Sometimes you get lucky. I wrote an article back on the 7th naming Chris Carpenter as the likely compensation for Theo Epstein. Today that is indeed what happened.
How do I feel about it?
Relieved but not exactly jumping for joy. Carpenter is the 3rd arm the Cubs have lost from their projected 2012 bullpen (Cashner and Marshall were the others). It was also the worst case scenario (not including the Boston unrealistic scenarios, of course, which had us giving up Matt Garza, Starlin Castro, and the 1908 World Series rings).
Carpenter has great stuff, but it's inconsistent and his command is hit or miss. He's the kind of guy you can dream on with his 100 mph fastball and good slider but also infuriate you with sloppy command and unsteady velocity. I think a starter is unrealistic, but a late inning reliever, even a closer, is not too far-fetched. Of course, Carpenter may just end up a middle reliever as well.
The Cubs have always liked Rafael Dolis better. His velocity is more consistent, his command is better, and he has more ridiculous movement on his slider. There's also the steal of Tony Zych in the 4th round of the 2011 draft. That gives the Cubs two hard-thowing replacements that may be up in the next couple of years. Dolis should be ready this year and it's not out of the question that Zych will be ready in 2013.
On the other side, Carpenter gives Boston an arm they can boast about to their fan base. Aside from the aforementioned great raw stuff, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com rated him as the Cubs 5th best prospect. He's major league ready, so they'll see him soon -- possibly by opening day. There's plenty of room for them to spin Carpenter as a major..make that "significant" acquisition.
If I had to say who "won" this deal, I'd say it depends on how you look at it. The Cubs picked up an executive who is already turning the franchise around for a hard throwing reliever with questionable command -- an area where the Cubs have plenty of depth. But the Red Sox never really expected to get Garza or Castro. They were angling for Trey McNutt, but my guess is they were willing to settle for Carpenter when it came down to it. They got better compensation than what the Marlins got for Ozzie Guillen and what the Twins got for McPhail. In that sense, they did very well.
What's your take? Cast your vote in the poll on the right hand rail and/or give us your comments!
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Hey, John, don't forget, as based on many reports, that this is not yet a completely done deal. There are still the PTBNLs. If we get a better prospect in that part than we give up, then it reduces our "loss" and diminishes Boston's "gain". Seen in its entirety, it may still be better than it is right now, from our POV.
That's true, but I don't want to forecast that as one way or the other. It could be Boston getting the better player. My guess is that it's an even deal where each team gets a better fit for their organization. This is Cherington and Theo who worked it out -- those guys will handle it fairly.
I don't know if this is too late after the comment outage, but,
From the way the Tribune put it that this was "procedural," it appears that the only point was that there has to be a trade for players, not a trade of a player for a general manager. Thus, we have a three player deal.
Since it also said that Selig was out of it, I assume that the players to be named later would be an even swap.
That's pretty much how I see it too.
Comment outage is resolved and all is normal again.
QT @Buster_ESPN: About the Theo compensation: Boston's ownership made a mistake in not settling compensation before he walked out the door.
Both teams botched it in my opinion, but because it was Boston's intention to hold Theo for ransom, I think they botched it up a bit more.
I want to believe that Theo and Jed saw something that the rest of us didn't by giving up Carpenter. I don't like it, but it is what it is. Would have preferred Vitters be given away. Oh well. Glad he shenanigans are finally over. Lucchino can go back and rant about this now and act like he won.
FWIW, Cubs have always liked Dolis better -- even gave him a call up over Carpenter last September. Zych may end up being better than both of them.
Now that Theo's compensation has pretty much been settled, any idea on how long it will be until we can get Jed's comp out of the way?
The word is 24 hours. Looks like a deal was probably already in place.
I have no problem with this deal at all. The cubbies gave up a power thrower who has spotty control for a change in cultural. I like it...
In the grand scheme of things, you have to think the Cubs did well -- but Boston got a cost controlled reliever for one year of Theo.
The Cubs have Wood, but no Carpenter.
Always look forward to the Aquinas Wired word play!
No use now, might as well throw it into the Dempster
Haha!
I'm just glad this is over, while I'm not happy we had to give up Carpenter...I'm not that bummed either. He's a good, not great prospect...less that what the Red Sox really wanted.
Get the feeling he was their least guy they would settle for and the guy the highest guy the Cubs would give up.
I really don't think that losing Carpenter is that big of a deal. He’s a reliever with command issues, and who looked awful in AAA last year. I was once a huge fan of Carpenter, but have since cooled quite a bit, since he transitioned to the pen. I’m just fine with losing him.
Frankly, he possibly/probably wouldn't have even made the Cubs' pen out of ST.
A relief prospect is a dime a dozen, imo. Congrats, Boston.
The PTBNL, on the other hand, well… let’s just hope this all ends soon…
He had a shot, but it wouldn't have been easy. Marmol, Samardzjia, Wood, and Russell were locks. Leaves three spots at most. One for a second lefty (Beliveau, Gaub, Maine) and Mateo is out of options so he has a pretty good shot as well. And you have to think the loser of the Wood, Volstad, Wells derby would get the last spot.
Now that wasn't so hard, was it....ha! Glad that's over with. I think the deal was fine. At 26 years old, I hardly considered Carpenter a prospect. We also must not forget that it's not just Theo that we got in return. It's Theo and all the other fine folks that he brought with him, that now give the Cubs a top tier front office and overall baseball organization.
I wouldn't go so far as to say non-prospect, but I get what you're saying. He's almost in his peak years and he's still basically a minor league RP, which makes him far less valuable than Dolis, for example, who's both better and younger.
Color me upset here. I don't like the fact we had to give up Carpenter regardless of whether he turns out to be a serviceable player or not. I keep getting hung up on the fact that Theo had only one more year in Boston.
I guess the question I have on this is why does the compensation have to be player related? I think that Bud should incorporate a rule that all GM/Front office related compensation should be compensated via cold hard cash.
If that were the case would Theo be in Chicago right now? The Sox may have kept him around if they didn't have grand illusions of getting a valuable player in return.
I really consider this a win/win. The Cubs got the guy they wanted to run the organization and the Sox got something in return that may or may not become a valuable piece of their club. Had the Cubs had to wait another year for Theo they may have went in a different direction (and who knows if that would have been better or worse).
I guess my point is.... Why should they even have the illusion they are getting a valuable player in return. Shouldn't they have researched past compensation reocords I.E. (McFAIL) and realized the chances of this prospect even being on the 40 man roster would be a stretch. If they were arguing that Theo's value was worth a player off the 40 man roster, they sure did a good devaluing him in the papers after it was a foregone conclusion he was out the door. And I think most here believe the Boston front office has some influence on the slant of articles that were generated after Theo left.
I think it's too much as well, but I'm not surprised. Boston was hung up on the word significant and Carpenter can fit that definition. In the end, it's about what I expected.
Is there anything we can do about the software? I've tried to make multiple posts over the past week or so, only to get a response like "you are posting messages too quickly. Please slow down."
It takes me a while to craft a thoughtful post, and having problems with the software is pretty frustrating, as it doesn't allow me to go back, copy it, and try to paste it again. I suppose I'll have to do that every time try to post now - it's pretty frustrating.
I'm sorry about that. Wish I could have read it. I'll forward this concern to Jimmy. Perhaps there's something that can be done or maybe he has some suggestions.
May I ask which internet browser you use?
I'm using Chrome. I've re-written it, and will try to post again. Still getting the same error report, but at least copied it beforehand. Will try to post it again here, shortly.
That's the one I use. Hmm. I've forwarded your complaint to Jimmy who is our community manager. Promise that as soon as I hear back from him I'll let you know.
I use IE, and every time this happens to me I hit the refresh button, & then resubmit. If it doesn't work right away, I open up a new tab to continue my browsing, then try again later. It always works, eventually, but often on the first retry.
It happens to me in Firefox all the time too. "You are posting too quickly, slow down." or some such message. Generally I walk away with my head down, sobbing. :)
I've been told that the issue has been fixed!
Agreed. I (and others) have had this problem for a while on this site.
My trick is: I just copy every comment, assuming that it is going to say I'm going to quickly. Then I just paste it in and wait longer the next time.
Also, I usually write my post, then go read some of the other posts for a short time and then come back. It usually goes through becuase I'm not doing it "too quickly" then. Hope that helps!! Although to be fair, it would be nice if the software didn't do it at all.
I've done that before, but if you forget to, my method always works as well.
Are the PTBNL's likely to be players who were drafted in 2011? I just can't understand why else they would swap PTBNL's in this deal.
It's possible, but not necessary. Should be an even talent deal. More of a formality in the same way the Sox sent some no-name prospect to Miami as part of comp deal.
Cubs Projected Bullpen 2012 (as of today):
CL - Carlos Marmol
SU - Kerry Wood
SU - James Russell
MR - Jeff Samardzija (pending stellar ST performance)
MR 2 and 3 - two of the following:Jeff Beliveau, John Gaub, Scott Maine, Marcos Mateo, Lendy Castillo, Andy Sonnanstine, Alberto Cabrera, Trever Miller, Manny Corpas, Rodrigo Lopez, Casey Weathers, Rafael Dolis, Casey Coleman
LR - Randy Wells
Losing Carpenter marginally affects our depth. I'm not too worried going forward, as I said a relief prospect is (often) a dime a dozen
Unless he turns into a top set up guy or closer, its not a big loss -- but even good relievers are often replaceable. In that sense, it was pretty fair.
The Cubs are having a bunting competition, its no wonder they ranked 28th out of 30 teams in sacrifice bunts with 69. SanDiego led the majors with 170. It will be interesting to get a view in the rear view mirror at end of season how much they improve on the basics.
I'm looking for those little things as improvements with the expectation that they will add to bigger things overall. These Cubs aren't going to outhit last year's Cubs, but they can play better baseball. Really looking forward to it.
I'm not upset it's Carpenter but I don't think they should have received a player of his potential, period. Boston controlled Theo's future, if they wanted him they only had to deny the Cubs permission to talk to him. Lucchino cried like a baby and Selig seemed to have sided with Boston, at least from all appearances.
I also think MLB did Carpenter a disservice by waiting until today to announce this. This should have been decided a week ago or long before that. Making Carpenter travel to AZ, check in with the Cubs, and practice for 2 days, then tell him to pack up and ship out to Florida is stupid. If they announced it last week it wouldn't have created a hassle for Carpenter. I know that's a minor issue, but it would have been simple to avoid.
I actually thought the same thing. Why wait to send a pitcher after they've already reported to ST?
I think the Carpenter news stings a bit because he is more of a "known" quantity. We know that he is capable of throwing consistently in the high 90's, and while that isn't as rare as it used to be, it is atypical for a guy to reach triple digits like he is. We also know that it wasn't all that long ago that Carpenter was being touted as a top-of-the-rotation prospect. It hurts to lose a guy with that kind of potential. It hurts a little bit because he's the second such guy to be moved this off-season, though Cashner fetched Rizzo in return.
But I've had some time to think about it (and now write this for the third time). There are other things we know about Carpenter. First, his lack of command has practically ruined his chances of being a starting pitcher, and now his upside rests as a late-inning reliever. We also know that he is a 26 year-old who has not been able to crack the Cubs' pitching staff - and we're talking about the Cubs here. They could use some pitching, even with a pretty solid bullpen last year. There is no guarantee that he makes Boston's staff out of spring training, and if they try to stretch him back into a starter, that will further delay his rise to the majors.
I don't expect the PTBNL's to be much of a factor. I expect both guys will be low-minor ballplayers with some upside, but certainly no guarantees at reaching the majors. Hindsight will win out, of course, and in ten years we might be able to determine a "winner" from this situation. However, if Epstein is able to turn this into a respectable franchise that challenges for titles like I think he will, giving up a relief pitcher will definitely have been worth it.
Woohoo! It posted!
First off great thoughts...secondly, just heard back and they're looking into it. Seems they thought they fixed the problem in the past and it has resurfaced. Will keep you updated.
I agree in the grand scheme that losing Carpenter doesn't register very high on the Richter Scale. I don't like it because you want to have as many good arms as possible, but I can live with it -- especially if Theo, Jet, etc bring this team into the modern era and make them a consistently competitive team.
The strength of the Cubs minor league system is power bullpen arms, so it's not as damaging to the system as losing an SP prospect like McNutt would of been. Carpenter has a great arm, but right now is a two-pitch reliever with control issues. From a fan's perspective, losing a 7th or maybe 8th inning guy for the amount of excitement and optimism the new regime has brought to Cubs fans this off-season is totally worth it!
Agreed. Cubs are short on SPs and McNutt or even Dae Un Rhee or Dallas Beeler would have been a bigger blow.
Nice, john. I have to say i just hate that instead of the sox apologizing to their fans about screwing so much up, they bitch about getting a top prospect till they get him. THAT'S how they show their fans they did nothing wrong, that it was the cubs fault. They can mask losing theo, but they'll have to answer valentine for francona in a few months when they see what a joke he is & the fans want some significant answers. The higher ups out there deserve the clouds that're coming their way which will be dark, ominous, & shaped like yakees, rays, & blue jays. They're a friggin joke & all the respect i had for them is, thankfully, with us now.
Have a lot of respect for Cherington, not so much for Lucchino and the ownership.
Two quick thoughts:
1) It sounds like people on both sides are grumbling a little but not a lot, and neither side is jumping for joy. To me that sounds like market economics and a fair and balanced trade then, no?
2) What do you think was the impetus to get this done before Bud could get it done for them? I feel like one of the sides heard something from Bud's camp they didn't like and so they caved at the last second. Wish I knew which side that was.
1) Agreed. I don't like it. But given how this played out, it's acceptable and fair.
2) My feeling is that the Cubs gave in a little bit. To me Carpenter was the top end of what comp should have been. Boston seemed okay with him and Cubs would probably rather risk a bullpen arm than a potential starter like McNutt or even Rhee.
John: Congrats for nailing the prediction. The announcement got me reflecting back on Jonathan Mayo's MLB.com list of the top 20 prospects in the Cubs minor league organization. I was very surprised to see Carpenter at # 5 on that list; after expecting to see names such as Rhee, Beliveau, Cates somewhere on the list(not to mention Castillo-and Chen over Ha?) Two questions: now that you are on a prediction roll; who jumps into that list now; and who will be headed to San Diego for Hoyer/McLoud compensation?
Thanks. I'd been thinking Carpenter for a while, almost since the beginning. Just made sense.
Wasn't crazy about Mayo's list either. Overall, Carp's not really a top ten guy.
I Keith Law's article about Carpenter as compensation, in the comments section, he replied to someone asking about San Diego comp by saying that they weren't going to get anything.
I assumed all along that they were going to get something but I really respect Law too.
John, have you heard anything like this too? Is it possible that since Moorad wanted Byrnes that they don't receive any comp?
Here are the quotes:
anovick1
So now with the Cubs- Red Sox compensation figured out, don't the Cubs have to give the Padres compensation for their GM Hoyer, and when?
K_Law
No, they don't. Hoyer was allowed to leave (as was McLeod) without any promise of compensation.
pulmboy02
Keith, you are the man so I trust that you're right, but the Padres beat writer in the Union-Tribune has been saying in his chats that compensation for Hoyer will be worked out after compensation for Epstein is settled. Not sure if this is right or not, but I won't hold my breath since the compensation would be less than what the Red Sox got for Epstein anyway. Good job with the excellent prospect reports.
K_Law
That's news to me. Moorad made it clear he wanted Byrnes as his GM, so there's no reason for compensation to go back anyway.
I hope that's true. Cubs may give them someone though. If nothing else than because Ricketts and Moorad are friends. Wouldn't expect more than a lower level prospect, though -- or maybe someone off the bottom of the 40 man roster.
Test.
Did I pass?
Lol! Of course you passed John. All suckin up aside, this is the best cubs site out there by far.
Agreed- keep up the non-fluff, john. You're all fact, no crappy negative opinion which is all the other sites dish out.
Thanks to both of you guys for that!
Had same posting problems a couple hours ago. Figured I'd wait til I got home from work. Lol. I guess I'm ok with this comp. Any pitcher who throws that hard with inconsistent stuff and hit or miss command seems a candidate for elbow/arm/shoulder issues IMO. Personally I think it's an overpay, but it doesn't matter what I think. Certainly could have been worse.
People need to remember how poorly Carpenter reacted after he was sent back down after his ML callup. He pouted and pitched very badly. I think that attitude made him completely dispensable in the Cubs' eyes. It was the perfect compensation for us: eye-popping talent with a bad attitude. Let the BoSox try to make something out of him-the Cubs would much rather put the money and time into Dolis.
He also didn't like it when the Cubs didn't call him up in Sept. Can't say I blame him, though. There's a video of Ben Cherington talking about Carp. Kept calling him a power arm. He doesn't sound thrilled, though.
http://www.redsoxlife.com/2012/02/cherington-talks-carpenter-acquisition.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
There was a point in time where Red Sox Nation could've sold Carpernter to their fan base as a future closer. Too late for that. Now it just seems like he could battle with Mark Melancon to replace Bard as the setup man.
I was in Boston over the weekend, and really wish I still was to hear what all of them have to say. Boston is one of the few places where the fans are even more isolated from reality than most Chicago fans. Tim Wakefield's retirement the other day bummed all of them out. It was front page news of both the Globe and Herald. Cherington wasn't going to invite him back, regardless.
I walked by a couple of Bostonians in a Dunkin Doughnuts who said "What old guy are we gonna bring back to replace him, Kevin Millwood?". I couldn't stop laughing, and they took notice. I guess one of them thought it was a comeback to say "Hey, what's in that watah bottle ya got der, some peppahmint schnapps?".
LOL..I know of a couple Boston fans myself. Interesting to say the least. The world revolves around that team.
Carpenter is a classic rocket arm, but not much competitor. Saw him in the Arizona Fall League, he looked like he couldn't care less about being there. I hardly think he is what Boston had on their minds when they absurdly drew this process out for so long. Really bad precedent for baseball also, Theo got a promotion. Bad karma for sox, good for Cubs.
That's not who they had in mind at first, but as things got so protracted, I got the feeling he was a guy they would settle for and that it was about the most Theo would be willing to give up.
This made me happy. I just saw Carpenter as a bit of an annoyance with little value to the organization. They could have had Jay Jackson for a bag of chips as well. And not even a value-sized one.
As much as I like Carpenter's arm, I'm glad the Cubs were able to keep the few starters they have. I think I would have been more upset if McNutt, Rhee, Beeler, or Wells would have been taken -- even if their odds of making it are a lot lower.
I don't like the idea of having more than 1 100mph arm in the bullpen, as odd as that may sound, and Dolis is simply the better prospect for that.
Great.....There goes the season!
The loss of Carpenter is better than I expected , I would have liked a lower level prospect. I think the Red Sox made enough of a stink that I knew that they would get somebody decent, Carpenter is the one decent guy the Cubs don't mind parting with
I actually blame him for his temper tantrum when not called up in Sep. He didn't deserve it because his performance in AAA was so terrible after he was sent back down. Just because you can throw 99 doesn't mean you are guaranteed a major league career
Good point. He didn't exactly merit a call-up.