The signing deadline is now less than 5 hours away for players selected in June's amateur draft and if you look at the Cubs' website list of signings, the situation seems dire. It's not nearly as bad as that seems. The Cubs cannot announce over slot signings right away, so some of these players are already signed. I've written about some signings (or at least agreements to sign), so I'll just do a quick re-cap of the situation on some of the Cubs key picks. What's especially exciting about this draft is the talk that Tim Wilken, the Cubs scouting director, was pretty much given a blank check to not only draft, but also to sign whomever he wants. If the Cubs can sign all the players on the following list, it's going to be a major shot in the arm for an already improving farm system. Here's what we have so far on those that aren't officially signed...
1. Javier Baez (SS): There had been some rumors that he has already signed, but the person who reported it, Kendall Rogers of Perfect Game, may have jumped the gun a bit here. He's still expected to finalize the deal and sign today. UPDATE: Baez has signed for $2.625M
2. Dan Vogelbach (1b): Vogel-bomb has already agreed to terms but the signing bonus was well above slot, rumored to be as much as a first rounder. We'll hear the official announcement at some point today. UPDATE: Vogelbach has signed for $1.6M
4. Tony Zych (RHP): Zych was ranked as a 2nd round talent but slipped to the 4th round. He has also agreed to terms and we will hear of his signing today. UPDATE: Zych has signed for $400,000.
5. Tayler Scott (RHP): An intriguing right-hander from South Africa, Scott has signed for $279, 950 (about 100K above slot.)
7. Trevor Gretzky (OF-1B): Gretzky has also signed for well over slot, $375,000
8. Taylor Dugas (OF): Will be a tough sign, he looks like he's headaing to Alabama. Good little player, but size may limit him to 4th outfielder status. UPDATE: Taylor Dugas will go back to Alabama
9. Garrett Schlecht (OF-1B): Schlecht has signed for $235,ooo. I even have a picture of it on this post!
10. Daniel Lockhart (SS): Lockhart has already told Kennesaw State that he will not be attending and has agreed to terms with the Cubs. UPDATE: Lockhart has signed. Reported amount is $395,000. That's bigger than I expected. The Cubs must really like this kid. Has baseball bloodlines, son of former major leaguer Keith Lockhart.
11. Shawon Dunston (OF): Dunston has a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. He's got about a 50/50 shot of signing and we probably won't hear anything until closer to 11 p.m. UPDATE: Shawon Dunston signs for $1.25M. Wow. Nice work by junior. Kevin Goldstein of BP calls it a fair deal, though.
14. Dillon Maples (RHP): UPDATE: Maples has signed for 2.5M. Big signing for the Cubs as it essentially gives them 2 first rounders, possibly 3 if you include Vogelbach.
25. Roderick "Rock" Shoulders (1B): Shoulders has signed for $294,000. Big power hitting first baseman somehow slipped in the draft but that signing bonus indicates that the Cubs considered him at least a 3rd round talent.
39. Ricky Jacquez (RHP): Has been compared to Tom Gordon for size and velocity. Would have been around a 3rd rounder if he weren't known to be such a tough sign. Chances are less than 50/50 that we'll get him. He actually tweeted "Texas Bound!" at one point. Whether that's actually true or he's just messing with the twitter-verse remains to be seen. UPDATE: Jacquez is going to Texas
41. Austin Urban (RHP): Urban has signed for $100,00. Many expected him to go back to school but he likely would have gone in the top 10 rounds had teams been more clear on his intentions. A similar rated JUCO pitcher in terms of size, stuff, and overall ranking went in the 8th round.
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I'm no too worried John, it looks like a lot of teams are in the same boat. I think we are going to see a load of signings at the last second.
This system stinks. I know they're planning on changing it, but it's ridiculous that everyone has to wait for the deadline to either a) sign first round picks and b) hear about over slot signings that have already happened.
I'm not worried. With the guys who have signed or who are expected to sign, this already looks like a very good draft. The 3 guys that could turn this into an excellent draft are Dillon Maples, Ricky Jacquez, and Shawon Dunston.
I think it was a better system when teams could draft a kid out of high school and hold his rights for three years.
I agree that it is better for the teams, not so much for the players.
The system is going to be revamped again before next year, but I don't expect huge changes. A lot of teams want hard-slotting like the NBA but I don't think it will happen. Amongst other changes, they may move the deadline up so that players can sign and actually get some baseball in before the year is out.
This was an odd year, though. There's a lot of talent and the Cubs selected a lot of hard signs. They selected at least 13 players that should have been picked in the first 10 rounds and as many as 7 that could have been picked in the first 3.
I don't see them moving the date up. Do you want your GM dealing with this right before or right at the non-waivers trade deadline? Maybe the draft should be moved to the offseason like the NFL, NBA and NHL. Then, when you draft and sign a kid, you get the benefit of having them from day one.
I'm not sure it would hurt so much. Hendry doesn't really run the draft anymore. He's left that to Wilken and his staff -- as he should. I think a deadline at some point in July could work.
Hard slotting would hurt the Cubs, as would an international draft. I hope neither make it into a new CBA. This team seems to finally get that it can and should use its economic might to hoard the best prospects. Now we just need to improve on their attrition rate through the system and all will be well. Not that I have any ideas on how to do that.
The Cubs are now one of the teams that will take a player later in the draft that slipped because of signability. If there was hard-slotting a guy like Maples would have been selected late in the first round or the supplemental. They've done it in the past with players like Sean Gallagher (since traded for Harden), James Russell, and top pitching prospects Trey McNutt and Nick Struck for starters. This year they went all out and stocked up, taking quite a few guys with signability questions.
I think the Cubs could compete in an international draft. They have shown the last couple of years that they are willing to go toe-to-toe for some of the best Dominican, Venezuelan, and South Korean prospects. But I think that type of draft would help teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers even more.
The system, flawed and frustrating as it is, does work for the Cubs. But I do hope they tweak it somewhat to get the players in sooner.
So it seems like #s 8, 11, 14, & 39 all appear to be questionable. If they sign 2 of those 4 guys where would you rank the draft class? Seems like an awful lot of guys with 3 round & better talent.
That's a good, tough question...I don't think they'll sign #8 (Dugas) or #39 (Jacquez). Without those two guys I'd rate it as one of the top 5 or 6 in the game, though it's hard to be precise not knowing who will sign for other teams too. For example, the Pirates are probably going to lose 2nd round pick Josh Bell to college-- Law thinks he'll be a top 5 pick in 3 years. If they had been able to snag both Gerrit Cole and Josh Bell, we could rank the Pirates high just on those two picks along.
The only things holding them back were not getting a blue-chipper at the top like Starling, and scouts seem divided on Vogelbach and DeVoss. I read where one scout thought the Cubs ranked right up there with Boston -- but from the 4th round on down. If the Cubs are right about their first 3 picks, however, it could rank even higher in time.
It's hard to put them at the top though because Tampa had all those picks in the first 2 rounds, Arizona had two picks in the top 7 and used them very wisely.
This draft class is becoming very exciting, though costly.
I love all the pitching prospects coming in, some of these guys have to pan out as starters...right?
But if Hendry doesn't start calling up young guys, things are going to start becoming rather congested...
The Cubs seemed to get a nice balance of speed, power, and potential from all of their hitting picks, and a nice dose of upside with their pitchers. Can I get your thoughts on the Cubs' draft overall?
I think the Cubs have had a very good draft so far. If they sign Maples and Dunston, it will be the best one they've had since the Dallas Green/Gordon Goldsberry team in the early 80s, in my opinion. If they get Maples and Dunston (and it looks good so far that they will sign), I'd give them an A for a deep, balanced draft. I will have more on this when the deadline passes as to what kind of impact this draft will have on the Cubs organization.
The key was Ricketts sticking to his word and doing whatever it takes to get some of these college commits to sign. Wilken and his staff were able to take some chances they wouldn't normally be able to take. Everybody I've talked to has been pretty giddy about what the Cubs have done this year as far as accumulating amateur talent.
How many of these kids wind up as top 10 prospects for next season? I'd imagine Baez for sure (assuming he signs), and my other guesses are Vogelbach and Dillon Maples. Who do you think cracks the top 10?
Those are the only 3 that have a chance to make the top 10, in my opinon. Baez will be top 3. If Jacquez had signed, I'd have considered putting him in my top 20.Several others could make the top 30, though not playing might hurt their chances.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/805046-mlb-draft-modest-proposals-for-the-future
This is an interesting proposal. I don't see the point about going over slot once every four years. I think a better idea would be to put a cap on overall expenditure based on what MLB thinks each team should spend per round. I do like the idea of taking the JUCO loophole out. I think it would clear a lot of the mess up. I also think the draft should be moved until after the CWS, but I'm not sure about the changing the signing deadline.
Shawon-O-Meter Jr. is in the fold: https://twitter.com/#!/KendallRogersPG/status/103279040877694976
Thanks! Just went out to take a break. Just two big ones are left-- Baez and Maples...
What do you make of that 7 figure signing bonus? Do the Cubs see him as second round talent?
I think it says that they're willing to build for the future, no matter the cost. As well, they feel that they got all the guys they wanted, and aren't going to let them slip out of their grasp.
Dunston is just a high schooler, will play next season at 19, and likely profiles as a 4th outfielder, assuming Jackson, Sczcur, and Golden all pan out.
This team is developing a ton of speed. Hopefully we can start teaching the kids the art of the walk as well. Let's clog those basepaths.
Hard to say at this point if he's a second round talent, but he has the potential to develop into that kind of player or better. Part of it was his current production, part of it is projection, and part of it was a premium to buy him out of Vandy.
For what it's worth, Kevin Goldstein of BP called it a "fine signing".
I've no complaints about the money - if that means getting the guys you want, then go do it. Here's to hoping the Cubs are taking the extra cash they anticipate saving from Zambrano's suspension and hitting Maples upside the head with it.
Absolutely. This is about the Cubs making a real investment in their future. I haven't been this excited about a draft in a long time. Cubs acting like a serious team with both the draft and the international signing period.
Taylor Dugas officially going back to Alabama. That was not unexpected.
I feel like that's not a big loss. We have enough 4th outfield types in our farm system already. If we get Baez and Maples done, this will be a great draft
Agreed. I've heard Baez is just about done while PG says that source told them that, "it's not a matter of if with Maples, it's a matter of when..."
that's awesome.
Update on guys who've already signed...
9th round draft pick Garrett Schlecht went 1 for 5 in his debut today in the AZL.
Zeke DeVoss continues to be a walk machine: 21% walk rate, .450 OBP
For the players that signed today, when should they be expected to make their debuts?
It really depends. Some players may not make their debuts until 2012. Probably no earlier than this weekend. Schlecht, for example, signed back on Aug. 2nd but just had his debut today. Tayler Scott signed on the 10th and has not played yet. It's part of the reason nobody likes the late signing deadline.
Yeah the deadline kind of delays the potential impact these guys can have. Getting some at-bats and playing time right now could really benefit them going into next season.
Javier Baez has signed for $2.625M
Cubs signed Dillon Maples for $2.5M...Woohooo...and wow, that's a lot of money for a 14th rounder.
In regards to the deadline and players not playing ball, it has been proposed that rookie ball be moved to the winter, which wouldn't be hard to do since those leagues are in Arizona and Florida anyways.
That could work. Even having the season starting in August and going through October would work since it's just short-season ball anyway. I read that piece you sent on the suggested changes. What I'm hearing, though, is that any change being made will be nominal and the draft won't change a whole lot from what it is now.
I didn't agree with everything in that piece, but I thought he suggested some things worth considering. Also, I don't think an international draft hurts the Cubs at all because of the investments they've already made overseas. I would say it is neutral at worst, and it might even help them in some instances.