takes the Broncos to the playoffs. Some peeps forget that the stats are just a finger pointing. There's a lot of other things going on not least of which is the human element.
But at this point in his career I wouldn't bat him leadoff. First because he's not the guy I want getting the most AB's through the year and second because this year is less about winning than establishing a foundation for how we're going to win. Batting a low OBP guy leadoff isn't part of that foundation.
Interesting take in that you're setting a philosophy for how the team wants to do things. OBP should be one of the priorities and you should reward those players who do what they can to get on base.
Just seems to me that if you're building a team, even if you're missing some pieces you want the batting order to be as close to what it will be when you're competing. Get everyone used to what it feels like to win under that system. Like learning the triangle offense.
I like that thinking. I agree.
I simply want to applaud this front office for being as clever as they are. A happy fonzi may be a productive fonzi, and a productive fonzi is a tradeable fonzi. I tip my hat to these guys, and look forward to the future. We are finally in good hands...
If you haven't seen this yet it just might make you cry.....
http://network.yardbarker.com/mlb/article_external/chicago_cubs_win_world_series_windy_city_goes_wild_in_commercial_for_mlb_12_the_show_video/10244587
I did see that. It sends a chill up your spine to think how things would be. The Sox WS victory celebration would pale in comparison.
Count me in the "other" category. I had two wishes in the off season. One was to get rid of Big Z and the other to send Sori packing. You've got to think the front office made a serious run at trying to move him. With that being said I'd put him at leadoff if it increases his value. We need a desperate team to come calling.
They gave it a go, but it's not going to be easy. If the rumor is true that he only wants to go to a contender, it'll make it extra tough to trade him because it rules out teams like Baltimore and Seattle.
You don't ever want to wish injury on someone but perhaps someone gets hurt in spring training and it opens up a hole on a contending team. I know i'm wishing in one hand and crapping in the other but............stranger things have happened.
That may be the only chance we have of trading him before opening day. I don't think the need is that desperate right now. Unless the Cubs absolutely want to make room for Jackson, it's not like the Cubs are loaded with alternatives right now.
There are two priorities for this year:
1. Identify future assets and develop them
2. Create flexibility to bring up minor leaguers that are ready for a major league shot
In Soriano's case he's not part of the future, but he's not blocking anyone at leadoff. To create flexibility you need to move him as soon as possible. Historically he demonstrates the most value when he bats leadoff. Ergo, bat him leadoff.
Great logic. I'm starting to get convinced!
I was surprised to see that as the leading choice in the poll, although if you had included a bat elsewhere option, that would doubtless be the runaway choice :)
Elsewhere as in on another team? That would probably win. I'm thinking a lot of people want him to bat first in the hopes that he'll produce and they can trade him.
That's 2 HR for Soriano today. Think he wants to make a statement here?
He's killing it today. The double was also a very hard hit ball.
Good sign. He needs to provide punch in the lineup or he won't have any value.
As much as I would like to see Soriano get off to a great start to increase his value, he has one huge negative working against him, that in my opinion will make it impossible to trade him. He has 3 years left of a contract that takes him too far past his prime. NO team will want him 2 years from now at the price that contract will pay him, even if the Cubs are paying 85% of it.
I hate to say it, but the only way Soriano doesn't finish the season with the Cubs is if they release him.
Well if you wait until August and say it's about 2/3 of his salary paid, that leaves him with $42M owed. If the Cubs pay 85% that leaves $6M for 2+ years. If he gets off to a great start, I'm sure some team would take him for that money.
I beg to differ as well, I think if Soriano does get off to a good start , some teams will want him. As long as the Cubs are willing to pay the 85%, it's doable. Listen , if the Cubs can manage to have the Marlins take Zambrano off their hands, anything is possible.
Anything is possible if the Cubs are willing to pay 100% of Sori's salary like they did with Big Z.
I think batting him leadoff is the way to go. Obviously his obp is terrible, but the Cubs need to raise his value as much they can. Right now no one wants him at all. Even if they only get a couple million of salary relief it's something...
He's been a tough sell, but I think if he shows he's hitting the ball well someone might take a chance on him. He's shown as recently as last year that he can carry a team when he's hot. I'm more worried about the Cubs finding a contender for him than a team not taking him on for a few million.
Maybe leadoff is the way to go with Soriano, I haven't looked at the stats but maybe he doesn't like the pressure of batting with men on-base with a 2 out situation (usually the case with the 5th or 6th spot batter. Hopefully he winds up producing in that spot and will revitalize his career enough to be traded by the deadline.
I think he likes leading off because pitchers will come after him with more fastballs early in the count. Nobody wants to put the leadoff guy on. It allows him to be more aggressive and get more strikes. When men are on, pitchers exploit that aggressiveness and let him get himself out.
John, I wouldn't call it agressiveness...more like cluelessness!!! The guy has absolutely ZERO baseball smarts..a complete waste of his God Given Ability and it's a shame he's a Cub...Maybe Buck can con him into going to Baltimore
He's never had a great approach and while I wouldn't say he wasted his ability, he didn't get the most out of it. When Soriano was younger, even in his first couple of years with the Cubs, he had outstanding plate coverage. He could take a pitch off his shoetops and deposit it on Waveland. You could live with his approach then. He's not the same guy and now that those great natural skills have diminished, you'd like to see him compensate by waiting for better pitches.
John, most vets can compensate using their moxie or experience...Alfonso can't use what he can't comprehend..you are spot on though..it was tolerable in 2007 and 08...nothing since
Some guys never seem to get it. Soriano was a guy who really relied on some great skills but now that they're eroding, he hasn't adapted.
John, back in 2007/08 I really felt that the Cubs had 3 guys who could have had their numbers retired by the club one day in Lee, Ram and Soriano...boy was I drinking the cool aid..
Ha! It was a nice trio. It didn't last long. They all turned out to be good, but not great players (and Sori only for a couple of years)