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While it's never a good thing when you lose a 26 year old, cost-controlled arm like Chris Carpenter, young power bullpen pitchers are one area where the Cubs can take a hit. The system is loaded with relievers capable of throwing in the mid 90s or better and the list starts with major league arms Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, and Jeff Samardzija. But what about the depth in the organization? To avoid confusion and a lengthy list, I only chose pitchers who are strictly relief guys. Arms like Trey McNutt and Zach Cates may eventually end up in the bullpen, but the hope for now is that they'll be starters. Here are some power armed relievers to keep your eye on...
1. Rafael Dolis, 24
Dolis is the main reason the Cubs could afford to let Carpenter go. He's 2 years younger and the Cubs consider him the pitcher with the higher ceiling. At 6'4", 220 lbs., he's an intimidating presence on the mound and has hit 101 mph, though usually works in the mid to high 90s. What gives Dolis the edge, however, is better movement on his fastball, better command, and perhaps the best slider in the organization this side of Marmol. He has good sink on his fastball and throws with a hard downward plane. He's the long term favorite to take over as closer if and when the Cubs part ways with Marmol.
2. Tony Zych, 21
Zych was drafted in 2011 in the 4th round when some scouts had some concerns about his delivery. The Cubs don't seem as concerned as it adds some deception and makes it tougher to pick up his blazing fastball, which peaks at 99 mph but often sits around 95-97. Zych is an athletic pitcher and even though his delivery has some funk to it, he's able to repeat it surprisingly well, which enables him to have good command/control for a young power pitcher. He throws a hard mid 80s slider with potential, but it's not as consistent as Dolis' at this point. He's advanced enough to start at Daytona and could move up quickly if he pitches well. He has closer potential.
3. Marcos Mateo, 28
He's no longer a prospect, but he ranked 18th last year in Baseball America's list. He's likely to make the team since he's out of options and the Cubs have kept him on the 40 man roster over guys like Ryan Flaherty, then waived 3 other players (Jeff Bianchi, Manny Corpas, Blake DeWitt) rather than risk losing him. It's safe to say he has a very good shot of making the team. His fastball averages about 94 mph and peaks at about 97. His peripheral numbers were very good last season with a 3.29 FIP and 9.78 Ks per 9 innings pitched.
4. Lendy Castillo, 22
The Cubs Rule 5 pick, Castillo has what scouts call "easy velocity". He throws 94-96 mph effortlessly. He has the kind of athleticism the Cubs like, having started his career as a toolsy outfielder. As a pitcher, it helps him repeat his delivery and gives him above average control despite his relative inexperience. He struck out a batter per inning and finished with a 2.54 ERA (2.33 FIP). As you might expect from a converted pitcher, his secondary pitches lack consistency and he'll need to make some strides there to make the team this spring. The Cubs will have to offer him back to the Phillies if he doesn't make the opening day roster, although it's possible they could make a minor deal if they see long term potential.
5. Scott Maine, 27
When healthy, Maine has unusual velocity for a lefty, working at 93-95 mph and able to touch 97. He's struggled recently with injuries and has lost a tick or two off of that fastball. He also struggles to repeat his delivery and it hurts him with consistency when it comes to his slider and his command. He's going to have to show something this year with fellow lefty Jeff Beliveau rising quickly through the ranks.
6. John Gaub, 26
Another hard throwing lefty, Gaub can hit 96 mph but more often works at 91-93 mph. He has a filthy slider that has actually touched 90 mph in the past but last year averaged a still very hard 85 mph. He has legit swing and miss stuff, averaging 12.6 Ks per 9 IP in his minor league career and 10.14 in his brief major league stint last season. The problem? He doesn't always know where it's going and has averaged a Marmol-esque 5.8 walks per 9 innings pitched in his minor league career. Two years ago, one scout called him the best lefty reliever in the minors.
7. Casey Weathers, 26
Once the Rockies 6th rated prospect, Weathers has had arm trouble and problems with control and command. There's no questioning his arm strength, however. Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, Weathers tops out at 98 mph (sits at 95-96 mph) with a slider that can reach up to 88 mph. The bad news is that he makes Carlos Marmol look like Greg Maddux when it comes to control. He walked 48 batters in just 46 innings last year. He also struck out 48.
8. Marcus Hatley, 23
Hatley had a 1.76 ERA at Class A Daytona and struck out 11+ batters per 9 innings on the strength of fastball that touches 97 mph and a sharp breaking curveball. Like Weathers, he's a TJ survivor and didn't have good control before the surgery, so making progress afterward has been something of a challenge. More advanced hitters in AA and in the AZ Fall League didn't have nearly as much trouble with Hatley as the the Class A hitters did. He'll repeat AA and the hope is that his command improves in his 2nd year since missing the 2010 season with an injury. He has the stuff to be a set-up man.
9. Aaron Kurcz, 21
Kurcz generates a lot more velocity than you would expect from someone who 6'1" and 170 lbs, as he's able to touch 95 mph. He has struck out 11.4 batters per 9 innings in his brief minor league career. His slurve shows good break and he has had average control. The Cubs have tried him as a starter but he may move up more quickly now that the Cubs are likely to keep him in the bullpen.
10. Alberto Cabrera, 23
Cabrera entered the 2011 season as the Cubs 8th rated prospect after the Matt Garza trade but a disastrous year (6.60 ERA at AAA) bumped him all the way off the top 30. Like Mateo, however, he was kept on the roster as the Cubs kept adding players, so it appears they haven't given up on him yet. The Cubs were grooming him as a starter because he had the chance to have 3 above average pitches, including a 93-94 mph fastball that peaks at 97, but he never quite had the command to pull it off. He's also been hit harder than a pitcher with his stuff should and some think because it's too easy to see the ball coming out of his hand. Perhaps a permanent move to the pen and some tweaks to help give him a bit more deception may put him back in the Cubs plans. He's still only 23.
11. Manny Corpas, 29
Once able to throw in the mid 90s, he has battled injuries and lost some oomph on that fastball, but reports this winter suggest the velocity may be back. He was a top closer for Colorado's World Series team in 2007 when he had 19 saves and a 2.08 ERA. His control was a big factor in his success and has averaged 2.5 walks per 9 IP in his career.
Sleepers
Kevin Rhoderick, 23 - Doesn't throw quite as hard as most of the pitchers on this list, but he may have the best slider in the system. Rhoderick was 7-0 with a 3.47 ERA and struck out 9.2 batters/9 IP at AA Tennessee.
Blake Parker, 26 - Capable of touching 95. He struck out 10.5 batters per 9 IP at AAA Iowa last year. He has the tough mental makeup that new manager Dale Svuem will like, but he's a longshot as a non-roster invite to spring training
Larry Suarez, 22- As deep a sleeper as you'll find, Suarez is Zambrano-sized and throws as hard as you might expect from someone that big. He finally had some success as a reliever, finishing with a 3.48 ERA and reaching AA last season. He struck out 9.48 batters versus just 2.9 walks over 9 innings
All of these pitchers throw hard, but most need a lot of work on their command. If the Cubs can find 2-3 long term bullpen solutions in this mix, they would consider that a pretty successful outcome.
I good to have such a problem. Those that are not ready will be
by next year
You can never have enough good arms because most of them won't pan out, even guys as close to the majors as Chris Carpenter. The Cubs have a lot of strong arms and the hope is that a couple find enough command to be contributors. My money is on the first 2 pitchers on this list.
Agree, better than in past years when there was no one in AAA
to help at all. I hope the Rule V pick makes it.
There might be a spot open. He's really going to have to impress. Best case scenario is that they make a minor deal for him.
The Cubs are in the enviable posistion (unlike the White sox) of having several good reliever candidates. The one guy that intrigues and frustrates me is John Gaub , whenever I read about him the shadow of Rich Hill creeps up. Both pitchers has/had one great pitch pitch, for Hill it was a excellent curveball. Like Hill, Gaub can't seem to find the plate , I have a feeling that Gaub will never live up to his promise. I hope I'm wrong , because if he does turn it around, he might me the closer of the future with that wicked slider of his.
I think Rich Hill is a good comparison in the sense that they each have good stuff and a wicked breaking ball that is as unhittable as it is unpredictable. Hill never had strong mental makeup and that hurt his ability to overcome his struggles. But mental makeup won't matter if Gaub can't harness his stuff. If he does, he could be this year's camp surprise.
Is Beliveau not considered a power arm? I've never seen him pitch, but his career 11.8 K/9 would lead me to believe he can bring it.
His K rate would make you think he can throw 99, but surprisingly, he's more like 89 (peaks in low 90s). What Beliveau does well is hide the ball and create great deception, change speeds, and commands everything. Those things make his fastball really play up and look much faster than it is. He's more like Sean Marshall than he is like Rafael Dolis.
He's also the opposite of Alberto Cabrera who throws hard but is basically one speed, easy to pick up, has poor command and little movement. If you put Cabrera's arm on Beliveau, you'd have an unhittable RP. The contrast between the two is a good example of how velocity isn't everything.
Nice job, John. I'm actually feeling better about the Theo comp now then I was yesterday.
Thanks. It is an area of strength for the Cubs. Keep in mind that Carpenter is more likely to be a MLB RP than most of these guys. Only Mateo and Dolis are locks to be in the bullpen this year at some point and only Dolis and Zych have a good chance to be better pitchersdown the road. That's not to say that someone like Casey Weathers can't be better someday, but the odds of him making it are substantially less.
Off topic: Scott Kazmir apparently has 6 teams vying for his 86-89 MPH fastball. Is that insane? Or is that INSANE?!?! The guy is roadkill at this point. Why would anyone even offer him a major league contract?
It's insane. Lot of name value from his hype as a Mets prospect and then 3 solid years with Tampa. But an MLB deal is nuts, could live with a minor league deal, I suppose, but I don't see how he can consistently get major league hitters out anymore. He's lost 4 mph on his fastball and about 6 since his better years with Tampa.
I missed the part where name value became a component of FIP. Really glad the Cubs don't do business that way anymore.
It seems like that has to be the case, teams just hoping he'll pitch like he did 5 years ago, but he's a long way removed from being a good pitcher now.
Maybe the best you can hope for is that he makes a Jeff Francis-like comeback? That guy only throws 85 mph now.
But man, I agree. He was brutal in his last full season. Nothing numbers wise to indicate he'll come back strong.
Francis hasn't posted a BB/9 above 2 since 2008. Kazmir has a below average fastball AND below average control. If he makes a team this season, he's gonna get lit up like a Christmas Tree.
Good point. At least Francis never really relied on a big fastball and always had good control. Really hard to see what teams see in him unless something from the scouting side suggests he's regained some of his stuff. It's either that or they think they can magically resurrect the 2007 Scott Kazmir.
Good article over on CSN about available money for the draft. Seems the Cubs are not necessarily hurt as bad by the new agreement as many had thought..John- let us know your take on theis by Andraki
I mentioned it briefly in one of the news and notes sections a while back. I know what it's intended to do but I'm not sure it won't hurt the Cubs a little. Each pick is slotted and Cubs wouldn't have been able to take some of the chances they did. Hard to say how it will play out, though, but I think teams will be conservative with picks after the first round.
John - I always enjoy reading your articles, but this one was one of my favorites! Good job!
Thanks!
Wow. Great article. Thanks for writing it.
Your welcome -- and thanks! Glad you enjoyed it!